Day 1 of #Lockdown2.
This is not as stringent a lockdown as before - children are still at school (which has benefits for the children), and people are less apprehensive than the first lockdown.
This is not as stringent a lockdown as before - children are still at school (which has benefits for the children), and people are less apprehensive than the first lockdown.
The lockdown was announced in advance, and we have seen people go to shops yesterday in great numbers to ensure they have the products they want.
And yesterday was seen by some as the last chance for a gathering.
Both these things will have increased transmission.
And yesterday was seen by some as the last chance for a gathering.
Both these things will have increased transmission.
Due to the less stringent measures this time around, it will mean that it will take longer for the incidence of the virus to reduce. (We could have timed measures around the half term holiday, which would have meant that the measures were more effective).
The delay in the system - the time for people to be infected, to be hospitalised, and in some cases to sadly die, means that we will not see the effects of #lockdown2 immediately.
In fact, it may be a few weeks time - around the time when the measures expire - that we see the full effects in terms of deaths.
We should take note of three things:
1. Hospitalizations and deaths will not come down immediately as a result of these restrictions
2. This is a less stringent lockdown, so will take longer
3. Even if R reduces to below 1 on 2 December, we will still have a high incidence
1. Hospitalizations and deaths will not come down immediately as a result of these restrictions
2. This is a less stringent lockdown, so will take longer
3. Even if R reduces to below 1 on 2 December, we will still have a high incidence
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