Thread by @LawrenceGostin

94% efficacy of @moderna_tx vaccine at interim analysis of 95 events is stunning. Offers realistic prospect of the beginning of the end of #COVID19 pandemic. Efficacy high enough to eliminate (not eradicate) #SARSCoV2. Comparable to measles vaccine. Don't pop the champagne yet 1X

Having 2 vaccines will boost supplies, but adds layer of complexity. Having 2 Ebola vaccines in DRC actually caused huge public fights & public confusion. We don't know which #covid vaccine is better & on which pops. We need studies comparing efficacy & risk profiles of vaccines.

Both @moderna_tx & @pfizer vaccines are new mRNA technologies so never before used widely. If effective, it could revolutionize vaccine development. Both vaccines need 2-doses, so tracking & reminder systems will be key.

Moderna vaccine doesn't need deep freeze like Pfizer vaccine, so it will be easier to deliver & store in pharmacies & doctors offices.

COVID vaccine campaign will be most audacious in history. Logistics are deeply challenging:

- Vaccine infrastructure like vials & syringes
- Trained vaccine workers in safe settings
- Delivery to poor & rural populations
- Overcoming vaccine distrust & vaccinating critical mass

Here's the giant in the room. Unless we change behavior (masks, distancing, handwashing), the US is facing 100-200K deaths before wide deployment of vaccine. With no federal plan, pandemic fatigue, cold weather, holidays the deaths & hospitalizations will be devastating.

Having a promising vaccine could lead people to be more careful to just get through this dark winter until the cavalry arrives. But I fear the opposite. Studies show that if there are promising treatments or vaccines, the public gets careless. So please, stay safe.