This is a plot of the daily reported #COVID19 (c)ases (light blue), (h)ospitalizations (light orange), and (f)atalities (light red) in #Switzerland. In addition, I plotted the cumulative numbers added up over 14 days for (c) and (f) and over 22 days for (h), corresp. dark colors.
What do we learn from the data? The second #COVID19 wave in #Switzerland has reached levels in all indicators (c,h,f) (somewhat) larger than the first wave. The peak daily reported (c)ases are a factor 8.5 times higher than in the first wave.
The peak reported (f)atalities and (h)ospitalizations per day are 1.5 and 1.25 times higher than in the first wave. Both likely have not reached their maximum yet. Also (h) data comes in with a delay of up to 7 days from the current date, while for (c) and (f) it is ~3 days.
The (c)ase data integrated over 14 days shows that currently (still) 1% of the population of #Switzerland has been tested positive for #COVID19 in that period, which is an alarmingly high fraction. Positivity is still around 20% and peaked at well above 25%.
The @WHO threshold level for positivity of epidemic tests, which is considered controllable, is 5%, which #Switzerland is much above since an extended period of time already.
#COVID19 (h)ospitalizations in #Switzerland were more than 200 per day over the past weeks. The total number of hospitalized patients is about 3800 currently, indicating a typical hospitalization time of 22 days (see integrated (h) data, orange curve). Not pleasant.
#COVID19 Fatalities in #Switzerland added up over the last 14 days (dark red) reach 850. Which is significant. Imagine four Airbus 320 crashes during the last 2 weeks with no survivors. This also is the total number of #Swiss #traffic #fatalities (#car, #rail, #air) for 4 years!
So where is #COVID19 headed in #Switzerland, based on that data? Analyzing the case data for the last 14 days (neglecting the last 3 days, due to the reporting delay) shows a reduction in reported cases. At this rate the number of reported cases halves every 20 days, a bit slow.
The doubling time of #COVID19 daily reported (h)ospitalizations (l. orange) in #Switzerland has slowed from 5 days a couple of weeks ago to 15 days. Considering the reporting delay of up to 7 days, the reported numbers may still go up. Conversely, the data shows no down turn yet.
Similarly, the doubling time of daily reported #COVID19 fatalities (light red) in #Switzerland has reduced from a 5 day period to about a 13 day period considering the last 14 days (neglecting the last three due to the typical reporting delays).
If the current #COVID10 trends in #Switzerland continue at their current rates, the respective number of daily reported cases, hospitalizations and fatalities in two weeks from now will have the values indicated by the extrapolated red numbers. So no time to ease measures yet!
Stay safe, stay healthy and contribute to regaining control over #COVID19 in #Switzerland until a vaccine is available widely enough!
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More from @AndreasAtETH

14 Nov
Is it time for a #quantumquiz to see if you are an expert in experimental #quantum #computing (with superconducting circuits)?

Let’s give it a try!

Part 1:
What is this? And what is it a part of? Image
Too easy? Too hard?

Here is another one!

#quantumquiz part 2:

What is this part of? Image
You may want to click on the photos to see some more.
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