Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Oct 11 to Oct 17 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21. Switzerland is experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: Due to discontinuity in reporting its surveillance data to international networks, 7-day predictions are not reliable for the country.

3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

4/21. France is experiencing high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate tonight for France.

5/21. Germany will be facing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with remaining very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/21. The Netherlands show no sign of controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, which will continue to increase at high levels, with low level of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.

7/21. The UK show no sign of controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, which will continue to increase at high levels for the 7 upcoming days, with increasing medium levels of mortality.

8/21. Spain remains at high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high to very levels of mortality.

Note: Due to discontinuity in reporting its surveillance data to international networks, 7-day predictions are not reliable for the country.

9/21. Morocco is experiencing medium levels of #COVID19 case incidence activity, with medium levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting may not be accurate tonight for Morocco.

10/21. South Africa has successfully controlled its #COVID19 winter wave, and is foreseen to remain in its safety zone, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

11/21. Israel will be plateauing at very high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

12/21. Russia is experiencing a second wave in its #COVID19 epidemic activity foreseen to leave medium level to reach high levels of its case incidence from mid-October, with increasing medium levels of mortality.

13/21. Nepal is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with reported very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

14/21. India is forseen to be plateauing at medium levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low reported rates of mortality, for 7 more days.

15/21. Canada will experience rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with increasing from low to medium levels of mortality, by mid-October.

16/21. The USA is foreseen to be slowly ascending in its #COVID19 case incidence at high level of activity, with high levels of mortality too, for 7 more days.
More details and risk map on:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1314844315496189954?s=20

(with detailed analyses for 5 states)

17/21. Mexico will continue to be plateauing at high level for its #COVID19 mortality,

Note: erratic and unreliable reporting of cases, makes impossible analyses and 7-day forecasting.

18/21. Colombia seems experiencing again a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, with high levels of mortality, as foreseen for 7 more days.

19/21. Peru seems now controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, hopefully landing towards its saftety zone, with remaining high levels of mortality.

20/21. Argentina does not succeed to control its #COVID19 epidemic activity, and will be still ascending at very high levels with remaining alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Australia and New Zealand have both successfully controlled their winter #COVID19 second epidemic waves. They will remain within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.

22/21
CH did report continuously to ECDC during the past week, but data from Johns Hopkins University database were usable for this thread.
CH, ESP, and MEX which did not report regularly during the past week exhibit times series which are not prone to reliable predictions.

23/21
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Mortality assessment:
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50