Okay, so I have seen it propagated on #crypto twitter too often now to ignore it. So let me clearly explain:
Today’s drop in #bitcoin price had nothing whatsoever to do with Biden being projected to win the US election. Markets do not work that way. Here is what happened:
Today’s drop in #bitcoin price had nothing whatsoever to do with Biden being projected to win the US election. Markets do not work that way. Here is what happened:
$BTC had run up by 30% in 3 weeks, in the process taking out more or less every identifiable chart resistance on the road to its ATH. People doubted this move so much that CME shorts reached record levels and leverage funding was consistently paying longs and charging shorts,...
... fueling the move further and further. This weekend, finally, the situation turned and financing went to levels that you can easily connect with “moderate euphoria” historically. That is typically when #bitcoin experiences a larger short-term drop....
... It was purely technical and easily foreseeable. Don’t believe it? Check out my tweet below.
Furthermore, markets anticipate what happens and strong reactions that are fundamentally driven (which this was not) occur when events take an UNexpected turn...
Furthermore, markets anticipate what happens and strong reactions that are fundamentally driven (which this was not) occur when events take an UNexpected turn...
https://twitter.com/dkcrypto13/status/1324683276942979073
... However, Biden winning was easily expected after he claimed WI and MI outright and $BTC reacted positively along with all other markets. The fact he carried PA was also easily assumed after he flipped Trump’s lead and there were only mail-in ballots left to count...
... So this was not unexpected. If anything you could paint this move as “buy the rumor, sell the news”, implying that people were long #bitcoin in anticipation of a positive event (a Biden win) and when it happened people took profits. But even that is unlikely...
The truth is: nobody knows if Trump or Biden is better for $BTC. Sure, Trump sews more chaos and plays to the part of #crypto that would love to see anarchy, but in truth if Trump had seen a way to personally benefit from #bitcoin he’d have been a great positive and vice versa...
... Where Biden stands is simply an unknown. He and the Dems might just as well be responsible for creating regulations that are enforced that crush #crypto as they could be for creating a regulated, mainstream future for a new sector of the economy...
...TL,DR: #bitcoin’s short term price moves are not driven by the US election anymore than any other risky asset. It is not a safe haven, it is a risky, innovative asset and recent moves were purely technical and extremely foreseeable.
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