1/5 -
Tentons de mettre sur la table toutes les mesures qui fonctionnent pour éviter un nouveau confinement :
1. Testing/Tracing/Quarantaine-Isolement rétrospectif prioritaire pour prévenir clusters et super-propagation (=approche japonaise)...
2/5-
... Et si capacités restantes le permettent, en +, Test/Trac/Isol prospectif classique (=recherche des contacts des cas);
2. Promotion très active du télétravail à chaque fois que possible;
3. En tous lieux clos:port du masque+distance physique+ventilation+mesures d'hygiène
3/5 -
4. Dans les zones à risque (>4,3 cas #COVID19/100Kpop/jour):
a) Fermeture des cours présentiels aux collèges, lycées et universités, et remplacement par enseignement à distance;
b) Fermeture des bars, restaurants, discothèques; promotion des terrasses.
...
4/5 -...
c) Renforcement strict de la protection des personnes âgées et à risque; encadrement strict des visites en EPHAD/EMS;
d) Interdiction de tous rassemblement extérieur publics et privés >50 pers, intérieur >10 pers
e) Recommandation d'éviter les réunions amis/familles
5/5 -
5. Abrogation des décrets de port de masque en milieu extérieur mais recommandation dist. phys.;
6. Ecoles prim., crèches et commerces non essentiels peuvent rester ouverts si: masque, distance physique, ventilation efficace, nb pers réduits en lieux clos, tests salivaires.
6/5 - Autres mesures ?

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More from @FLAHAULT

12 Oct
1/8 - Il y a deux modalités de traçage des contacts:
a) Traçage prospectif, classique, on recherche les contacts du cas;
b) Traçage rétrospectif,”à la japonaise”,on recherche qui a contaminé le cas.
La priorité des priorités c’est de privilégier b) et ne faire a) que si on peut.
2/8 - Le fondement théorique vient du paramètre k de dispersion, élevé pour la grippe (de dynamique homogène) et faible pour le #SARSCoV2 dont la dynamique est hétérogène, émerge en clusters et en événements super-propagateurs: 10 à 20% des contaminations drive toute la pandémie.
3/8 - Si 80-90% des cas contaminent 0 ou 1 cas, on n’a pas à se fatiguer à tracer leurs contacts. Ils ne nous inquiètent pas. En revanche, il faut tout mettre en œuvre pour stopper la propagation causée par les 10 ou 20% restants, à commencer par les identifier. Comment faire ?
Read 8 tweets
12 Oct
1/21. Oct 13 to Oct 19 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Austria is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for Austria, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy. ImageImage
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity foreseen to reach high level after mid-October, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 23 tweets
11 Oct
1/21. Oct 12 to Oct 18 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/21. Austria is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for Austria, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy.
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Read 23 tweets
11 Oct
1/9 - “[Urugay]’s response [to #COVID19] could offer various lessons to [Latin America] and the world, among them how to test more efficiently using a system first pioneered to tackle syphilis during the second world war.” bmj.com/content/370/bm…
2/9 - “Uruguay’s president, Luis Lacalle Pou acted promptly when Uruguay’s first case was confirmed on 13 March. [He] announced that all public events and potential centres of crowding such as bars, churches, and shopping centres would be shut down. Schools were also closed.”
3/9 - “Lacalle Pou asked rather than ordered people to stay at home to protect the population, the oldest in Latin America.”
Read 9 tweets
11 Oct
1/13 - “To fight a super-spreading disease effectively, policy makers need to figure out why super-spreading happens, and they need to understand how it affects everything, including our contact-tracing methods and our testing regimes.” Via @Pierre_mHealth theatlantic.com/health/archive…
2/13- “We see that super-spreading clusters of #COVID19 almost overwhelmingly occur in poorly ventilated, indoor environments where many people congregate over time-weddings,churches,choirs, gyms,funerals,restaurants, and such-when there is loud talking or singing without masks.”
3/13 - “Prolonged contact, poor ventilation, a highly infectious person, and crowding [are] the key elements for a super-spreader event.”
Read 13 tweets
10 Oct
1/21. Oct 11 to Oct 17 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/21. Switzerland is experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: Due to discontinuity in reporting its surveillance data to international networks, 7-day predictions are not reliable for the country.
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Read 23 tweets

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