Thread by @joshuawongcf

[#AntiELAB Movement vs #UmbrellaMovement: are #HKers walking on the old path?]

1.1/ #HK's protests have indeed reduced due to the #COVID19 and the #NationalSecurityLaw. #HKGov mass arrests protestors, and crackdown on the education, mass media, medical and judicial industries.

1.2/ But, NO, we're not walking the old path of division between different sides in the pro-democracy bloc. In fact, we're winning. Here's why:

2/ In 2014,
- 70% of polls call for the occupation to stop
- Division within Pro-democracy bloc
- Average results in the District Council Election
- Pro-Beijing bloc gained 57% seats in Legislative Council
- #CCP's economic diplomacy is doing well
- Few countries support HK

3.1/ From 2019 till now,
- pro-democracy bloc swept 85% of the seats in the District Council Election
- it's likely for the pro-democracy bloc to gain more than half of the seats in the Legislative Council Election, which forced the #CCP to cancel the election

3.2/ Polls did by Hong Kong Public Opinion Institue request by @Reuters showed that
- 70% support an independent investigation committee
- 63% support universal suffrage of the Legislative Council and Chief Executive
- 58% support Carrie Lam to step down

3.3/
- 56% oppose the riot characterization of the #antiELAB Movement
- 49% support the release of the arrested people
- 60% oppose the #NationalSecurityLaw
- 31% support the #NationalSecurityLaw
- 57% vote for pro-democracy candidates
- 25% vote for pro-government candidates

4.1/ Normally, public opinion of social movements will reverse after a while, like the #UmbrellaMovement, #BlackLivesMatter and the #YellowVests. But after a year, the majority of public opinion is still on the protestors' side ...

4.2/ Heat of the #antiELAB Movement after the gazette of the #NationalSecurityLaw at 11 pm on 30 June 2020
- Jul 1: over 100k people took to the streets
- Jul 11-12: over 610k people vote in the democratic preliminary election

4.3/
- Aug 12: 530k copies of @appledaily_hk were sold & 282 tocks are sold after
@JimmyLaiApple was arrested
- Aug 27: all #HKers dressed in black to say no to the Police rewriting what happened on 21 Jul 2019
- Aug 31: hundreds mourned for the #831PrinceEdwardAttack

5.1/ Gobal reactions
🇺🇸: Sanctioning #HK and #CCP officials and change "made in HK" to "made in China"
🇬🇧: Banned the buying of @Huawei and offering #HKers "lifeboats"
🇦🇺: US-Japan #SouthChinaSea military exercise took place in Australia. #CCP intimidated journalists in Beijing

5.2/
🇪🇺: Stop exporting sensitive tech and treat HK the same way as #China
🇩🇪: Wang Yi intimidated Czech Senate speaker @Vystrcil_Milos for visiting Taiwan. @HeikoMaas criticized with an open letter.
🇫🇷: Forced telcos to ditch @Huawei and announced of won't treat China naively

6.1/
🇨🇦: Showed no sign of thawing with China. Hostage diplomacy continues to deadlock.
🇯🇵: partnered closely with the #5Eyes and acted tougher after @chowtingagnes was arrested
🇮🇳: border clashes continued and ditched Chinese mobile apps like @WeChatApp @Alipay @tiktok_us

6.2/
🇹🇼: international reputation continued to rise after having the least #COVID19 confirmed cases in the world with its anti-pandemic policy
🇭🇰: US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, France and
Germany ended extradition agreements

7/ #HongKongers have achieved remarkable results fighting against the second-largest, evilest country in the world in just one year. The idea of phoenixism is that we know the chance of winning is low, so we try to increase the costs beard by the #CCP to achieve what we demand.

8/ Everyday we are guided by our thirst for freedom and a sense of duty to bring democracy to our children and grandchildren. So long as we follow that path, we will always be on the right side of history. The island of HK may be small the resolve of its people is anything but.