Thread by @pmdfoster

So. All the top #Brexit mandarins were out today answering Qs from @CommonsPAC and they were confident on Jan 1 borders, including predicting a "fourfold increase in capacity" for customs next year - per Alex Chisolm of Cab Office. Is that right? /1

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@CommonsPAC It would, on the face of it, appear to run contrary from a lot of the predictions from @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews and other trade groups about a shortage of customs intermediaries. The figure of needing 50,000 more has been around for a while - but not recognised by govt./2

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews So where is this "fourfold increase" in capacity prediction coming from?

To be clear, that's not same as saying 4x number of agents, but a 4x increase in "capacity" - so more computerisation, outsourcing etc - as Jim Harra of HMRC explained. /3

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews But even so, a 4x increase in capacity is a LOT, though in truth how you measure that capacity when a lot of customs work is in-house, one-man bands etc is interesting. Well one way is to ask industry...which is what HMRC did via Ipsos-MORI, per my sources.

So.../4

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews The number seems to be drawn from Para 2 of this: which says market anticipates doing 76m-119m declarations compared with current 29m-39m...ergo...there must be a "fourfold" increase in capacity. Well maybe.../5

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews But that is a helluva lot of weight to put on a Mori survey from June-Sept.

I had been wondering why Cabinet Office kept referring to new found "confidence" it would have sufficient capacity, but this seems to be the basis. /6

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews The truth is, everyone is extrapolating, but we do know that a) customs intermediary salaries are rising b) poaching is rampant and that that market is very tight. (see my report here) /7

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@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews But it is also true that that number in the Mori survey is far below the HMRC estimate of 270m declaration/year from 2021, compared with 55m at present...which could suggest that... /8

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews As Jim Harra of HMRC says, that 270m might be over-estimate and that costs & hassle of trading with EU forces trade patterns to change (so companies group/bulk consignments) reducing numbers of declarations/agents needed. /9

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews But anecdotally industry doesn't sound confident it has capacity as things stand....only today I spoke to a customs software provider who had a client in Birmingham who had just been told by existing agent that they couldn't handle their volumes. You hear a lot of such tales. /10

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews But as @hilarybennmp said to the committee, we are going to find out sooner or later who is guessing correctly - whether supply can meet demand when suppressed by red tape of new EU-UK trading arrangements. /11

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews @hilarybennmp How fast companies learn to create datasets that work; how much 'in house' operations absorb capacity....

So for example Elizabeth de Jong the policy director @LogisticsUKNews says that members who are intermediaries are v worried...but traders much less so.../12

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews @hilarybennmp It is not clear why the discrepancy is there...but it may be to do with business preserving commercially sensitive information about their plans to compete in the sector. /13

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews @hilarybennmp Still, if this Mori survey is the basis for the "fourfold capacity" increase claim - it's pretty back of a fag packet one. Surveys of #Brexit preparedness vary a lot depend on how/to whom you ask the questions. /14

@CommonsPAC @RHARichardB @LogisticsUKNews @hilarybennmp The good news, however, is that over in the Lords, we were told that if the feared queues do materialise a "reactive protocol" is in place to deploy portable toilets onto the roadside. ENDS

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