Thread by @rachelshelden

Been thinking a lot about how this mirrors a major element of the lead up to and unfolding of the Secession Crisis in 1860-61. It's not a 1-1 comparison but, per Mark Twain, "history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes." 1/

https://twitter.com/allinwithchris/status/1329958627453628417

By 1860, members of Congress had been delivering what were called "buncombe" speeches in the House & Senate for decades. "Speaking for buncombe," as members called it, meant speeches not for other members (who generally paid them no attention), but for constituents at home. 2/

Buncombe speeches ranged widely in their subject matter but typically they were designed to prove to constituents that the congressman or senator was working for their needs and beliefs. By the 1850s, a significant majority of these buncombe speeches were about slavery. 3/

This was true among both Northern and Southern members. But particularly in the Deep South, where, by the mid-1850s the states increasingly featured one-party rule (by Democrats), senators & reps felt a more pressing need to prove their pro-slavery bonafides in Congress 4/

Buncombe speeches from southern Democrats typically featured warnings that Northerners intended to violate their "constitutional right" to enslave Black Americans. And many included insults and threats against Republican members of Congress. 5/

Following these insults, southern Democrats would often apologize to their colleagues for their language and congressional relationships remained mostly friendly. But that's not what constituents saw. Southern congressmen were fanning the flames of anger toward northerners. 6/

After years of buncombe speeches aimed at convincing southerners that northerners--and especially Republicans--were a threat to slavery, Abraham Lincoln's election looked far scarier to white southerners on the ground than to the politicians in Washington. 7/

Some DC pols had long been in favor of southern separation, but a majority were surprised by the mass anger that took hold in the South following Lincoln's election. Senator Jefferson Davis, for example, dismissed any talk of secession in mid-November. 8/

But in the states, white southerners were furious. They loudly exclaimed that their representatives in Washington were failing them by their efforts to compromise with the North. They revolted against DC. 9/

Soon southern senators and reps felt no choice but to follow the anger of their constituents and withdraw from their positions in Congress. Secession reflected widespread belief that the federal government could not protect slavery; a belief that was the opposite of reality. 10/

White southerners voted to leave the Union because they had been told they should feel aggrieved. White southerners claimed oppression by the North even while controlling all 3 branches of the federal government for decades. And senators & reps couldn't control that anger. 11/

It's hard to not to see some version of this happening now. As @chrislhayes pointed out, the GOP has been fanning the flames of incredulity and perceived oppression and now they can't control it. Publicly accepting Biden's victory only leads their constituents to resist THEM. 12/

In 1861, this behavior led to a bloody civil war that killed 750,000 people. We have to hope that is not the outcome here. 13/13