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1/ A few observations on #bitcoin, #tether and #crypto regarding what happened in the last 30 days or so. $BTC $ETH
2/ Obviously we all saw that, despite the unwillingness of #tether to provide an audit, there now seems to be enough public or non-public information available to the NYAG for them to allege that $USDT were, at least for a time, not backed up with USD.
3/ Furthermore, the cited conversation between Oz and Merlin shows beyond reasonable doubt (to me) that the #bitfinex/#tether complex engaged in market manipulation to avoid what would be a black-swan event for them
4/ Note that this is enough to be a problem - even IF #tether is fully backed or was at some point. If they got there by trading with your funds that is outright fraud.
5/ The result was a huge spike in #bitfinex-#bitstamp premium for the price of #bitcoin, given that #bitfinex experienced nothing short of a bank run. As far as @tokenanalyst data shows, this run has NOT yet ended.
6/ To patch things up, #bitfinex announced that they raised $1 bn with an #IEO, a new form of #ICO (scam). Of course, no one can verify if that is true or just an announcement to appear solvent
7/ What is much more interesting though is that $BTC price has obviously shot up by 50+% since the news about NYAG suit against #bitfinex/#tether became public
8/ This is fully correlated to a complete erasing of the #bitfinex-#bitstamp premium and some sources saying #bfx enabled USD cash withdrawals (though via 3rd party bank accounts...). The premium was actually negative over the last days
9/ Personally, think what is going on is too easy to see: the NYAG suit threatened #tether and #bitfinex survival (and still does). Furthermore,not too difficult to see that company that would gamble with custody funds engages in further fraudulent activities (Money laundering?)
10/ So in reaction, the same group of people that has been manipulating #bitcoin prices via wash trading and spoofing mostly in $USDT decided they need to creat massive FOMO and price appreciation to ensure their own survival or exit scam
11/ Hence, large "clients" were allowed to withdraw into USD so that they could then push prices, using the same exact methods, on USD based exchanges. This may or may not be enough to stoke FOMO like it did last time around.
12/ There is absolutely no reason to believe this (except for all the reasons to believe that #tether, #bitfinex and sadly, large portions of OGs all have a huge incentive to keep the FOMO alive and have engaged in less than honorable conduct before)
13/ Those who do not (want to) believe this: ask yourself why, after an existential threat to $USDT, #bitcoin is MORE expensive in USD than in #tether,price runs up in straight line & 1/3 of total move, including move of the #bfx-#stamp premium below zero happens on the WEEKEND.
14/ Institutional investors all waking up and buying in droves on the weekend? Not sure, but then they adjusted to #crypto pretty fast...
15/ FWIW, my opionion is that his is an entirely manufactured pump that will be followed by a dump UNLESS it is enough to re-ignite full blown retail FOMO. Any move towards $6k from here will see some #HODL ers panic btw as they don't want to experience lows again
16/ I am also still in line with my last article for those wondering. Purely technically, I am looking to see if we get a re-test of any broken level and if it will hold. That does not put my fundamental concerns about the above to rest though.
17/ Importantly, I am STILL a #crypto enthusiast - that is why I want this kind of stuff to go away and not to be supported. But #altcoins still have no usecase and #bitcoin kind of doesn't either aside from FOMO & money laundering.
end/ All of this is personal opinion. None of this is financial advice, None of this is legal advice.
addendum/ I would like to mention that the one thing that makes me question this theory (and the only thing) is the extremely high USD volume over the last few days. But that could be a by product of the manipulation as well. It is undoubtedly supportive though
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