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Noble Francis @NobleFrancis
, 17 tweets, 20 min read Read on Twitter
A 'No Deal' Brexit would pose major problems for the UK construction industry in the short-term & long-term. A brief thread...
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
There are skills issues in UK construction. In 2018 Q3, 82% of contractors reported difficulties recruiting carpenters & joiners, 78% reported difficulties recruiting bricklayers & 63% reported difficulties recruiting plasterers.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
In 2018 Q3, 70% of main contractors reported difficulties recruiting roofers, 63% reported difficulties recruiting plumbers & half of main contractors reported difficulties recruiting painters & decorators.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
The difficulties recruiting construction labour are unsurprising in a period of low UK unemployment & in London there is a high reliance on non-UK & EU labour in particular. 49% of labour in house building in London is from the EU.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
Large contractors & house builders have the headlines but 86% of UK construction employment is in small & medium size firms (SMEs) so whatever is in place needs to deal with SMEs' lack of admin/HR & financial resource (cash flow!).
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
In the longer-term, UK construction will have to deal with the high age demographic of the UK born workforce that means industry could be losing around 500,000 workers (around 1/4 of the workforce) in the next ten years.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
The view of the Migration Advisory Committee, advising government is to use Tier 2 & Tier 5 visas. Contractors need good, quick & experienced people. Tier 5 does not give you that so the reliance will be on Tier 2 visas.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
Tier 2 visas are conditional on the job, the job needs to be a higher or medium skill level & generally earn more than £30,000. Government classifies most construction trades as 'low skilled' & some do not meet the earnings level.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
There are 183 construction-related & construction product manufacturing occupations ineligible (on wage or skill level) for Tier 2 visas according to the government's website. Here are the first 80...
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
gov.uk/guidance/immig…
The next 80 construction-related & construction product manufacturing occupations ineligible (on wage or skill level) for Tier 2 visas according to the government's website.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
gov.uk/guidance/immig…
The final 23 construction-related & construction product manufacturing occupations ineligible (on wage or skill level) for Tier 2 visas according to the government's website.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
In terms of UK construction materials & products (trade), 77% of materials & products used in UK construction are made in the UK.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
Of the materials & products used in UK construction that are imported, 62% come from the EU.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
Significant delays to imports could clearly have a major impact & the focus of 'No Deal' has been on stockpiling but this isn't always possible due to a variety of factors.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
Problems for around 'No Deal' on the construction labour & construction products trade side may not be insurmountable but require considerable time, clear planning & major investment.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
But there is little time, there has been a lack of planning by government (who are bickering amongst themselves), firms (who haven't had guidance on what to plan for or hedge against) & households (largely just ignoring 'No Deal').
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
The key impact of 'No Deal' on construction products trade would be a 15-20% depreciation of Sterling, given markets have factored in a deal, which could mean a consequent rise in imported product prices.
#ukhousing #ukconstruction #NoDeal #NoDealBrexit
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More from @NobleFrancis see all

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For all the recent talk of Interserve, their problems are not just recent ones. Their decline has been clear for four years. Their share price yesterday was 94.7% lower than at peak (in March 2014)...
#ukconstruction #outsourcing #interserve
... & 83% of their invoices are not even paid within the agreed payment terms. It's not merely a company-specific issue, the government outsourcing model is fundamentally flawed as we also saw with Carillion...
#ukconstruction #outsourcing #interserve
... that involves Winner's Curse (desperation to (continue to) win contracts means winning them at low or negative margins & also poor acquisitions & expansions into new sectors without the knowledge in those areas...
#ukconstruction #outsourcing #interserve
Read 4 tweets
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Thread: It's easy for government to make announcements like the Prime Minister's 240,000 homes per year (2007) or the Chancellor's 300,000 homes per year this weekend but...
#ukhousing
I'm not trying to be negative. The point is that if government is serious about building 300,000 homes per year, we need a long-term government plan irrespective of constant changes in housing minister (lasting 16 months on average in the past 20 years)...
#ukhousing
Announcing a large target for PR with a few gimmicks but allowing the market to collapse & blaming investors for land hoarding, house builders for land banking, lack of brick layers &/or bricks & complaining about low productivity helps no one.
#ukhousing
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Thread:
Lately I have become a bit obsessed with Britain’s trade deficit and Balance of Payments with the Rest of The World(ROW). Let me explain why, and what’s it got to do with #Brexit.
For me as a UK-expat in Euroland I have seen the value of my pension drop by 20% since the dreaded referendum.
Let’s home in on what happened around the time of the referendum. Although part of a longer term decline, the sharp drop did not go unnoticed by the commentariat. Sharp drop in Sterling rate highlighted June July 2016Cartoon of pound falling off cliff
Read 22 tweets
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Managed #NoDeal
#NoDealBrexit
#NoDealNoProblem
Managed #CleanBreak
Managed #NoDeal
#NoDealBrexit
#NoDealNoProblem
Managed #CleanBreak
Managed #NoDeal
#NoDealBrexit
#NoDealNoProblem
Managed #CleanBreak
Read 8 tweets
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#BrexitChaos - thread: need for definitions:

#NoDeal #nodealbrexit means crashing out: no arrangements with the #EU or other member states, no transition period. Means losing all existing trade deals & years of global negociations
#WTO ≠ trade deal (look it up!) 1/9
@theresa_may #WithdrawalAgreement is the framework for a future #UK #EU future relationship. Allows for an orderly #Brexit with transition period, but leaves many issues to resolve, trade deals and regulations to negotiate, which will take many years and be costly. No "dividend"!
It is possible to #StopBrexit and #Remain. This means staying in the #EU with all current benefits, reciprocal rights and protections, free trade and movement for goods, services and people within the EU. To do this, Govt must #RevokeA50 (Article 50=notice given to #Leave 3/9
Read 10 tweets
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1. Some background on this major story which broke yesterday: The Taxpayers' Alliance admitted that 9 "linked" organisations coordinated to vilify @shahmiruk These groups are operating from an office at 55 Tufton Street, around the corner from Westminster.
2. Here is what you need to know about these opaquely-funded libertarian groups, which are pushing for a hard (no-deal) Brexit, advocating deregulation to strike a US-UK free trade deal and include climate science denying Global Warming Policy Foundation👇 desmog.co.uk/2018/07/23/map…
3. @shahmiruk accused the 9 groups of mounting a coordinating campaign to push for a hard-#Brexit and deregulation across the media. The Taxpayers' Alliance has just admitted that, indeed, this is the case and climate science deniers and hard-Brexiters are working together.
Read 10 tweets
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1/ Medical radioisotopes and ‘no-deal’ Brexit.

What’s the problem and how will patients be affected?

What will be done to protect these vital NHS services?

Here’s a thread on the issues surrounding a nuclear #NoDealBrexit.
2/ Medical radioisotopes are elements used to diagnose or treat a broad range of diseases. These include cancer, palliative and cardiovascular treatments. Around 1 million patients in the UK each year rely on radioisotopes.
We import ~80% and are unable to be self-sufficient.
3/ The most common element used is Technetium-99m (99mTc).

Most medical radioisotopes are imported from Belgium, France and the Netherlands. The UK has no research reactors to produce 99mTc, or its parent element molybdenum-99 (99Mo).

99mTc has a half-life of ~6 hours.
Read 22 tweets
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1.Sick of the do-gooding talk of MPs stating they'll block a No Deal #Brexit but 'honour' the Ref.
There nothing to honour, it was based on lies & illegalities & it now has no legitimacy. MPs need to pull their bloody fingers out & block #Brexit fullstop!
ft.com/content/899828…
2.
3.
Read 3 tweets

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