Both #Alberta and #BritishColumbia have had some reporting difficulties of late. I’ve omitted the BC trend in anticipation of tomorrow’s post-weekend report. (2/5)
Bonus tweet: Remember, when case growth is unchecked, surveillance breaks down. In hotspots, there is a high likelihood that cases are being severely underestimated.
Courtesy of the COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group: opencovid.ca
❗WHAT MAKES PERCENT POSITIVITY SUCH A CRITICAL METRIC IN A PANDEMIC?❓
(1/36) Plus: thoughts on #COVID19 response thresholds in #Ontario and why #Europe is a crystal ball for #Canada... Mega-thread below. 👇🧵🚨
(2/36) While it may be the daily case numbers that grab the headlines, it’s far from the most important metric to watch when determining the trajectory of COVID-19, as I’ve written before.
(3/36) Instead, we should be focusing on other metrics, like the 7-day rolling average, the number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities and percent positivity.
❗ONTARIO, STOP REACTING TO THE DAILY COVID CASE COUNTS❗
(1/48) Why daily #COVID19 case counts are not the most relevant number and what #Ontario should be paying attention to instead. Mega-thread below. 👇🧵🚨
(2/48) Let’s begin by recapping what daily reported case counts are supposed to represent. When we look at them, we get a picture of what the epidemic looked like 1–2 weeks ago, so any change in the trajectory of the epidemic will take some time to show up in the daily counts.
(3/48) Why? Because it takes ~5 days from time of infection to begin showing symptoms, and then further days to seek testing, get tested, and finally process the test and report the results. This lag is affected by a number of factors, such as the size of the testing backlog.
🚨 #Ontario made the call today to re-implement modified stage 2 restrictions in #Ottawa, #Toronto, and #Peel due to the resurgence in #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations. 📈
(1/20) Some thoughts on where COVID-19 is going in the province. Thread.🧵⬇️
(2/20) This should not be a surprise to anyone. It has been apparent that COVID-19 is once again on an exponential trajectory in Ontario for at least several weeks.
(3/20) A confluence of recent events—the testing backlog, the transition to appointment-based testing, the suspension of contact tracing—have made daily case numbers in the province less reliable, especially in hard-hit areas like Toronto.
(1/42) What it means and what you can do. Mega-thread below.🧵 🚨
(2/42) We are now well into the second wave of COVID-19 in Canada. 🌊
Geographically, recent cases have been concentrated in Canada’s four largest provinces, particularly in and around #Montreal and the #GTA. But cases have been growing at an alarming rate across the country.
(3/42) % change in 7-day rolling average of cases compared to one week ago:
MB: +95.6% 📈 (22.7/day ➡️ 44.4/day)
QC: +57.8% 📈 (409.4/day ➡️ 646.1/day)
ON: +37.2% 📈 (357.6/day ➡️ 490.7/day)
What does the #COVID19 resurgence in #Montreal look like? Heavily concentrated in the city's central and eastern neighbourhoods. A visual aid for @Aaron_Derfel's excellent analysis.👇