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Noble Francis

10 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read

@ONS

In spite of the recovery in UK construction activity since social distancing restrictions eased, construction has lost 142,000 jobs since 2019 Q4, pre-Covid-19, & lost 258,035 jobs since the recent peak of 2019 Q1 according to @ONS.
#ukconstruction
ons.gov.uk/employmentandl…

UK Construction employment in 2020 Q3 was 7% lower than a year earlier & 11% lower than the recent peak of 2019 Q1, which is broadly in line with activity overall in construction overall at the end of September...
#ukconstruction

... given that UK construction demand overall has not returned to pre-Covid-19 levels (although it clearly has in some sectors e.g. infrastructure, housing new build & refurb) combined with fewer trades on site simultaneously due to social distancing especially...
#ukconstruction

... combined with other safety measures that affects site numbers particularly in sectors such as commercial (towers!) & industrial, in which demand is falling as projects started pre-Covid-19 finish & are not replaced at the same rate.
#ukconstruction

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Noble Francis

@NobleFrancis

12 Nov

Total construction output in September 2020 was 2.9% higher than in August but still remained 10.0% lower than a year earlier but there were considerable differences across the different construction sectors...
#ukconstruction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust…

... & on a quarterly basis, total construction output 2020 Q3 was unsurprisingly 41.7% higher than in (Lockdown 1-affected) Q2 but it remained 12.6% lower than a year earlier...
#ukconstruction

... & note that whilst output in Q3 was 12.6% lower than a year ago, ONS employment data earlier this week shows construction employment in Q3 was 'only' 7.4% lower than a year earlier but hours worked in construction in Q3 were 17.1% lower than a year earlier...
#ukconstruction

Read 20 tweets

Noble Francis

@NobleFrancis

31 Jul 19

A thread on the latest CPA construction forecasts & 'No Deal' scenario (I'll summarise the results initially and then provide background/context)...
#ukconstruction #ukhousing #Brexit #NoDeal

The CPA is forecasting that construction output will fall marginally (-0.3%) in 2019 & grow by 1.0% in 2020 assuming a smooth Brexit (either the Withdrawal Agreement with a fudge on the backstop or another delay to Article 50)...
#ukconstruction

... but construction activity is mixed by region & sector. Infrastructure, housing (North West, Yorkshire & Midlands) & industrial warehouses growth offsets falls in commercial, industrial factories & housing (London, South East & parts of the East)...
#ukconstruction #ukhousing

Read 31 tweets

Noble Francis

@NobleFrancis

18 Dec 18

A 'No Deal' Brexit would pose major problems for the UK construction industry in the short-term & long-term. A brief thread...
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit

There are skills issues in UK construction. In 2018 Q3, 82% of contractors reported difficulties recruiting carpenters & joiners, 78% reported difficulties recruiting bricklayers & 63% reported difficulties recruiting plasterers.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit

In 2018 Q3, 70% of main contractors reported difficulties recruiting roofers, 63% reported difficulties recruiting plumbers & half of main contractors reported difficulties recruiting painters & decorators.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit

Read 17 tweets

Noble Francis

@NobleFrancis

14 Nov 18

For all the recent talk of Interserve, their problems are not just recent ones. Their decline has been clear for four years. Their share price yesterday was 94.7% lower than at peak (in March 2014)...
#ukconstruction #outsourcing #interserve

... & 83% of their invoices are not even paid within the agreed payment terms. It's not merely a company-specific issue, the government outsourcing model is fundamentally flawed as we also saw with Carillion...
#ukconstruction #outsourcing #interserve

... that involves Winner's Curse (desperation to (continue to) win contracts means winning them at low or negative margins & also poor acquisitions & expansions into new sectors without the knowledge in those areas...
#ukconstruction #outsourcing #interserve

Read 4 tweets

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