#stockmarket Last WE update I discussed dialing back on equities & despite + vaccine news the #SPX was down .77% for the wk. Risk still remains to the downside IMO, although can't be too bearish until we break the ranges. $SPY flag or lower high? ...
#stockmarket marked white circles (above) are showing heavy volume distribution days since Sept is not bullish. But for now the supply is getting absorbed. The Demark chart shows Day 2 of a price flip down following the completed 9-13-9 sell, and closed <5day EMA....
#stockmarket On the flip side, if $SPY can take out this flag to the upside, Demark propulsion up is active w/ a $390 tgt. If that happens, I would first measure any move w/ trend factor projections (367.44, 376.40, 385,37 - see red boxes)...
#stockmarket but if $SPY breaks lower, downside Demark Trendfactor lvls (white boxes) are in play to measure the move: 354.10, 344.12, 334.41, 324.98....
#stockmarket The #Dow is still above its B/O lvl but closed below the 5day EMA and looking vulnerable. Needs to hold here otherwise I would think fills the gap below....
#stockmarket The Russell actually looks the most constructive despite having printing Demark exhaustion last wk (Seq 13 sell). Higher RSI on the recent B/O, now flagging above 3 B/O zones and closing near the highs on Friday vs the major indexes closing on their lows....
#stockmarket #nasdaq looks fairly undecided - now in a narrow boxed range after a series of failed up moves. Question is do we break up or do we break down?
#stockmarket Bberg most short growth index has performed better than the FANGS recently but now w/ Demark 13 sells and negatively diverging RSI. Breaking down here would be bearish the Naz....
#stockmarket Smartmoney index, something i've highlighted multiple times, can't seem to get going and a big warning sign IMO. Corroborates my 1st slide w/ SPY distribution days. Bulls need to see this turn up....
#stockmarket McClellan Summation Index overlaid w/ Demarks (insanely good track record of calling mkt swings), posted a 9 sell last wk w/ a Combo 13 sell looming (could print by Tuesday). Turning down is bearish....
#stockmarket no surprise but still seeing the rotation theme play out as equal weight #SPX forging a new swing high last wk, and highest since Jun....
#stockmarket As posted last wk, the $VIX weekly could post a seq 13 buy this wk w/ a close below 22.41. Aggressive Sequential 13 buy did post last wk (usu this signals reversals early) so being hedged here not a bad idea since vol is getting cheap)...
#stockmarket as mentioned last wk the $VXX did post a Demark 9 buy, to go along with its massive falling wedge. the continuous $VIX contract also posted a 9 buy. Last 9 posted in the $UXA saw the VIX ramp +20%....
#StockMarket Lastly, the $VXX weekly may also print a Combo 13 buy this wk to go along with the Seq 13 buy from 4 wks ago (weekly signals are good for 12 price bars)...
#stockmarket Concl: I encourage reviewing my last WE update as most of the signals posted are still in play. I've added a few this WE & weight of the evidence still keeps me cautious. + seasonality is still in favor for the bulls and price has not broken down....
Price is paramount, so unless key levels are broken (up or down), I remain fairly hedged, heavy cash and trading selectively. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday. @threadreaderapp unroll

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More from @coiledspringcap

15 Nov
#StockMarket WE update. crazy wk. Caught many offsides who were overloaded in tech. I suspect mkt leadership has shifted although it won't be linear. I am growing cautious & increasing hedges. As posted re #SPX last wk, Demark rare 9-13-9 sell printed w/ slo sto neg divergence...
#StockMarket #SPX here is another rarity & one for the bears, Demark 9-13-9 sell is also printing on the yearly chart, which has taken 40+ years to form. Not sure how to trade this but interesting nonetheless...
#stockmarket equally fascinating is that the #nasdaq is doing the same w/ a Demark 9-13-9 sell on the yearly. This in combination w/ the Demark combo & seq 13 sell on the weekly (combo printed last wk). Last time combo 13 sell printed here was the wk of Feb 20th. yikes!..
Read 21 tweets
9 Nov
#stockmarket WE update. My call last WE to buy in the 2H of the wk missed by 2 days. +7% wk & futures up again seems to be getting overheated. Clearly we have a break up of this DTL on #SPX futures, & now on Day 5 of 9 Demark sell set up. Trendfactor up lvls: 1x=3583, 1.5x=3673..
#stockmarket #SPX $SPY also will post Day 5 of 9 sell set up, which would come on Friday if the count is satisfied. Demark Trrendfactor up lvls to be mindful of: 1x up = 354.90, 1.5x=358.47
#stockmarket I posted this chart of the Smart Money Index last wk, as a reason to be concerned as it signaled the Oct peak. Still hovering near the lows but cluster of Demark 13 buys w/ 9 buy set up as well. Hopefully this turns up soon....
Read 14 tweets
6 Nov
$YALA getting tight. Image
$YALA whoa!
Image
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
#stockmarket WE Update. Wild week as expected & I expect more fireworks, but are we close to a bottom? #SPX futures bouncing around the 1.5x Demark trendfactor lvl of 3249 (was 3250 when I started this work). day 6 of Demark buy set up....
#stockmarket $SPY also bouncing around the 1.5x TF level of 324 & closed above. I said on Friday that I thought we were at a level where the mkt might bounce & it did. Day 5 of Demark buy set up. We are also into the green zone where there is price memory.....
#stockmarket $QQQ also on count 5 of Demark buy set up & bounced near the 2x TF level around $265. QQQ also approaching the red box where price memory exists....
Read 17 tweets
26 Oct
#stockmarket WE update. As I've been discussing for wks, the mkt would remain choppy into the election & it has. resolution feels closer but not there yet. Friday was constructive but still some issues ST. $SPY now bumping up against the Asc Triangle & back above key MA's...
#stockmarket #Nasdaq is similar & held an important level. threatening to break the Asc Triangle formation and also above key MA's...
#stockmarket fly in the ointment for tech and the #NASDAQ is that a weekly Demark 13 did print last week to go with the $NDQ 13 sell last wk. not much on the daily. keep in mind these signals can be good for 12 weeks so doesn't mean we will turn down immediately but we can.....
Read 15 tweets
18 Oct
#StockMarket WE update: recent Demark 13 sell I posted this wk marked the swing high & choppiness ensued. Fri was ugly but could be opex related so for now just expecting more of the same unless stimulus resolution breaks us out or down. set up seems bullish but needs to confirm
#stockmarket Demark Trendfactor lvls continue to be a good guide. 13 sell peaked @ 1x up lvl, & found support on 1/2 lvl down. see white boxes for up lvls & blue for down lvls in chart above. daily #SPX chart below also showing a close right @ 5 day EMA on Fri....
#stockmarket #SPX $SPY weekly chart ended w/ a doji candle which shows indecision, & intuitively makes sense given the impasse over stimulus. To me this chart is intermediate term bullish - Large C&H w/ resistance at the B/O point. could it break down from here? sure...
Read 20 tweets

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