Joe Biden (JB) OVERHEARD DISCUSSING THE UK with his new Secretary of State (SOS)

JB: I know about the Ireland idiocy, I've told them what they risk with GFA. I'm more concerned they hurt us and EU?

SOS we agree, they're undermining the whole treaty by shifting blame to allies
SOS: It's stubborn ideology they're way beyond a Brexit definition. UK stopped all cross border cooperation, not just political or legal under the ECJ, I mean everything

From intelligence sharing to tourism. Even cancer treatment!

Without exaggeration sir, the Koreas do better
JB, so we've effectively lost our main ally in Europe?

SOS it's beyond that sir, they're an active detractor.

Europeans don't even want to be in the same room with them, so mendacious and manipulative have they become.

JB What about #Covid19. Surely they're working together?
SOS (sighs).
When the EU warned about the risk of
Care home deaths in Jan,
and
airport contagion in Feb
they disbanded the links with both agencies and sunk the reports. You know what happened next
(JB nods, sadly)

SOS: rejected all PPE & other purchasing cooperation then lied
JB: But why. The UK was even less prepared than Trump, they need friends?

SOS: We don't know. It's so pig headed and they say our politics is polarised!

It's not external. Best guess they're infiltrated. A sort of crypto fascist elite has taken over their Conservative party.
SOS continues:

Either way, we can no longer rely on them to be a rational player.

In Europe they're rogue. Just on Government purchasing corruption, nepotism & rule of lawbreaking.

JB. So do we call off Nuke cooperation?

SOS: They've become untrustworthy. Do we have a choice?
[Spoiler

Just to make sure I do not in any way mislead, this thread is fictional, and was lampooning our Government. Satire. Any similarity with reality is entirely accidental...

...and completely predictable.]
Postscript 1
This was a fictional scenario, but if you think it's exaggerated you'd be wrong.

Outside unreportable private conversations which were made up, the facts mentioned are real.

And then this

• • •

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More from @atatimelikethis

8 Nov
Loking at recent events in UK and US leads me to conclude
"who will you vote for" is,

at least for the all important swing voter

no longer a predictor of
who they will vote for

Anyone struggling with counter intuitive outcomes see #Brexit is reducing UK sovereignty.
Note.

Expect very soon to see 1000s of "The Polls Got It Wrong" threads.

This is NOT one of those threads. It's more "NRA" than that.

Polls don't get it wrong, politicians who use polls get it wrong.
For those open to counterintuition, this is a trend.

In 2007 Black Swan author, Nassim Taleb argued the death of models because we humans are (simplified) bad at spotting unlikely things.

The turgid book should have failed, but in landing with 2008's crash proved its point Image
Read 9 tweets
1 Nov
With Captain Hindsight we now know Vallance and Whitty we're right in September.

Could we have been Captain Foresight?

In this thread, I forensically take apart a "Great Barrington" proponent.

You need no foresight, just objectivity and integrity.

Journalism do you know that?
As a past AZT viral researcher, I know broad ideas drive innovation

But I expect us all to follow the Scientific Method.

What is IMHO dangerous is politicising science, while failing to confront theories lacking evidence.

That's a view
I will attempt to prove it objectively.
⛔🚮1
Here I analyse theories proposed by Great Barrington proponent; Sunetra Gupta.

In science, we judge theory by its ability to predict results.

Gupta's theories are questionable because they predict poorly.

Responsible Journalists look at the average balance of theory.
Read 28 tweets
25 Oct
So we're beginning to see the arguments being placed to justify an extension to the #Brexit transition.

"Anonymous Sources" just leaked that #Johnson will delay a "No Deal" decision until after the US Presidential election.

So how will this play out now? Some predictions⏬
Why is #Johnson in desperate need to delay #Brexit? The strategic reasons are here [], the TLDR is we're completely and utterly fooked due to the worst possible approach to negotiation.

And Public Finances slight problem #Brexit has 2x cost of #Covid19 🤒
Neither of the negotiation outcomes is acceptable for the Brexiteers. Neither is possible without a Northern Ireland solution.

I cover some of the problems for businesses of both in this Open Letter []

My question here is what happens next.
Read 13 tweets
23 Oct
Victory from Defeat?
An Idea.

I've warned about difficulties Brexiters will face with their current stance if Trump fails to win the election.

Their difficulties can be reslved, but only by rational strategic thinkers.

Do we have any of those in Government?

I'll explain⏬
A few things that you need to accept to run with this thread.

1. No Deal is the worst negotiation option we had. It reveals our walk away and shows we have no leverage. Plus it give up trade deals not only with the EU but all the deals with the rest of the world through the EU.
2. Brexiters claimed it was the only option.
Folly.
The obvious alternative was a beauty contest where we ruled nothing in or out on trade terms, exclusive or shared, waiting on the best bid.

Played well we could even have been a useful ally to US and EU in cross Atlantic Trade.
Read 20 tweets
21 Oct
I feel like history needs to be applied to the comparisons between UK/USA 2020 and Germany 1930s.

The analogy has some legitimacy. The process and likely outcome need some work.

And we have some things to learn from people with more experience - Germans

Thread ⏬
The Jews were never a threat to the Nazis.

They were disliked, even hated by many bigots who found them objectionable, disloyal, money-grabbing. Not German enough

Nazis built on that to encourage hate

In Trump's America and the UK the direct analogues are Immigrants & Muslims
Hitler's screaming Brownshirts were PR.
Tiny in number

Hitler was supported by "normal" middle class people worried about societal change and economy

They were told by a captive press that Jews were the cause of decline.

A complete lie, believed.
And a direct analogy for us.
Read 31 tweets
20 Oct
You may have missed this fifth anniversary. On October 8th, 2015, Vote Leave launched.

I thought I'd take a quick look at its 5-year achievements.
1. Strategy & Plan
Those leading Vote Leave have, in political terms, had an enormous amount of time to figure out a plan that would secure a promising future for the UK outside the EU.

Objectively what will historians conclude?

Was there a plan?
Was it realistic?
It's hard to find any evidence to answer yes to either of those questions.

Compared to the EFTA/ETA model offered in 2016 #Brexit is in its 10-13th iteration (depending on how you count)

With 2.5 months to go, the two architects have no better idea for a settlement than 2016.
Read 15 tweets

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