1/9 - “[Urugay]’s response [to #COVID19] could offer various lessons to [Latin America] and the world, among them how to test more efficiently using a system first pioneered to tackle syphilis during the second world war.” bmj.com/content/370/bm…
2/9 - “Uruguay’s president, Luis Lacalle Pou acted promptly when Uruguay’s first case was confirmed on 13 March. [He] announced that all public events and potential centres of crowding such as bars, churches, and shopping centres would be shut down. Schools were also closed.”
3/9 - “Lacalle Pou asked rather than ordered people to stay at home to protect the population, the oldest in Latin America.”
4/9 - “All decisions passed through a cross-disciplinary committee of scientists who refocused their research to #covid19. The alignment of decision makers, scientists, and national health authorities was perfect and clearly with great timing.”
5/9 - “Where Uruguay succeeded and other nations did not was testing. It has tested 233.7 people for every confirmed case of covid-19,5 compared with 1.7 in Argentina, 1.9 in Mexico, and 3 in Colombia.”
6/9 - “By pool testing, [they] screened populations like teachers, which mean [they] could open schools without mandatory quarantine. The same approach has been used with care homes,medical staff,and football teams to facilitate a return to normality more quickly at lesser cost.”
7/9 - “[Pool testing] is useful once the prevalence of the virus is low—in Uruguay’s case below 1%. It is not useful when the virus is prevalent as it would mean retesting too many individuals, negating the efficiency of pool testing.”
8/9 - “Epidemiologists traced the first outbreak to a wedding, where all attendees were tested and suspected infections isolated within 24 hours. The same approach was employed at the three subsequent outbreaks: a mental health care hospital, a care home for the elderly,...”
9/9 - “...and the city of Rivera, bordering Brazil. The result was that most local transmission chains have been controlled at the second or third ration of contacts, before their spread accelerated.”

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More from @FLAHAULT

12 Oct
1/8 - Il y a deux modalités de traçage des contacts:
a) Traçage prospectif, classique, on recherche les contacts du cas;
b) Traçage rétrospectif,”à la japonaise”,on recherche qui a contaminé le cas.
La priorité des priorités c’est de privilégier b) et ne faire a) que si on peut.
2/8 - Le fondement théorique vient du paramètre k de dispersion, élevé pour la grippe (de dynamique homogène) et faible pour le #SARSCoV2 dont la dynamique est hétérogène, émerge en clusters et en événements super-propagateurs: 10 à 20% des contaminations drive toute la pandémie.
3/8 - Si 80-90% des cas contaminent 0 ou 1 cas, on n’a pas à se fatiguer à tracer leurs contacts. Ils ne nous inquiètent pas. En revanche, il faut tout mettre en œuvre pour stopper la propagation causée par les 10 ou 20% restants, à commencer par les identifier. Comment faire ?
Read 8 tweets
12 Oct
1/21. Oct 13 to Oct 19 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Austria is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for Austria, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy. ImageImage
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity foreseen to reach high level after mid-October, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 23 tweets
11 Oct
1/5 -
Tentons de mettre sur la table toutes les mesures qui fonctionnent pour éviter un nouveau confinement :
1. Testing/Tracing/Quarantaine-Isolement rétrospectif prioritaire pour prévenir clusters et super-propagation (=approche japonaise)...
2/5-
... Et si capacités restantes le permettent, en +, Test/Trac/Isol prospectif classique (=recherche des contacts des cas);
2. Promotion très active du télétravail à chaque fois que possible;
3. En tous lieux clos:port du masque+distance physique+ventilation+mesures d'hygiène
3/5 -
4. Dans les zones à risque (>4,3 cas #COVID19/100Kpop/jour):
a) Fermeture des cours présentiels aux collèges, lycées et universités, et remplacement par enseignement à distance;
b) Fermeture des bars, restaurants, discothèques; promotion des terrasses.
...
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
1/21. Oct 12 to Oct 18 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Austria is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for Austria, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy. ImageImage
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 23 tweets
11 Oct
1/13 - “To fight a super-spreading disease effectively, policy makers need to figure out why super-spreading happens, and they need to understand how it affects everything, including our contact-tracing methods and our testing regimes.” Via @Pierre_mHealth theatlantic.com/health/archive…
2/13- “We see that super-spreading clusters of #COVID19 almost overwhelmingly occur in poorly ventilated, indoor environments where many people congregate over time-weddings,churches,choirs, gyms,funerals,restaurants, and such-when there is loud talking or singing without masks.”
3/13 - “Prolonged contact, poor ventilation, a highly infectious person, and crowding [are] the key elements for a super-spreader event.”
Read 13 tweets
10 Oct
1/21. Oct 11 to Oct 17 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/21. Switzerland is experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: Due to discontinuity in reporting its surveillance data to international networks, 7-day predictions are not reliable for the country.
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Read 23 tweets

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