1/21. Oct 13 to Oct 19 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/21. Austria is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for Austria, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy.
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity foreseen to reach high level after mid-October, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
4/21. France is experiencing high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for France, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy.
5/21. Poland is facing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
6/21. The Netherlands show no sign of controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, which will continue to increase at very high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.
7/21. The UK shows no sign of controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, which will continue to increase at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.
8/21. Portugal is experiencing rise of its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with medium levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for Portugal, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy.
9/21. Morocco is experiencing a medium level #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting may not be accurate for Morocco due to discontinuous reporting.
10/21. South Africa has successfully controlled its #COVID19 winter wave, and is foreseen to remain in its safety zone, with medium to high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
11/21. Israel will be plateauing at very high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
12/21. Russia shows no sign of controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, which will continue to increase from medium to high levels after mid-October, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.
13/21. Japan is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
14/21. India is forseen to be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with low reported rates of mortality, for 7 more days.
15/21. Canada will experience rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at medium levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Note: Today again Canada omitted to report to ECDC, we therefore used data reported to JHU for its 7-day forecasting.
16/21. The USA is foreseen to be plateauing in its #COVID19 case incidence at high level of activity, with high levels of mortality too, for 7 more days.
More details and risk map on:

(with detailed analyses for 5 states)
17/21. Uruguay is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
18/21. Colombia is experiencing again a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, with high levels of mortality, as foreseen for 7 more days.
19/21. Peru is controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, slowly landing towards its saftety zone, with remaining high levels of mortality.
20/21. Argentina does not succeed to control its #COVID19 epidemic activity, and will be still ascending at very high levels with remaining alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
21/21. Australia and New Zealand have both successfully controlled their winter #COVID19 second epidemic waves. They will remain within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.
22/21
Switzerland and Spain which did not report to ECDC during the week-end, are replaced by Austria and Portugal up to the next Friday.
Germany which did not report in due time today to ECDC, is replaced by Poland
23/21
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Mortality assessment:
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50

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More from @FLAHAULT

12 Oct
1/8 - Il y a deux modalités de traçage des contacts:
a) Traçage prospectif, classique, on recherche les contacts du cas;
b) Traçage rétrospectif,”à la japonaise”,on recherche qui a contaminé le cas.
La priorité des priorités c’est de privilégier b) et ne faire a) que si on peut.
2/8 - Le fondement théorique vient du paramètre k de dispersion, élevé pour la grippe (de dynamique homogène) et faible pour le #SARSCoV2 dont la dynamique est hétérogène, émerge en clusters et en événements super-propagateurs: 10 à 20% des contaminations drive toute la pandémie.
3/8 - Si 80-90% des cas contaminent 0 ou 1 cas, on n’a pas à se fatiguer à tracer leurs contacts. Ils ne nous inquiètent pas. En revanche, il faut tout mettre en œuvre pour stopper la propagation causée par les 10 ou 20% restants, à commencer par les identifier. Comment faire ?
Read 8 tweets
11 Oct
1/5 -
Tentons de mettre sur la table toutes les mesures qui fonctionnent pour éviter un nouveau confinement :
1. Testing/Tracing/Quarantaine-Isolement rétrospectif prioritaire pour prévenir clusters et super-propagation (=approche japonaise)...
2/5-
... Et si capacités restantes le permettent, en +, Test/Trac/Isol prospectif classique (=recherche des contacts des cas);
2. Promotion très active du télétravail à chaque fois que possible;
3. En tous lieux clos:port du masque+distance physique+ventilation+mesures d'hygiène
3/5 -
4. Dans les zones à risque (>4,3 cas #COVID19/100Kpop/jour):
a) Fermeture des cours présentiels aux collèges, lycées et universités, et remplacement par enseignement à distance;
b) Fermeture des bars, restaurants, discothèques; promotion des terrasses.
...
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
1/21. Oct 12 to Oct 18 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/21. Austria is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: our 7-day forecasting does not sound accurate for Austria, we are working on our models to improve their predictive accuracy.
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Read 23 tweets
11 Oct
1/9 - “[Urugay]’s response [to #COVID19] could offer various lessons to [Latin America] and the world, among them how to test more efficiently using a system first pioneered to tackle syphilis during the second world war.” bmj.com/content/370/bm…
2/9 - “Uruguay’s president, Luis Lacalle Pou acted promptly when Uruguay’s first case was confirmed on 13 March. [He] announced that all public events and potential centres of crowding such as bars, churches, and shopping centres would be shut down. Schools were also closed.”
3/9 - “Lacalle Pou asked rather than ordered people to stay at home to protect the population, the oldest in Latin America.”
Read 9 tweets
11 Oct
1/13 - “To fight a super-spreading disease effectively, policy makers need to figure out why super-spreading happens, and they need to understand how it affects everything, including our contact-tracing methods and our testing regimes.” Via @Pierre_mHealth theatlantic.com/health/archive…
2/13- “We see that super-spreading clusters of #COVID19 almost overwhelmingly occur in poorly ventilated, indoor environments where many people congregate over time-weddings,churches,choirs, gyms,funerals,restaurants, and such-when there is loud talking or singing without masks.”
3/13 - “Prolonged contact, poor ventilation, a highly infectious person, and crowding [are] the key elements for a super-spreader event.”
Read 13 tweets
10 Oct
1/21. Oct 11 to Oct 17 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting in 209 countries for cases, deaths, tests, R-eff, risk maps (21 of them analyzed below).
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/21. Switzerland is experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 case incidence, with increasing -although low- levels of mortality.

Note: Due to discontinuity in reporting its surveillance data to international networks, 7-day predictions are not reliable for the country.
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Read 23 tweets

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