Thread by @dkcrypto13

Thoughts on #markets into year end and beyond, we know:
- Fed is printing
- Vaccine is working
- Money market fund holdings still at record highs (ie money that does not earn a thing and watches in agony as markets climb)
- Biden returns calm to politics

#bitcoin #SP500 #NASDAQ

So what is needed for markets to fall?

You’d need one of the above factors to change.

The Fed said many times they will not step off the gas till unemployment is much, much lower so thats not an immediate concern.

The vaccine could see safety issues or uptake could be slow...

... but it won’t change the fact that the virus is beaten by a combination of vaccine & rapid at home testing, latest end of 2021.

Money market fund holdings likely return to riskier assets, but there is a lot of fuel left before tank is empty.

That leaves us with the Donald...

... I think aside from a really adverse vaccine headline, the biggest tail risk to markets is that Trump does not go away as everyone assumes and instead calls for unrest and tries to stay in the White House with help of the military. Nobody is expecting that, so it would...

... hit markets badly. Given there are about 40% of the people in the US who are naive enough to think this election was a fraud it is probably more likely to happen than markets assume but it remains a tail risk.

Lockdowns are likely to only cause short term volatility now...

... given investors will always loom ahead a few months and know “it’s over soon” and it’s not all that likely we see record holiday bookings & people celebrating the end of lockdowns with spending sprees (whether for goods or experiences).

Am I missing something?

Not advice.