1/9 - On peut comprendre que bon nombre n’ait pas saisi les subtilités du débat sur l’hydroxychloroquine au début de la pandémie et il me semble utile de s’y pencher un peu car il en va de la culture scientifique de la population et peut-être de l’enseignement général sur ce plan
2/9 - D. Raoult, scientifique renommé, entrevoit très tôt le potentiel d’une molécule très connue (HCQ) qui montre une efficacité en laboratoire. Il propose de la prescrire en clinique et estime les résultats suffisamment parlants pour en promouvoir l’usage sans délai...
3/9 - ...Le recours à une molécule ancienne était une excellente idée (la même que celle de Pasteur Lille aujourd’hui, ou de l’ivermectine en essai), car elle permet de court-circuiter les essais précliniques (chez l’animal) et les essais cliniques de phase I/II (chez l’homme)...
4/9 - ...Mais en rien, cela ne pouvait dispenser de conduire un (ou mieux plusieurs) essai(s) clinique(s) de phase III, l’essai thérapeutique randomisé, le modèle de recherche clinique qui apporte le meilleur niveau de preuve scientifique de l’efficacité d’un médicament...
5/9 - ...Les médecins ont apporté à la science un petit joyau, une pépite épistémologique, avec leur étalon or que représente l’essai clinique randomisé. Pas un médicament aujourd’hui n’entre sur le marché européen sans avoir prouvé son efficacité par trois essais randomisés...
6/9 - ...Esther Duflo, française fille de médecin, a reçu le prix Nobel d’économie, pour avoir démontré par un essai randomisé, l’intérêt de distribuer gratuitement et non de vendre des moustiquaires aux villageois africains pauvres, pour combattre efficacement le paludisme...
7/9 - ...De nombreuses sciences n’ont pas su tirer les bénéfices de cet apport de la recherche clinique médicale. Les pires dans le domaine sont les “sciences” du management qui continuent à “croire” à des “gourous” du management et imposent des “innovations” sans preuves...
8/9 - ... mais les sciences de l’éducation, la science politique, le droit et plus généralement toutes les sciences humaines et sociales aux approches beaucoup plus qualitatives n’ont pas encore vu l’essai randomisé percoler dans leurs propres champs disciplinaires...
9/9 - ...Il n’est pas étonnant dès lors que le public, les journalistes, les politiques n’aient pas immédiatement saisi l’immense forfaiture à nous faire croire sans essai clinique randomisé que l’HCQ était efficace. Et en plus, le coup est parti d’un médecin, chercheur, réputé.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Antoine FLAHAULT

Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @FLAHAULT

11 Oct
1/5 -
Tentons de mettre sur la table toutes les mesures qui fonctionnent pour éviter un nouveau confinement :
1. Testing/Tracing/Quarantaine-Isolement rétrospectif prioritaire pour prévenir clusters et super-propagation (=approche japonaise)...
2/5-
... Et si capacités restantes le permettent, en +, Test/Trac/Isol prospectif classique (=recherche des contacts des cas);
2. Promotion très active du télétravail à chaque fois que possible;
3. En tous lieux clos:port du masque+distance physique+ventilation+mesures d'hygiène
3/5 -
4. Dans les zones à risque (>4,3 cas #COVID19/100Kpop/jour):
a) Fermeture des cours présentiels aux collèges, lycées et universités, et remplacement par enseignement à distance;
b) Fermeture des bars, restaurants, discothèques; promotion des terrasses.
...
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
1/21. Oct 12 to Oct 18 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Austria is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for Austria, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy. ImageImage
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 23 tweets
11 Oct
1/9 - “[Urugay]’s response [to #COVID19] could offer various lessons to [Latin America] and the world, among them how to test more efficiently using a system first pioneered to tackle syphilis during the second world war.” bmj.com/content/370/bm…
2/9 - “Uruguay’s president, Luis Lacalle Pou acted promptly when Uruguay’s first case was confirmed on 13 March. [He] announced that all public events and potential centres of crowding such as bars, churches, and shopping centres would be shut down. Schools were also closed.”
3/9 - “Lacalle Pou asked rather than ordered people to stay at home to protect the population, the oldest in Latin America.”
Read 9 tweets
11 Oct
1/13 - “To fight a super-spreading disease effectively, policy makers need to figure out why super-spreading happens, and they need to understand how it affects everything, including our contact-tracing methods and our testing regimes.” Via @Pierre_mHealth theatlantic.com/health/archive…
2/13- “We see that super-spreading clusters of #COVID19 almost overwhelmingly occur in poorly ventilated, indoor environments where many people congregate over time-weddings,churches,choirs, gyms,funerals,restaurants, and such-when there is loud talking or singing without masks.”
3/13 - “Prolonged contact, poor ventilation, a highly infectious person, and crowding [are] the key elements for a super-spreader event.”
Read 13 tweets
10 Oct
1/21. Oct 11 to Oct 17 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Switzerland is experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: Due to discontinuity in reporting its surveillance data to international networks, 7-day predictions are not reliable for the country. ImageImage
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 23 tweets
10 Oct
1/6. The USA, Oct. 10 to 16 - Will be plateauing at high epidemic activity for #COVID19, with high mortality rates for 7 more days.
5 states below detailed in the thread.
Data coronavirus.jhu.edu renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/6. New York is experiencing a recent surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at medium levels, foreseen to reach high levels by mid-October, with increasing but still low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. A situation similar as those seen currently in Western Europe.
3/6. Texas will be plateauing at high level of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!