Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Oct 12 to Oct 18 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

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2/21. Austria is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for Austria, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy.

3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

4/21. France is experiencing high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for France, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy.

5/21. Germany is facing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with remaining very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/21. The Netherlands show no sign of controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, which will continue to increase at very high levels, with increasing low to medium level of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.

7/21. The UK shows no sign of controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, which will continue to increase at high levels for the 7 upcoming days, with increasing low to medium levels of mortality.

8/21. Portugal is experiencing rise in the range of medium levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for Portugal, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy.

9/21. Tunisia is experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 case incidence at medum levels of activity, with increasing high levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting may not be accurate tonight for Tunisia.

10/21. South Africa has successfully controlled its #COVID19 winter wave, and is foreseen to remain in its safety zone, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

11/21. Israel will be plateauing at very high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

12/21. Russia is experiencing a second wave in its #COVID19 epidemic activity foreseen to leave medium level to reach high levels of its case incidence from mid-October, with increasing medium levels of mortality.

13/21. Japan is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

14/21. India is forseen to be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with low reported rates of mortality, for 7 more days.

15/21. Canada will experience rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with increasing but still low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Note: Today Canada omitted to report to ECDC, we therefore used data reported to JHU for its 7-day forecasting.

16/21. The USA is foreseen to be plateauing in its #COVID19 case incidence at high level of activity, with high levels of mortality too, for 7 more days.
More details and risk map on:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1314844315496189954?s=20

(with detailed analyses for 5 states)

17/21. Mexico will continue to be plateauing at high level for its #COVID19 mortality,

Note: erratic and unreliable reporting of cases, makes impossible analyses and 7-day forecasting.

18/21. Colombia seems experiencing again a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, with high levels of mortality, as foreseen for 7 more days.

19/21. Peru seems now controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, slowly landing towards its saftety zone, with remaining high levels of mortality.

20/21. Argentina does not succeed to control its #COVID19 epidemic activity, and will be still ascending at very high levels with remaining alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Australia and New Zealand have both successfully controlled their winter #COVID19 second epidemic waves. They will remain within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.

22/21
CH and ESP did not report to ECDC during the week-end, and are replaced by Austria and Portugal up to the next Friday.

23/21
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Mortality assessment:
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50