#StockMarket WE update. crazy wk. Caught many offsides who were overloaded in tech. I suspect mkt leadership has shifted although it won't be linear. I am growing cautious & increasing hedges. As posted re #SPX last wk, Demark rare 9-13-9 sell printed w/ slo sto neg divergence...
#StockMarket #SPX here is another rarity & one for the bears, Demark 9-13-9 sell is also printing on the yearly chart, which has taken 40+ years to form. Not sure how to trade this but interesting nonetheless...
#stockmarket equally fascinating is that the #nasdaq is doing the same w/ a Demark 9-13-9 sell on the yearly. This in combination w/ the Demark combo & seq 13 sell on the weekly (combo printed last wk). Last time combo 13 sell printed here was the wk of Feb 20th. yikes!..
#StockMarket #nasdaq also has Demark propulsion down active on the daily w/ a tgt of 11300 which happens to coincide exactly w/ the 50day MA....
#stockmarket #NASDAQ pattern itself is interesting w/ a rising wedge into closing all time high resistance w/ massively diverging momentum (RSI)...
#stockmarket as posted last wk, the #Dow also printed a 13 combo sell, 9 sell and hit its Demark propulsions up tgt, w/ negatively diverging slo sto. Also watching if can hold this gap from last wk. also has negatively diverging RSI from Jun high...
#stockmarket Also posted last wk, $VXX has recorded a 9 buy as of Fri, but not perfected. would need to trade below 18.63 to perfect. Last 4x $VXX recorded a Demark 9 signal, there was a reaction. Is this time different?...
#StockMarket $VXX weekly chart also recorded a Demark Seq 13 buy 3 wks ago (signal good for 12 price bars or 12 wks here). Last seq 13 buy was the week of Feb 20th. $VIX weekly also on 11 count which could print a 13 seq buy the wk of thanksgiving....
#stockmarket As discussed many times on my feed, Smart Money Index continues to make new lows and now firmly below the Covid lows, broke the support band and has context for lower into 2018 lows. If bullish you need to see this turn back up....
#stockmarket #SPX $SPY On balance volume now showing a series of lower highs since Feb. $QQQ also showing a series of lower highs since the Sept peak. Not what you want to see as we probe new highs on the indexes....
#stockmarket #SPX $SPY has pierced the upper BB. Historically this doesn't last too long until we get a major retracement back to mid BB which is a long way from here. Weekly also above the upper BB - last 2x saw decent retracements as well...
#StockMarket Net New High list w/ a Demark 13 seq sell last wk and turned down aggressively....
#stockmarket #SPX stocks above the 200 day are now back to levels where meaningful retracements have occurred since 2016. Overlay demark & see 2/3 last peaks had sell signals. Currently there is a Seq 13 sell w/ combo 13 sell likely this wk....
#stockmarket #SPX weekly put/call showing extreme complacency w/ Demark seq 13 buy at the low. turning up here could really spook the equity mkts....
#stockmarket #SPX AD/Decline making news highs is always bullish but now a new Demark combo & Seq 13 sell on the weekly - last time we saw a combo 13 sell was Feb '20 - turning down here would be bearish equities...
#StockMarket $HYG also w/ a new combo 13 sell on the daily chart last wk. Last time this signal printed was in Jan '20. Perceived credit stress always negative for equities so continuing lower here is bearish equities....
#stockmarket consumer discretionary vs staples ( $XLY vs $XLP) turned down last wk after posting a Demark seq 13 sell. Now into red support band - continuing lower would indicate risk off & bearish equities....
#stockmarket equal weight #SPX ($SPW) finally broke through the resistance band w/ a seemingly successful backtest. If sticks this could be signaling a leadership regime change away from tech...
#stockmarket Valueline Index finally breaking through resistance is also signaling regime change, but now w/ a new Demark Combo 13 sell and 9 sell set up....
#stockmarket concl: "Tremendous" confluence here w/ many of my indicators suggesting to back off equities. While we can certainly melt up from here like most strategists are suggesting, I think risk is high of the opposite. I remain heavy cash & continuing to hedge on strength.

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More from @coiledspringcap

9 Nov
#stockmarket WE update. My call last WE to buy in the 2H of the wk missed by 2 days. +7% wk & futures up again seems to be getting overheated. Clearly we have a break up of this DTL on #SPX futures, & now on Day 5 of 9 Demark sell set up. Trendfactor up lvls: 1x=3583, 1.5x=3673..
#stockmarket #SPX $SPY also will post Day 5 of 9 sell set up, which would come on Friday if the count is satisfied. Demark Trrendfactor up lvls to be mindful of: 1x up = 354.90, 1.5x=358.47
#stockmarket I posted this chart of the Smart Money Index last wk, as a reason to be concerned as it signaled the Oct peak. Still hovering near the lows but cluster of Demark 13 buys w/ 9 buy set up as well. Hopefully this turns up soon....
Read 14 tweets
6 Nov
$YALA getting tight. Image
$YALA whoa!
Image
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
#stockmarket WE Update. Wild week as expected & I expect more fireworks, but are we close to a bottom? #SPX futures bouncing around the 1.5x Demark trendfactor lvl of 3249 (was 3250 when I started this work). day 6 of Demark buy set up....
#stockmarket $SPY also bouncing around the 1.5x TF level of 324 & closed above. I said on Friday that I thought we were at a level where the mkt might bounce & it did. Day 5 of Demark buy set up. We are also into the green zone where there is price memory.....
#stockmarket $QQQ also on count 5 of Demark buy set up & bounced near the 2x TF level around $265. QQQ also approaching the red box where price memory exists....
Read 17 tweets
26 Oct
#stockmarket WE update. As I've been discussing for wks, the mkt would remain choppy into the election & it has. resolution feels closer but not there yet. Friday was constructive but still some issues ST. $SPY now bumping up against the Asc Triangle & back above key MA's...
#stockmarket #Nasdaq is similar & held an important level. threatening to break the Asc Triangle formation and also above key MA's...
#stockmarket fly in the ointment for tech and the #NASDAQ is that a weekly Demark 13 did print last week to go with the $NDQ 13 sell last wk. not much on the daily. keep in mind these signals can be good for 12 weeks so doesn't mean we will turn down immediately but we can.....
Read 15 tweets
18 Oct
#StockMarket WE update: recent Demark 13 sell I posted this wk marked the swing high & choppiness ensued. Fri was ugly but could be opex related so for now just expecting more of the same unless stimulus resolution breaks us out or down. set up seems bullish but needs to confirm
#stockmarket Demark Trendfactor lvls continue to be a good guide. 13 sell peaked @ 1x up lvl, & found support on 1/2 lvl down. see white boxes for up lvls & blue for down lvls in chart above. daily #SPX chart below also showing a close right @ 5 day EMA on Fri....
#stockmarket #SPX $SPY weekly chart ended w/ a doji candle which shows indecision, & intuitively makes sense given the impasse over stimulus. To me this chart is intermediate term bullish - Large C&H w/ resistance at the B/O point. could it break down from here? sure...
Read 20 tweets
11 Oct
#stockmarket WE update. Sometimes when everything seems to be working, breaking out, acting as it should or we hope, IMO, means things are getting too easy. My gut says we are there & time to retrench a bit. Last wk pump job screwed the bears but could mean now we fall harder....
#Stockmarket hard to know how this shakes out but as you can see in this thread, my indicators are flashing yellow. $INDU currently w/ first Demark Seq 13 sell last wk since the low & new aggressive seq 13 w/ so sto overbot. also hitting wkly resistance. but Prop up tgt =29526...
#stockmarket #SPX also w/ a Demark Seq 13 sell looming if trade +3509. Slot sto also overbot. upside & downside Trend factor lvls in white boxes. 3rd D-wave tgt @ 2975. currently hitting 1.5x upside level....
Read 15 tweets

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