17 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Some Damned Data You Can Believe In!

Wanna know what keeps me up at night? Bad data does. It pisses me off. It gives me nightmares. No kidding. You get the idea that I hate bad data, right? So soothe your eyes with me here.
2) Now that is true data. Feast your eyes upon it. Take it in. You want truth? I do! This is truth. It's the real deal. It actually happened and there ain't nobody trying to mess with this image. No propaganda. No Psyop. Just raw, honest, real truth. Go slowly with me.
3) Note the time frame. We see 4 10-year points on our X axis across the bottom: 1986, 1996, 2006, 2016. We can guess we go back to an unmarked 1980, and forward to the present, so 40 years of real, honest data.
4) Knowing my new passion for using these new fangled techno tools, well, learning hot to, you won't be surprised I figured out at least how to draw my own lines with my mouse. Check this out!
5) The long blue line starts right around 2000. Hey, let me go check, maybe I can get the date exactly...

Yep! 20 August, 1999 is when Clinton's Bull Market peaked and you see the steady line until June of 2001, dropping into the Sep 11 collapse, again rising, etc.
6) If I knew how to mark it up a bit more, I'd label the long blue line like so: Bush/Obama Resistance Line.

This is a fine line. It has three wonderful, multi-year tests. It's an honest line. Had Clinton2 won, she might have sustained that line. Maybe. Seriously, maybe.
7) But of course, in this hypothetical, that's not my call. Aha. I have to go draw up a new chart to show you.

The long blue line is a support line this time. It might be called the Bush1/Clinton/Bush3/Obama AND HYPOTHICAL Clinton2 support line.
8) The red line is my guessed projection (retrojection) as to what would have happened in a Clinton2 administration.

On this scale it may not look quite as deadly as it would actually have been. Right now, we're at 28,000 DJIA give or take. The red line takes us to about 12,000.
9) You won't believe me, but I consider the red line to be very generous. Here's why. China. China paid for the wealth of the Clintons, Gores, Obamas, and Bidens. Under their sway, 70,000 factories were shut down in America. Imagine another 10,000 or more gone by now.
10) That's what keeps me up at night. I am imagining a Biden administration, and the plunging depths of the worst recession, no, depression in our history. Gut the military. Export the jobs. Bow to Beijing. Marxism destroys America's economy completely. That's a nightmare.
11) I have a couple of more charts for you. This one may be called the Trump Economy. Take a comforting, long, slow look.
12) This is ONLY a 5-year chart. The charts we analyzed above were 40-year charts, or 8 times longer. And yet, consider how lovely and clean this chart is, compared to the daily histrionics we always hear in the news. Enjoy the calmness. You deserve it.
13) It gets even better. I draw a lot of lines. When I draw each line, for a moment or two, it is my most recent favorite. I've been watching this line over the past 4 years. It is no mere recent favorite. This is just gorgeous. Don't you agree?
14) The long, slow line is support, the Trump Economy Support Line. The 2019 test was around the time of the impeachment. The stock market did not like the idea of Trump being impeached. For all that, there are 5 tests of this line. That's a strong line.
16) Do you remember what Obama said when asked if he's a socialist? he said, "I'm no socialist. If you want to meet some, I can introduce you." As you saw, I give a long, steady support line to Clinton/Bush/Obama. They were all capitalists.
17) Clinton2 is also a capitalist, and that's why I only retrojected her impact down to the decades' long support line, and not lower. Biden is a capitalist too, not a socialist. Ah, but he is so beholden to his socialist support he can't escape it.
18) From a fundamental perspective, I just don't see how Biden can win. As I've been saying ever since the one debate, Trump has exploited the split between the Democratic left and its middle. And never the twain shall meet. No chance.
19) So that's why I made my call on 15 October. It was, sadly, merely a fundamental and NOT a technical call. I repeat, I do NOT have the data to back my call. I hate that more than I can express. Oh wait, I already said that...
20) So let's go deeper, to the real heart of the matter. The question: who WILL win?, is, and by far, the most important of the pragmatic or predictive questions. But it's NOT the most interesting. The most interesting question is: who SHOULD win?
21) I am more than just a capitalist. I am both an anti-socialist and even massively more an anti-communist. Isn't there a trending hashtag on topic:


We need another:

22) Stick with me. Slowly. Socialism takes from those with more to give to those with less. It punishes getting more. It rewards getting less. The great credo of communism is: Form those who can to those who need.

How can you draw a line between the two? I say you can't.
23) There's a practical line that draws both socialism and communism even closer. Corruption. Those at the top, say a Stalin or a Hugo Chavez or a Castro or a Xi, always live in mansions. They're always driven by chauffeurs. They enjoy every luxury at the expense of the people.
24) We know that Joe Biden is more than corrupt. We know he's one of the wealthiest men in the State of Delaware. He lives in a great mansion, and sports millions of dollars as his net worth. How did that happen? It's simple. Corruption.
25) We know that Al Gore become vastly wealthy on the basis of his value to the People's Republic of China. Clinton's VP. Biden did the same thing, easy as pie. Who knew? The most lucrative job in politics is VP...as long as you're corrupt.
26) Well, Obama may give the lie to that assertion. Consider his countless millions. Who knows how many came from China? We certainly know that among the billions he sent to Iran, some several millions came back to Obama. And hey, the word for that is treason.
27) Biden is a different thing. Why? Bernie Sanders. No one in American history has done more to make socialism acceptable. He's deemed honest by his followers. They throw off all his obvious corruption. He's not poor, either, is he?
28) I always find it interesting how the richest men in America call for transformation of the system in order to help the poorest among us. Corruption is a type of pure evil, and has no shame in showing its own true face.
29) How long ago did Clinton2 stop being a practicing lawyer? How rich are the two of them? How many mansions do they jet between? They sit comfortably amongst the world's wealthiest 1%ers. And they preach to the rest of us 99%ers and down.
30) Who SHOULD win. Obviously, you know my answer. Trump. And we should strengthen his Senate and give him back the House. That is what SHOULD happen.

Will it?

I can only hope.
Thread ends at #30.

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More from @ThyConsigliori

17 Oct
17 October 2020 #AtThyConsiglioriBizAnalysis

Logistics. Who Doesn't Love Logistics? UPS - 1 of 10.

I have an amazing friend. He's the greatest logistician in the world. His name is David Schneider. Check him out!

2) David has given me 10 logistics companies to analyze. UPS is the first and here we go. My standard method will be this. We take the long term max numbers, then the 5 year numbers, then this year. First the raw chart. Second my own lines.
3) I don't know if I'll always have to do this. But the time frame for each chart matters. Greatly. Our first chart, no lines drawn, shows about 20 years worth of UPS stock data. Obviously, it's a good stock!
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16 Oct
16 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

If Only I Could Believe The Data...

I'm a data addict. I can't help myself. It calms my disturbed and troubled mind. And, if it's only rational, then I'm happy. No, not by the results forecasted, just merely be the rationality.
2) The first point to be made, and repeated, is that every bit of this data falls within the margin of error area. By this ONE chart, the election has been a statistical dead heat from day one. I respect that. Every other chart Dornsife offers has Biden a 100% winner. Locked.
3) I add happily that I have never believed these numbers. I have only allowed them closest to the truth status, out of all the other blather Dornsife posts. My real belief is that Trump has been ahead of Biden this entire time. I am, however, humble enough to consider this data.
Read 31 tweets
15 Oct
15 October 2020 #MAGAanalysis

Head, Heart, Soul, and Might

I was watching FOX when one of its Democratic commentators said something like this. 'As long as Americans are talking about COVID and Healthcare, it's good for us, bad for Trump, and will show up in the coming vote.'
2) He was referring to Amy Coney Barrett's hearings, and praising the Democratic senators for their tactic on those two points. I truly couldn't believe how wrong he was. What's more, I never see anyone take such commentators to task when they make these idiotic comments.
3) Yes, they always have a Republican commentator who vehemently disagrees, making the counterpoint case. But disagreeing with a point is in NO WAY the same thing as taking someone to account for their illogic, itself. It's as if points are all that's in play, not the pointmaker.
Read 53 tweets
14 Oct
14 October 2020 #BetweenTheLilnesDotVote Analysis

I'm A Data Sucker, And Well, When My Lines Work...

You just can't blame me. Wait till you see the next chart! No one could fail to share when their lines were as prophetic as mine sometimes are. You have to forgive me, okay?
2) I do NOT forgive Dornsife for their hellacious machinations, completely admitted at their website. But I just can't get over the feeling that this one question is defeating their evil purposes. I'll explain once again, below. Here's the first chart I drew this morning.
3) There is a science that underlies polling data. It is simply a prediction of victory. Who thinks who will win? I have named it the Flynn Doctrine- and General Flynn has completely agreed - who the people think will win, will win.
Read 31 tweets
12 Oct
12 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Where Are We...Really?

If I'm a Biden advisor, I'm scared out of my head about the numbers we'll look at today. Yes, they say were ahead, but are the numbers true, and are we really ahead? Not too sure, you know? We'll dive in.
2) Let's take a closer look, at our now familiar chart explosion, with simple support and resistance lines. Check this out. Here we are, nicely headed back up toward our comfortable resistance line, Trump heading back down. So what could be wrong?
3) What's wrong is this. We have NOT killed him, yet. Trump is such a dangerous enemy that, until you knock him out, a pure KO, he's very able to come back and pull victory from the jaws of defeat. He is precisely that dangerous. There's no knock out so far. That's not good.
Read 31 tweets
11 Oct
11 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

A Single True Thing We Know

Humility. We must all admit, we don't know where the election stands right now. I do have formations I will share, today. But the very meaning of these formations is...we do not know where we stand.
2) We've discussed the Iceberg Theory that NO POLL is adequately tracking Trump support. I don't know if I buy that for a single reason. I want to buy it. I want to believe in a looming massive landslide for Trump, in spite of just about every poll out there.
3) Funny thing, the coming charts, which at first glance call for a looming Biden victory, are not nearly so simple as first glance may indicate. Let's go ahead and look at first glance right now.
Read 16 tweets

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