The world holds its breath as voters go to the polls in a deeply divided country. Political violence seems more likely than not due to pronounced ethnic divisions and irresponsible leadership. #ElectionDay #Election2020 #thread 1/5 google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theg…
Despite growing fears of electoral manipulation and conflict, international observers have been denied access to some parts of the country, exacerbating fears that the president will refuse to leave office if he loses power. 2/5 #USAElections2020 google.co.uk/amp/s/theconve…
Much will depend on the electoral system, which is disorganised and controversial - & is likely to lead to contradictory claims about who has won early on Election Day, further radicalIsing & polarising a fractious and distrustful society. 3/5 #ElectionDay google.co.uk/amp/s/globalne…
The potential for conflict is exacerbated by the failure of previous disarmament programmes & the militarised nature of society. Religious leaders are appealing for calm following episodes of unrest in this increasingly fragile state. #USAElections2020 4/5 google.co.uk/amp/s/www.broo…
Experts from countries with more experience in building effective electoral institutions have been offering advice, but fear little can be done at such short notice due to the damaging impact of neo-patrimonial leadership & weak institutions. ENDS. 5/5 theresistancebureau.com
Glad people are enjoying this thread! For those keen to read more, I just published this a few minutes ago on @ForeignPolicy, looking at how the elections could turn violent and the importance of the way the results are announced foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/03/don…

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More from @Fromagehomme

3 Nov
On Kenya BBI & the gender quota. Am I missing something or does it fail to *guarantee* that no more than two-thirds of Parliament will be of the same gender? I have read the proposals & it is not clear to me that it does 1/5 @MitullahWinnie @karutikk @gathara @Nanjala1 #BBIReport
BBI mandates parties to have 30% women on their candidate lists. But this doesn’t ensure they win - if they contest against other male candidates many may lose. Only 27 women in the current parliament did not come through the reserved county seats. 2/5 @kopalo #BBIReport
That means that securing the threshold will likely depend on the 70 seats to be appointed by the parties on the basis of their vote share. But reports suggest only 35 of these have to go to women. That’s a *loss* of 12 compared to the 47 county women’s representatives. #bbi 3/5
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10 Jun
To all those saying that slavery happened a long time ago, that it didn't benefit them directly, and that they not racists so why should they care - THIS is why you should care. #thread #slavery #blacklivesmatter #ukprotests #bristolstatue #RhodesMustFall 1/4
You may think that you don't personally benefit from slavery, but you almost certainly do. Many of you may be surprised to find your ancestors + people with your name in this database - like Thomas J. Cheeseman a British slave over. Check it out here: 2/4 ucl.ac.uk/lbs/project/de…
Even if you don't find your own name in the database, you live in a county whose infrastructure and economy benefitted massively from slavery and other immoral acts, and those benefits created advantages - in education, business, healthcare - enjoyed by subsequent generations 3/4
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The impact of #COVID19 on democracy, a #thread. There is a lot of discussion of this but some is a bit simplistic. We need to distinguish different mechanisms through which this works. I can see at least three. (Anyway wants me this up just DM me) 1 #COVID2019 #protectdemocracy
The most obvious mechanism is that authoritarian leaders use #COVID19 to ban rallies and protests, and in some cases cancel elections, eg by declaring states of emergency. We might call this the covid *sleight of hand*, which is used by authoritarian regimes in trouble 2
A less obvious mechanism is that authoritarian leaders simply do more oh what they have always been doing in the knowledge that no one is paying attention. In other words for these leaders #COVID2019 represents a good period to bury bad news. These are *corona opportunists* 3
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