1/ Startup failure phenotype

I grew up in an environment where failure was not looked upon favorably.

It was something that was just not done in the family.

If you studied hard you passed. If you didn't you failed.

Conversely if you failed, it implied a personal shortcoming.
2/ The first time I failed my actuarial exams, I was traumatized.

I couldn't parse the result. I had studied hard, how did I fail? Then I failed the same exam again. And again.

It didn't compute. I was 19 years old.

Something must be wrong with me.
3/ I didn't work for myself for the first few years of my professional life because I thought failure was not an option.

Once again, it wasn't something that was done. Socially and culturally speaking, it was equivalent to hanging out with the unsavory crowd, the "bad boys"
4/ Failure literally translated into - if you had studied hard at school, you would have a nice cushy soul sucking job and you won't need to work for yourself.

Only the reactionary crowd, the back benches, the drop outs, kids who bunked school, end up working for themselves.
5/ By the time my first startup failed, I had failed 24 actuarial exams across 11 years.

I was a hard boiled egg. That conditioning came in handy but it wasn't enough.

It took 6 years and writing a book to get all that damage out of my system.

To get rid of that dark cloud.
6/ The lesson I learnt through that experience was that all failures are not created equally.

Some are quite palatable. They add a different flavor to your life. Even bragging rights.

Others are the kiss of death. To be avoided like unwelcome visitors late a night.
7/ I classified failures under three types.

Type 1 - Is like a wild night out on town.

You do it every one in a while but it leaves no damaging legacy.

It is like going to the beach, tapping your toes in the water and saying not today. Maybe next time.
8/ A Type 1 may cost you a few months of your life and a small portion of your net worth.

In most instances, it is a small experiment that you shut down before going critical.

A few months to recover and a great deal of bragging rights.

"I was a founder once..."
9/ Type II is a bit more deadly. Not fatal but certainly more painful.

You bet 2 or more years of your life and everything you had on the idea.

You launch the product and it falls flat. Or you fall flat before the product gets a chance to do the same.
10/ Type II is, you go to the beach, tap your toes, like the feeling and go for a swim.

You brush against a reef, get stung by a jelly fish, get caught in the riptide, almost drown but due to divine intervention, make it back to the shore.

Almost in one piece but damaged.
11/ It takes years to recover from a Type II failure.

If you are young, you can make up the financial loss. But the emotional damage stays for a while.

If you are old, it take a bit to recover mentally but the money is gone.

One piece but damaged.
12/ Type III is the one to watch out for.

You go to the beach, you tap your toes, you like the feel, you go for a swim...

And you are never seen again. The kiss of death.
13/ Type III survivors are rare.

You don't just risk your net worth, you take down your entire family with you. Mortgage your house, borrow money from everyone you know, put everything on line.

Type III generally hits you late in the cycle. You make a bet that goes very wrong.
14/ A Type III survivor has to dig out of a hole that took 6 to 8 years to dig. Mentally it is even tougher to come back.

It is generally bets on expansion or scale or the market turning against you when you least expected it.

Your only hope for recovery. Family and Friends.
15/ Here is the interesting bit.

The more Type I's and Type II's you have had, the lower the chance you will hit a Type III. Even if you do, you are more likely to survive and recover compared to others.

Just like a vaccine or immunization program.
16/ So when seasoned founders say, fail fast, fail quickly, fail often, this is what they mean.

Build up your immunity. Not just so you could cut your losses and move on but also see the Type III train coming and get off the track.

Break it down. Rebuild it up again.
17/ I am a Type III survivor.

Lucky and blessed. My family and friends held my hand and brought me back into the light.

Damaged but in one piece, paying down debts.

I wrote a book on failure years ago. It is yours for free. Not even an email address.
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More from @rebootdude

10 Oct
1/ I had 3 dreams as I grew up.

a) Run the NYC Marathon
b) Write a book
c) Produce a play on Broadway

For a kid who used the G-3 bus to get to Regal chowk for high school and W-18 to get to campus on Bhains colony, these were all moon shots.
2/ I knew they weren't real and it would take more than an alignment of planets to get me to a stage where these would become more than wishful thinking.

But I continued to dream and added more to the list.

Might as well be a traveler of the world, in business class, no less.
3/ The NYC marathon was an evolved version of an earlier dream.

One that involved running track for the national team.

Once I figured that I was too old for that to happen, I accepted a simpler version. I would be happy running a marathon. NYC would do just fine.
Read 21 tweets
9 Oct
1/ To my students and friends in the industry.

This is not the first time we have been blind sided. This is not going to be the last time.

This is also not the end. Yes it hurts. Yes you have a right to feel miserable and depressed.

But remember, you are stronger than this.
2/ Stability and continuity of policy has been a national weakness since our very beginning. We are not new to this.

Handling this is programmed into our DNA. We always figure a way out. Takes time but we crack the code or get through to saner voices on the other side.
3/ In the mean time focus on your work, on what you can and do control. Don't waste your breath or time wallowing in self pity or darkness beyond tonight.

Yes it is a lousy hand, but you can't change the cards. Move on.

There is always work to be done. Get it done.
Read 7 tweets
8 Oct
1/ Pricing Models for startups and founders

Lecture notes from pricing for founders sessions this morning at @TheNestiO

How should we think about pricing our products and services as a startups or founder?

Simpler and cleaner is better than busy and cluttered
2/ There are three pricing schools

a) Cost plus - factor in all costs. Charge a multiple

b) Value - estimate perceived value for a customer. Charge a fraction

c) Paying capacity - charge whatever you can or get away with
3/ In competitive markets without a unique, differentiated product, cost plus is the likely option.

To charge premium or move into value, need traction, credibility, customer testimonials and history.

For most startups, executing on value pricing right at start is difficult.
Read 12 tweets
7 Oct
1/ Building financial models.

I often start my financial modeling lectures with the following lines from Alice in Wonderland.

The models we build depend on the questions we need to answer.

If you don't know the question, the model as well as our answer won't have any purpose. Image
2/ A model for raising funding is inherently different from one for planning and managing cash flows.

Models used for pricing and market share are different from ones we use for planning resources and head count.

We often use these parts together but the intent differs.
3/ If you know the question you need to answer, start with the simplest variation possible.

I call it the 5 x 5. A model no larger than one that can fit between 5 row and 5 columns in Excel.

Short and sweet. Simplicity forces you to think hard about choices.
Read 15 tweets
2 Oct
1/ Shortfall analysis

In #risk a powerful concept named #shortfall analysis works very well as for building financial models for #founders and #startups.

It's a bit of a mind bender the first time you read it but has interesting applications once you understand it.
2/ Imagine an important business metric.

Let's say customers order. Link that to an equally important performance measure. Profit & Loss (PnL).

The two are clearly linked.

How would you stress test or sensitivity test them? For an internal planning meeting? For a money pitch?
3/ There are 3 models you can pick for a stress test.

a) What could be our worst case loss if PnL turns negative?

b) What is the probability of a negative PnL?

c) How much do customers orders need to drop for us to hit the red zone?
Read 8 tweets
2 Oct
1/ All my life I have worked in cycles. Intense effort in one specialization followed by a repeat in another.

Working out different part of the brain every few months or years.

A few years with CS, followed by a few years as an actuary. Two years as an author than a film maker
2/ As I have gotten better the cycles have gotten shorter and more intense. Now it's a few month of regulatory reporting work, 15 days as a writer, a month of intense road running, a week as a trsiner and then repeat.
3/ The variety and context switching makes it possible for me to keep the output above the mean.

And it ensures that I don't have the time to think about boredom.

The problem is when burnout hits it's equally intense.

The last time was 2015.
Read 8 tweets

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