Thread by @pmdfoster

As 'no deal' risk rises, why is business not getting more ready for new #Brexit borders? Well, its #COVID19, plus rubbish govt comms, plus assumption that some 11th hour fix will happen - again. My latest with @DanielThomasLDN

ft.com/content/746f08…

@DanielThomasLDN First #Covid_19 As @BCCAdam tells us, business is just too busy fighting the "five alarm fire" of coronavirus to have the time, money and general bandwidth to start damping down for a fire that isn't yet actually lapping at the door /2

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam Or as Craig Beaumont, of the Federation for Small Businesses @fsb_policy puts it even more bluntly many businesses are focusing on “surviving to Christmas” rather than what happens on January 1. /3

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy And this is evident, says Ben Fletcher, @BenFletcherNo1 of @MakeUKCampaigns in the significant drop in businesses stockpiling compared to last year. “Their bandwidth has been occupied by Covid. They have used up what cash they had set aside,” he said./4

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns Now the absolute pants government comms on this - has anyone actually watched the Check Change Go advert? It's basically a Hovis-ad for #Brexit - sappy nonsense about bright new dawn and zero detail. Inane, but worth to remind yourself how bad /5

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns As @BCCAdam says the old “It presents it like it’s a routine MOT test but for a lot of businesses Brexit is more like co-ordinating a moon landing,” he said.

There is a new "Time is Running Out" campaign which isn't that much better...but no link yet available. /6

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns Now about the co-ordinates for that 'moon-landing'?

Well, that's the other complaint - just a chronic lack of detail about everything from VAT to the new GVMS customs pre-declaration software, that is just switching business off - even though it shouldn't, lots CAN be done/7

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns But the truth is we're all human - businesses too - and that's where Whitehall and Government just stumbles.

They can't seem to grasp that edicts and grant schemes aren't enough - turning round businesses is as hard as turning round Whitehall. In the real world takes time/8

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns So as Rod McKenzie @RHARodMcKenzie of Road Haulage Assoc explains, 85% UK hauliers are smaller operators with no space to look ahead. “This often means that more strategic planning work gets neglected because of daily pressures." True of must of us, right? /9

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns @RHARodMcKenzie Oh....quick digression...here's the new spoooooky 'Time is running out ad' sirens and all...bit less of the Hovis humbug, bit more urgency /10

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns @RHARodMcKenzie But where was I? Oh yes...the real world, with real people in it - where companies live hand to mouth on the Amex and the overdraft and the dog really does eat your homework...which probably explains why one third still think there will be some new transition period./11

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns @RHARodMcKenzie That seems V. unlikely, but as @SamuelMarcLowe observes, if there IS a deal, there might well be phase-in periods and mitigations that mean it isn't un-sensible to "wait and see" what happens - which if you've read the Border Operating Model is understandable reaction! /12

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns @RHARodMcKenzie @SamuelMarcLowe Or more like you'll be like Neil Clifton, managing director at Cube Precision Engineering, who's been busy with Covid-related changes. “We are not naive enough to say that is going to be the same but no one knows the shape and size of the deal and what it means,” he said. /13

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns @RHARodMcKenzie @SamuelMarcLowe All of which is to explain why ordinary businesses fighting for their lives right now don't take too kindly to being accused of having their 'head in the sand' by the likes of Lord Theodore Agnew - they've got their heads in a battle to survive /14

ft.com/content/08ce06…

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns @RHARodMcKenzie @SamuelMarcLowe It also point to the open secret, which is that really it's too late now to be 'fully prepared' for whatever #Brexit is coming - Canadian or Australian - there just isn't enough time, or enough customs intermediaries/expertise to get this all to go off smoothly /15

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns @RHARodMcKenzie @SamuelMarcLowe A lot of businesses are just going to let it happen, and then roll with it.

It's hard to say how messy that will be - the UK govt will do its best to accommodate/keep show on road. In a deal world, the EU will help a bit too, probably. Less in a 'no deal'. /16

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns @RHARodMcKenzie @SamuelMarcLowe But as someone said to me this week, even if everything worked perfectly, if you look at what goes through the Kent corridor (10,000 trucks a day through Dover) and just add a few minutes of friction per truck, it gets sticky pretty quickly. /17

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns @RHARodMcKenzie @SamuelMarcLowe How sticky depends on easements - and other human factors like, for example, how much trade just stops, or takes on another form.

As I keep saying, its fascinating how little confidence industry has in predicting how it goes down. /18

@DanielThomasLDN @BCCAdam @fsb_policy @BenFletcherNo1 @MakeUKCampaigns @RHARodMcKenzie @SamuelMarcLowe I don't know, but I'll be there, notebook at the ready to let you know!

ENDS