DK Profile picture
19 Nov, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Thoughts on #markets into year end and beyond, we know:
- Fed is printing
- Vaccine is working
- Money market fund holdings still at record highs (ie money that does not earn a thing and watches in agony as markets climb)
- Biden returns calm to politics

#bitcoin #SP500 #NASDAQ
So what is needed for markets to fall?

You’d need one of the above factors to change.

The Fed said many times they will not step off the gas till unemployment is much, much lower so thats not an immediate concern.

The vaccine could see safety issues or uptake could be slow...
... but it won’t change the fact that the virus is beaten by a combination of vaccine & rapid at home testing, latest end of 2021.

Money market fund holdings likely return to riskier assets, but there is a lot of fuel left before tank is empty.

That leaves us with the Donald...
... I think aside from a really adverse vaccine headline, the biggest tail risk to markets is that Trump does not go away as everyone assumes and instead calls for unrest and tries to stay in the White House with help of the military. Nobody is expecting that, so it would...
... hit markets badly. Given there are about 40% of the people in the US who are naive enough to think this election was a fraud it is probably more likely to happen than markets assume but it remains a tail risk.

Lockdowns are likely to only cause short term volatility now...
... given investors will always loom ahead a few months and know “it’s over soon” and it’s not all that likely we see record holiday bookings & people celebrating the end of lockdowns with spending sprees (whether for goods or experiences).

Am I missing something?

Not advice.

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More from @dkcrypto13

14 Nov
In all seriousness though, let me attempt to explain the #tether sends to #binance.

Everybody knows that $USDT is used to paint the #bitcoin price whichever way the tether cartel members would like it, mostly upwards. There is no single Dollar in actual money coming into...
... tether. Definitely not since liquid stable coin alternatives with full KYC & AML compliance as well as regular audits have become widely available. And I am, as you can see above, in the camp of those who believe the entire #tether system is a scam. However...
... when #binance receives $USDT, the simple fact is that the exchange has long comingled usdt, other stable coins and actual usd. So when the trade volume on binance goes up, they may choose (depending on said comingling) to settle in usdt or posting in usdt, so...
Read 7 tweets
7 Nov
Okay, so I have seen it propagated on #crypto twitter too often now to ignore it. So let me clearly explain:

Today’s drop in #bitcoin price had nothing whatsoever to do with Biden being projected to win the US election. Markets do not work that way. Here is what happened:
$BTC had run up by 30% in 3 weeks, in the process taking out more or less every identifiable chart resistance on the road to its ATH. People doubted this move so much that CME shorts reached record levels and leverage funding was consistently paying longs and charging shorts,...
... fueling the move further and further. This weekend, finally, the situation turned and financing went to levels that you can easily connect with “moderate euphoria” historically. That is typically when #bitcoin experiences a larger short-term drop....
Read 9 tweets
1 Nov
We’re still at resistance and still overbought. But futures are also not in contango and funding rates are negative. Everything absolutely could be very different this time, but #bitcoin usually dives when funding is strongly positive and futures deep in contango...
...What’s more is after almost highest monthly close ever, should check if we are in another tulip run. Bubbles end in euphoria. Euphoria implies massively leveraged long speculation. That is not the case in $BTC. At all. Looks like healthy skepticism, climbing wall of worries...
...So unless (BIG if) #tether has simply washtraded & spoofed #bitcoin up without anyone participating in the run (entirely possible though seems unlikely given some larger names that bought exposure last three months), this does not look like the end of a run at all. Not advice.
Read 4 tweets
29 Dec 19
Follows & Unfollows - #FF & #UFF 2020

Isn’t Friday, but if you are in #crypto, want a balanced,well-informed view & are looking for accounts to follow,I suggest both a list of follows & mutes to avoid the cult.Opinion only! My suggestions:

#bitcoin $BTC #CT $crypto #blockchain
The Follows:

#CT accounts I genuinely respect or provide value mixed with some I do not agree with at all that are key to #bitcoin. Some will still spam you with typical propaganda from time to time, but at least they eat their own medicine and are undeniably core to $BTC
Read 8 tweets
9 Nov 19
1/ More and more I seem to get added to twitter lists called “#bitcoin skeptics” or similar. Perhaps I should explain a bit.

So for the record, I’d like to state a few things about #crypto, #altcoins, #tehter & $BTC from my POV:
2/ I am not a #bitcoin skeptic. I recognize the potential of a decentralized, immutable (by current tools and disregarding miner centralization) database. I am enthusiastic about seeing what it will do for us, such as preventing identity theft or authenticating assets.
3/ I detest easy answers to problems of today’s political & financial systems and have a strong impulse to mistrust consensus opinion & “religious” zeal. More than anything, I truly hate when people are taken advantage of due to levels of understanding or education.
Read 20 tweets
16 May 19
1/ A few observations on #bitcoin, #tether and #crypto regarding what happened in the last 30 days or so. $BTC $ETH
2/ Obviously we all saw that, despite the unwillingness of #tether to provide an audit, there now seems to be enough public or non-public information available to the NYAG for them to allege that $USDT were, at least for a time, not backed up with USD.
3/ Furthermore, the cited conversation between Oz and Merlin shows beyond reasonable doubt (to me) that the #bitfinex/#tether complex engaged in market manipulation to avoid what would be a black-swan event for them
Read 19 tweets

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