Farmajo has been disaster for the security of Somalia; security has worsened since 2016, majority of the time since 2016, Farmajo was ruling Somalia . 
https://twitter.com/brookingsinst/status/1330184450530025474
The report notes three factors that may worsen the security in Somalia:
- upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections
- The crisis in Tigrai region, #Ethiopia
- Trump’s Plan to withdraw US security forces from Somalia .
- This writer: the omens for Horn are not propitious
- upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections
- The crisis in Tigrai region, #Ethiopia
- Trump’s Plan to withdraw US security forces from Somalia .
- This writer: the omens for Horn are not propitious
Under Farmajo security has been declining:
- Shebab expanded its reach to Puntland and Somaliland
- levies taxes throughout #Somalia,including Mogadishu, Kismayo and Bosaso port.
- controls major roads,
enjoys freedom of movement and adjudicates disputes in Fed controlled areas
- Shebab expanded its reach to Puntland and Somaliland
- levies taxes throughout #Somalia,including Mogadishu, Kismayo and Bosaso port.
- controls major roads,
enjoys freedom of movement and adjudicates disputes in Fed controlled areas
The report mentions that Somali security forces are weak due to
- collection of fractious clan forces, not professional force
- This is likely, this writer, due to lack of security agreement assuring mutual defense and preventing the use of the forces to serve tyrannical agenda
- collection of fractious clan forces, not professional force
- This is likely, this writer, due to lack of security agreement assuring mutual defense and preventing the use of the forces to serve tyrannical agenda
Worse case scenario as Ethiopia crisis deepens:
- #Ethiopia may withdraw its troops from #Somalia, estimated (writer) to be 10k-19k
- AMISOM relies on Ethiopian forces, should they leave, others like Djibouti, Burundi & Uganda may leave, salary inducement is likely to be no avail
- #Ethiopia may withdraw its troops from #Somalia, estimated (writer) to be 10k-19k
- AMISOM relies on Ethiopian forces, should they leave, others like Djibouti, Burundi & Uganda may leave, salary inducement is likely to be no avail
Farmajo, like Abiy wants to centralize power
- UAE supports Ethiopia, Eretria and some Somali regional states against Farmajo
- if crisis deepens, Farmajo may be abandoned
- Farmajo opposes UAE investments of Northern ports: it strengthens PL and SL autonomous ambitions.
- UAE supports Ethiopia, Eretria and some Somali regional states against Farmajo
- if crisis deepens, Farmajo may be abandoned
- Farmajo opposes UAE investments of Northern ports: it strengthens PL and SL autonomous ambitions.
This writer
Farmajo wants to control them by controlling economy;
- he does not oppose UAE investment: he agreed with Abiy Ahmed to search investments for four ports, northern ports included.
- This explains the economic road blockades of Mogadishu, sustained for 3.5 years.
Farmajo wants to control them by controlling economy;
- he does not oppose UAE investment: he agreed with Abiy Ahmed to search investments for four ports, northern ports included.
- This explains the economic road blockades of Mogadishu, sustained for 3.5 years.
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