Thread by @ejmalrai

Who is behind the resignation of #Lebanon PM Mustafa Diab? The answer is @saadhariri who badly wants to return to power but #SaudiArabia veto on him is preventing his return. Therefore, he "burns" all candidates he himself chooses until @EmmanuelMacron convinces the Saudi.

This is the first failure of #France's initiative and an indication to #Paris that it has little - not none - leverage in #Lebanon.

As I wrote in my previous articles, the #US did not give the green light to France to take over but within a specific framework: disarm #Hezbollah

Coz #France understands that #Hezbollah can't be disarmed (#Israel supported by the #US and #SaudiArabia tried by failed to achieve this objective), @EmmanuelMacron divided the problem by concentrating on forming a government first and left #Hezbollah's weapons to another stage.

But the Lebanese are not embracing Macron's initiative. Only @General_Aoun and his brother-in-law @Gebran_Bassil walked along with the French initiative while the pro-Saudi camp, i.e. @DRSAMIRGEAGEA and to a certain point @saadhariri are linked to foreign dictate.

Now the objective is to hold on for 40 more days until the #US elections: if @realDonaldTrump is re-elected, the possibility of a war in #Lebanon is high but not to the US-Saudi-Israel advantage. If not, this possibility (of war) has a bit fewer chances to succeed.

Mustafa Adib had little chances of success coz he had no political experience, totally manipulated by @saadhariri & a postman with no agenda but to visit @General_Aoun when he is told to do so to entertain the media. Hariri believes it is a game he is playing with not his country

Many are trying to blame #Hezbollah & its ally Speaker Nabih Berri for insisting on the finance ministry & for the duo to appoint the minister. What has happened:
the duo along with their allies have the right to choose the PM and all the ministers in a democratic country+

Coz #Lebanon say there is democracy but in fact, there isn't, distribution among various religions prevail over democracy.The 14th of March group led by @SaadHariri wanted to divert the blame of corruption from the father, Rafic, who dominated the country along his son for 15 yrs

The PM @SaadHariri took the opportunity, he who has only 20 MPs out of 128, to dictate his conditions over the majority MPs. Hariri hid behind the fact that the #US and #SaudiArabia (#Israel demand) are against #Hezbollah's (34 MPs along with Berri) participation to the gov.

Hariri wants to nominate all ministers, bypassing the Christians & Shia who hold together 65 MPs: an impossible demand.
The second objective is to make sure the Christian president and reformist @General_Aoun fails in his ruling and that his legacy is remembered a catastrophe.

The Christian-Shia alliance was a blessing because it has significantly reduced the Christian immigration from #Lebanon. The presence of the Christian in the Levant is essential, not only because it is the land of their ancestors but because they have a lot to offer to the ME.

#Lebanon Prsdt @General_Aoun understood the necessity for the minority (Christian/Shia) to stick together also coz they have common cause & objectives in the country. The extremist Sunni radicals (#ISIS & #AQ) supported by #SaudiArabia & the west aimed to eliminate the minorities

#US spent over $1billion in #Syria & #SaudiArabia several billion to eliminate not only Presdt Assad but also the root of Christianity in the Levant (Syria and #Lebanon). #Hezbollah society has no place to go but to stay in #Lebanon. Christians don't want to become refugees.

Christian/Shia refuse to offer #Lebanon to Palestinian & Syrian refugees. These r Sunni & would change the demography in the country. Besides, Both #Hezbollah and @General_Aoun insisted on the right of return of refugees to their country: that goes against #US #Israel objectives

This is the main reason why #Lebanon doesn't join the "Peace process", the "deal of the century" and the last fashionable "normalisation" with #Israel. For that, there is a price to pay: President Aoun should fail.
Unfortunately, Christian leader @DRSAMIRGEAGEA is an opportunist+

Supported by #SaudiArabia & #US, Geagea can't see the Christian of #Lebanon r reduced from several million to 100s of thousands in the country. Hundreds of Christians are lining up in front of embassies or online offering themselves as refugees: the ideal objective of the west

The west is ready to give visas and residence permit to any Christian leaving #Lebanon or #Syria. Due to decades of corruptions and mismanagement. the number of Lebanese willing to leave for a better life is increasing. Lebanese may become the next Palestinians or Syrians.

When you take the roots away of a population, this becomes very vulnerable and weak. Notwithstanding the west's plan to deprive #Lebanon of the Christian and to corner the Shia, the west has failed in the last 14 years in its objectives. There is no reason why it shouldn't today

The west has failed in #Iraq, #Syria and #Yemen to exert its favourite hobby: divide and nobody rules. Yemenite, Syria, Iraqis and Lebanese are holding on to their roots & territories. I don't see why the western warmongers would win this time.

It is all a matter of patience.

Forgive me for the long thread.

Have a nice weekend to all.

Just learned from the Lebanese Presidency:
The designed and resigned PM Mustafa Adib did not present any name of any minister throughout his non-consultation period, including today.
@General_Aoun asked him today before Adib forwards his resignation: Do you have a list?
Adib: No

This is a clear indication the designed-resigned PM Mustafa Adib was a marionette in the hands of @saadhariri who had no intention to allow Adib to rule.

How a PM wants to form a government without offering any name to the President as per the constitution of #Lebanon?

How a designed PM wants to enjoy the approval of the parliament if not consulting with the head of the parliament groups about any name he could possibly suggest as a candidate to this or that minister?

It was a comedy and @EmmanuelMacron should have better advisors next time.