1/6. The USA, Oct. 10 to 16 - Will be plateauing at high epidemic activity for #COVID19, with high mortality rates for 7 more days.
5 states below detailed in the thread.
Data coronavirus.jhu.edu renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/6. New York is experiencing a recent surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at medium levels, foreseen to reach high levels by mid-October, with increasing but still low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. A situation similar as those seen currently in Western Europe.
3/6. Texas will be plateauing at high level of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
4/6. Florida will be plateauing at medium to high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high mortality rates, for 7 more days.
5/6. California will be plateauing at medium levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with decreasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
6/6. Arizona will be plateauing at medium levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with decreasing low levels of mortality.
7/6
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Mortality assessment:
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50

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More from @FLAHAULT

11 Oct
1/5 -
Tentons de mettre sur la table toutes les mesures qui fonctionnent pour éviter un nouveau confinement :
1. Testing/Tracing/Quarantaine-Isolement rétrospectif prioritaire pour prévenir clusters et super-propagation (=approche japonaise)...
2/5-
... Et si capacités restantes le permettent, en +, Test/Trac/Isol prospectif classique (=recherche des contacts des cas);
2. Promotion très active du télétravail à chaque fois que possible;
3. En tous lieux clos:port du masque+distance physique+ventilation+mesures d'hygiène
3/5 -
4. Dans les zones à risque (>4,3 cas #COVID19/100Kpop/jour):
a) Fermeture des cours présentiels aux collèges, lycées et universités, et remplacement par enseignement à distance;
b) Fermeture des bars, restaurants, discothèques; promotion des terrasses.
...
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
1/21. Oct 12 to Oct 18 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Austria is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for Austria, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy. ImageImage
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 23 tweets
11 Oct
1/9 - “[Urugay]’s response [to #COVID19] could offer various lessons to [Latin America] and the world, among them how to test more efficiently using a system first pioneered to tackle syphilis during the second world war.” bmj.com/content/370/bm…
2/9 - “Uruguay’s president, Luis Lacalle Pou acted promptly when Uruguay’s first case was confirmed on 13 March. [He] announced that all public events and potential centres of crowding such as bars, churches, and shopping centres would be shut down. Schools were also closed.”
3/9 - “Lacalle Pou asked rather than ordered people to stay at home to protect the population, the oldest in Latin America.”
Read 9 tweets
11 Oct
1/13 - “To fight a super-spreading disease effectively, policy makers need to figure out why super-spreading happens, and they need to understand how it affects everything, including our contact-tracing methods and our testing regimes.” Via @Pierre_mHealth theatlantic.com/health/archive…
2/13- “We see that super-spreading clusters of #COVID19 almost overwhelmingly occur in poorly ventilated, indoor environments where many people congregate over time-weddings,churches,choirs, gyms,funerals,restaurants, and such-when there is loud talking or singing without masks.”
3/13 - “Prolonged contact, poor ventilation, a highly infectious person, and crowding [are] the key elements for a super-spreader event.”
Read 13 tweets
10 Oct
1/21. Oct 11 to Oct 17 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Switzerland is experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: Due to discontinuity in reporting its surveillance data to international networks, 7-day predictions are not reliable for the country. ImageImage
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 23 tweets
10 Oct
1/9 - On peut comprendre que bon nombre n’ait pas saisi les subtilités du débat sur l’hydroxychloroquine au début de la pandémie et il me semble utile de s’y pencher un peu car il en va de la culture scientifique de la population et peut-être de l’enseignement général sur ce plan
2/9 - D. Raoult, scientifique renommé, entrevoit très tôt le potentiel d’une molécule très connue (HCQ) qui montre une efficacité en laboratoire. Il propose de la prescrire en clinique et estime les résultats suffisamment parlants pour en promouvoir l’usage sans délai...
3/9 - ...Le recours à une molécule ancienne était une excellente idée (la même que celle de Pasteur Lille aujourd’hui, ou de l’ivermectine en essai), car elle permet de court-circuiter les essais précliniques (chez l’animal) et les essais cliniques de phase I/II (chez l’homme)...
Read 9 tweets

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