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Silvia Merler Profile picture
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3 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
It's #ElectionDay in an unprecedented election in an unprecedented year. I think this chart offers the clearest and most synthetic picture of where the perfect political storm scenario could come from: it's all in the timeline mismatch. ⬇️ 1/
Biden's lead is stronger in swing states (notably Pennsylvania and Michigan) that are unlikely to be called tonight because they do little pre-processing of postal ballots. Swing states Trump could win (Florida and NC above all) have long pre-processing and will be called. 2/
Add to this that the in person vote has become a completely partisan issue in this election, because of COVID. So it could very well look like the in person vote is leaning red in 'Biden states' such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, tonight. Voters self-selection at work. 3/
If that happens, and at the same time Trump keeps Florida and North Carolina, he might declare victory. The mail ballots would overturn it, but the incumbent has been quite vocal as to the intention to challenge their legitimacy before SCOTUS. Uncertainty would clearly ensue. 4/
So, long story short: Florida and North Carolina are the states to watch tonight. If Biden wins them, it's a solid step towards game over. If not, then differences in pre-processing practices across swing states creates an opening for a perfect political storm scenario. end/

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More from @SMerler

Silvia Merler Profile picture
9 Sep
🔎As the 🇬🇧 government is set to introduce its widely debated Internal Market Bill, Britannia seems to have moved from 'ruling the waves' to 'waiving the rules'. Why and what lays ahead? (Alert: long thread)1/
As we wrote in this ⬇️piece last year, the NI Protocol negotiated by Johnson achieved the remarkable combination of leaving the Prime Minister in a better political position at home, while putting the country in a worse economic position vis-à-vis 🇪🇺2/ algebris.com/policy-researc…
The NI protocol negotiated by Theresa May foresaw a temporary arrangement (the backstop) where the need to avoid trade-related checks at the Irish border was met by setting up a single EU-UK custom territory. For this to be possible ... 3/
Read 19 tweets
Silvia Merler Profile picture
5 Sep
Il problema di #BrainDrain italiano in 2 grafici (ht @Tagliapietra_S). I ricercatori 🇮🇹 sono i secondi più premiati con grants ERC, ma meno del 40% dei vincitori è di stanza in università 🇮🇹. Di questi temi abbiamo scritto con @APRForum e @Tortugaecon qui media.algebris.com/algebris_polic…
🇮🇹 storicamente ha una bassa % di popolazione con istruzione terziaria, e in particolare sotto-produce capitale umano nelle aree che guideranno crescita e sviluppo in futuro (e.g. STEMs ICT). Ciononostante spendiamo solo ~0.3% PIL su istruzione terziaria
Inoltre, in Italia fare l'università "non paga": dati OCSE mostrano che il tasso di rendimento interno dell'investimento in istruzione terziaria in 🇮🇹 è molto basso. Per questo indicatore siamo penultimo nell'OCSE (appena davanti alla Turchia)...
Read 8 tweets
Silvia Merler Profile picture
26 Aug
📊 There has been a lot of talk about #COVID19 summer 2nd waves in Europe. But I think the country we should look at as a leading indicator of transitioning into winter is Australia 🇦🇺. Two words on why (usual caveat applies: I am not a virologist nor an epidemiologist) 1/
What we are seeing in European summer 2nd waves is a big increase in cases with (for now) stable deaths numbers. This is unlike what we had in March/April and there are a lot of factors contributing to it that have been explained by experts (age profile, better knowledge etc). 2/
The 2nd wave in 🇦🇺 however has come with a significant increase in daily new deaths, which are currently 4x where they were at peak 1st wave (see 📊 above). Differently from Europe, 🇦🇺 had its 1st wave in summer and is having its 2nd wave in winter (being southern hemisphere) 3/
Read 5 tweets
Silvia Merler Profile picture
21 Jul
🔎After reading the 68 pages of Council conclusions, here are m 2 cents on the #EUCO #NextGenerationEU deal 1/
The total amount of funds available under #NextGenerationEU remains 750bn as in the original EC proposal, but the composition changes: grants fall from 500bn to 390bn while loans increase from 250bn to EUR 360bn. But the composition of cuts matter 2/
⬇️Here is a comparison of program allocations as per the original proposal and the current deal. While the grants in the Recovery Fund (RRF) has been preserved, the cut in grants has concentrated on programmes that would have financed truly European public goods. 3/
Read 15 tweets
Silvia Merler Profile picture
29 May
🔎Due parole in italiano su #NextGenerationEU, su cui mi pare di vedere nel dibattito italiano ancora più frustrante confusione che sul tema del MES (se possibile). Non mi guadagnerà simpatia, ma certe cose vanno dette. 1/
#NextGenerationEU è un pacchetto composto da vari strumenti che trovate elencati qui. Il riassunto è che si tratta di 750 miliardi (di cui 500 miliardi di grants) che la Commission finanzierà con l'emissione comune di titoli Europei sul mercato ⬇️ ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Si tratta di una iniziativa storica per 2 motivi. Primo, benché non si tratti della prima volta che l'UE emette titoli, le dimensioni non sono neppure paragonabili: nel periodo 2010-19 l'UE ha emesso in tutto 69mld, con #NextGenerationEU l'emissione sarà più di 10 volte tanto.
Read 14 tweets
Silvia Merler Profile picture
19 May
2 parole anche in italiano sulla proposta 🇩🇪🇫🇷 per il EU recovery fund, su cui mi pare di vedere nel dibattito italiano una certa confusione 1/
1) Molti lamentano la dimensione (500mld vs 1000mld prospettati da Von der Leyen), ma non guardano alla composizione. I 1000mld di Von der Leyen erano pensati a leva come misto di loans e grants, in cui la grande incognita era la misura della componente grants.
2) Qui abbiamo un accordo trasparente su 500mld tutti in trasferimenti dal bilancio UE (quindi per capirci come i fondi strutturali, di fatto grants), che non contano come debito nazionale e che sono finanziati con emissione comune grazie a un aumento delle risorse proprio UE.
Read 10 tweets

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