Thread by @atatimelikethis

So we're beginning to see the arguments being placed to justify an extension to the #Brexit transition.

"Anonymous Sources" just leaked that #Johnson will delay a "No Deal" decision until after the US Presidential election.

So how will this play out now? Some predictions⏬

Why is #Johnson in desperate need to delay #Brexit? The strategic reasons are here [

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1319720628014993409?s=19

], the TLDR is we're completely and utterly fooked due to the worst possible approach to negotiation.

And Public Finances slight problem #Brexit has 2x cost of #Covid19 🤒

Neither of the negotiation outcomes is acceptable for the Brexiteers. Neither is possible without a Northern Ireland solution.

I cover some of the problems for businesses of both in this Open Letter [

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1318266918298701824?s=19

]

My question here is what happens next.

The insoluble problems for Johnson, a consequence of horribly managed negotiations, range from cancer medicine to Europe travel delays, but let's focus on Northern Ireland since everything depends on that

1. What change does he need?
2. How can he get a delay?
3. How to sell it?

1. Question: WHAT CHANGE DOES HE NEED?

Answer: A solution that doesn't break the Good Friday Agreement.

This problem, which didn't exist until Jan 2017 red lines (i.e. Brexiters created after Brexit), has never had and can never (without magic tech) have a solution

The magic border tech solution was first promised to be in place mid 2019, then March 2020. Best estimate today is 2022.

On the assumption a further 2 year transition won't be possible, there is only one route out.

Whatever he calls it, we need to be in the EU Customs Union

2. Question HOW WILL HE GET A DELAY

Answer. He'll say that whoever wins, this has changed calculations. If Biden it changes US Trade Terms.
(If Trump that a Democrat Senator or Representatives changes trade terms.).

Both of these are nonsense for the following reasons

a) Strategically no single US President or congress arrangement should affect an already 5-year process.
b) if Brexit requires a particular US political dynamic it never should have been suggested
c) the timing of the election was known so why would it change things now?

But logic isn't needed. He needs reasoning for #Brexiteers, they just need something plausible for 5 minutes. And a preferable red blooded angry win of Biden is an ideal excuse to blame the American electorate for a further Brexit delay however unlikely for any of the rest of us.

3. QUESTION: HOW TO SELL IT
Answer: Return to the Economic Market (EEC).

Scenarios Johnson could use for Customs Union solutions are in the first thread.

All of them have significant problems rolling back promises on Customs Union.

But EEC gives the most plausible deniability.

TLDR What is EEC Solution?

An EFTA/ETA fudge that allows the UK to sign its deals (provided they are in line with EU guide rails).

It opens a nostalgic solution that is perfect for Johnson.

A return to a 1970s style relationship with the EU that's all trade no "superstate".

It has more holes in it than tariff-free Swiss Cheese but far fewer holes than the mess they've got themselves into...and it still avoids difficult things like tax evasion directives.

One question: can he suppress or shut up Brexiters and Farage so he can sign?

He needs two months; the construct exists and needs only minor tweaking.

Just about the amount of time from Presidential Election to the transition of power.

Farage could be locked away under Covid19 measures if necessary...I'm sure he'll get that message.

Then. Independence!