Loking at recent events in UK and US leads me to conclude
"who will you vote for" is,
at least for the all important swing voter
no longer a predictor of
who they will vote for
Anyone struggling with counter intuitive outcomes see #Brexit is reducing UK sovereignty.
"who will you vote for" is,
at least for the all important swing voter
no longer a predictor of
who they will vote for
Anyone struggling with counter intuitive outcomes see #Brexit is reducing UK sovereignty.
Note.
Expect very soon to see 1000s of "The Polls Got It Wrong" threads.
This is NOT one of those threads. It's more "NRA" than that.
Polls don't get it wrong, politicians who use polls get it wrong.
Expect very soon to see 1000s of "The Polls Got It Wrong" threads.
This is NOT one of those threads. It's more "NRA" than that.
Polls don't get it wrong, politicians who use polls get it wrong.
For those open to counterintuition, this is a trend.
In 2007 Black Swan author, Nassim Taleb argued the death of models because we humans are (simplified) bad at spotting unlikely things.
The turgid book should have failed, but in landing with 2008's crash proved its point
In 2007 Black Swan author, Nassim Taleb argued the death of models because we humans are (simplified) bad at spotting unlikely things.
The turgid book should have failed, but in landing with 2008's crash proved its point
As did Brexit, a niche policy wonk issue prior to 2015.
But it attached itself to real 2008 anger against elites, multinationals, bank bailouts and Euro fear*
Since all but Euros love Brexit, be very scared if you're still a believer.
* sceptical? See Cummings Blog data
But it attached itself to real 2008 anger against elites, multinationals, bank bailouts and Euro fear*
Since all but Euros love Brexit, be very scared if you're still a believer.
* sceptical? See Cummings Blog data
It lives proudly on in #Labour, a party still fighting over whether Corbyn, and by extension Socialism is the future or the past.
Interesting pub chat, but only once you've resolved why you gifted Johnson 60 seats due to split vote policy not ideology.
Interesting pub chat, but only once you've resolved why you gifted Johnson 60 seats due to split vote policy not ideology.
https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1205429124111781888?s=19
#Tories have also embraced this lunacy. No party is more adept at predicting highly unpredictable short term economics...
...while failing to predict highly predictable viral growth data.
How does the economy deal with a crashed NHS and dead in the streets?
Don't know/care
...while failing to predict highly predictable viral growth data.
How does the economy deal with a crashed NHS and dead in the streets?
Don't know/care
And of course, #Brexit wins twice, not only did it steal a real trend to impose a solution that will worsen the trend, run by the people who created the trend...
Economically it only ever cared about a <1% cost, never an 8x revenue decline
Counterintuiton, you gotta laugh 💥🙃
Economically it only ever cared about a <1% cost, never an 8x revenue decline
Counterintuiton, you gotta laugh 💥🙃
What's the moral of the story?
At some level, I may have rerun
Lies
Damned lies
Statistics and
Brexit
But there may be a more helpful general rule:
Next time a politician uses a stat
It's certainly not just that
They don't understand the issue
And probably will make it worse
At some level, I may have rerun
Lies
Damned lies
Statistics and
Brexit
But there may be a more helpful general rule:
Next time a politician uses a stat
It's certainly not just that
They don't understand the issue
And probably will make it worse
Otherwise, get a Cabinet
negotiating the most complex trade deal in history
delivering above all else an improvement in Sovereignty
while fighting a Pandemic
WHICH HAS
No one who ever completed a trade deal
Experts in Sovereignty breaking
Fired all the pandemic experts
negotiating the most complex trade deal in history
delivering above all else an improvement in Sovereignty
while fighting a Pandemic
WHICH HAS
No one who ever completed a trade deal
Experts in Sovereignty breaking
Fired all the pandemic experts
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