28/ Bluntly: You either get a Cold War with China or you get Climate action. You can't get both.

John Kerry has his work cut out. Briefs on greening US-China relations @njtmulder @DebSeligsohn @kellysgallagher #GeopoliticsOfGHGs quincyinst.org/symposium/gree…
29/ China's oil company CNOOC on Pentagon blacklist for its offshore exploration in South China Sea & US desire to counter mil-industrial complex. US investors hold ~15% of shares given year to divest. Its global partners inc Exxon/Total #GeopoliticsOfGHGs defense.gov/Newsroom/Relea…
30/ 190 of 197 nations ratified 2015 Paris Agreement. Wall Street & China want to limit warming. Yes, there is powerful opposition,& escapist elites but is Climate politics Existential?
@adam_tooze on squaring the circle & #GeopoliticsOfGHGs of past 30yrs e-flux.com/journal/114/36… Image
31/ “In an increasingly black-and-white world where liberal democracies face an existential challenge from authoritarians and populists, Merkel still sees gray...In her view, attempts to isolate & contain China can only lead to disaster” #GeopoliticsOfGHGs foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/31/wha…
32/John Kerry wants to make Climate cooperation the priority of US-China policy. Hawks in DC want to make containment the priority. We wrote about MAD dilemma & argument for a modus vivendi here @policytensor policytensor.com/2019/05/23/fea… brookings.edu/blog/order-fro… Image
33/ Enthusiasm on #energytwitter for Biden's Climate personnel & ambitious policies is understandably sky high after 4 dismal years. Those who pay attention to foreign policy can see huge obstacles ahead. Excellent piece by @KateAronoff #GeopoliticsOfGHGs newrepublic.com/article/160992…
34/ Polling shows Americans want Biden to work w Beijing on climate emergency
"imagine...a global climate race—one where US & China compete on some fronts,like the financing of clean energy overseas,& collaborate on others,like assmnt of [Climate]risks"
foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/04/uni…
"Climate Hawks need not be China doves" sais-isep.org/wp-content/upl…
Starting point #GeopoliticsOfGHGs:
'most important things both US & China can do on #climatechange take place largely within their own borders,& are driven primarily by domestic politics'
36/ With Biden's "Strategic supply chain Review" EO, DC abuzz about industrial policy & China decoupling.

Its Climate vs China Hawks & Protectionists vs Free Traders. Of interest @triofrancos @thoatley @bentleyballan @AlexCKaufman #GeopoliticsOfGHGs csis.org/analysis/indus…
37/ "Structural shift in demand for semiconductors moves focus of global geopolitics & finance from Persian Gulf to S China Sea"
"Like OPEC was for oil, Taiwan & Korea are near-monopoly producers of chips" @yayitsrob @policytensor
blogs.tslombard.com/geopolitical-s… Image

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More from @70sBachchan

13 Jan
There's a 1970s style energy crisis playing out in Japan, Korea & China with hardly any attention from rest of the world. Gas & coal supply shortages, spikes in demand from harsh winter & rationing...but there are deeper roots. @JKempEnergy sets out analytical framework.
2/ Mindblowing that one reason energy use & prices are spiking in E Asia is Covid Ventilation. Offices, homes etc opening windows to prevent buildup of virus aerosols while also blasting heat during freezing winter. Thread on crisis japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/2…
3/ My kingdom for an LNG tanker. An unprecedented shortage of liquefied natural gas tankers has made them the most expensive ships ever hired to ferry commodities. Excellent reporting on E Asian energy crisis by @SStapczynski @a_shiryaevskaya bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Read 17 tweets
25 Dec 20
Between the pandemic & california mega fires & american dysfunction 2020 has been Mike Davis' cassandraesque year. But every time you think he's hit Peak Bleak, turns out he's still climbing... substack.sashafrerejones.com/p/friday-decem…
thankfully mike davis was completely wrong about the uneven burden of Covid. It hit poor countries of the subcontinent & africa much less than richer europe & americas.
Terrible as covid-19 is, a reminder that it could have been deadlier. Spanish flu killed the young more than the old. 60% of global mortality, some 20 million of 1918-19's toll was in India. Industrial Agriculture & inequality as Mike Davis warns will eventually produce a monster
Read 6 tweets
13 Nov 20
The definition of ideology is that it is immune to empirical refutation. Facts literally bounce off it.
2/ Scientists who have to pay attention to how reality works & not ideological words are devastatingly clear as to which governments least followed science in dealing with COVID-19.
economist.com/graphic-detail… Image
3/ Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, or find prettier ways to talk about it, or ignore it, doesn't go away. The 21stC is the Age of Consequences — of reality biting back, and we must learn to bend to its will. #viraltime #climatechange
Read 16 tweets
7 Nov 20
Back in March, ppl understood that its not current #'s but future trajectory that matters. Last month, infections in US & Europe rose so rapidly that daily deaths projected to double by Nov end. Action is required now, not in another 11 weeks with a new president. ht @ExanteData Image
Better treatment but w 'epidemic momentum' deaths will go past 2000 in wks.
"I expect the US to be reporting over 2000 deaths/day in 3 weeks time. Importantly, this doesn't assume any further increases in circulation & is essentially "baked into" currently reported cases"-@trvrb Image
China in January was in much the same situation as US T'giving. A larger migration of 400 million ppl that would have been a catastrophic superspreading event. But public health prevailed on politicians. Excellent comparative thread by an epidemiologist ⬇️
Read 15 tweets
30 Sep 20
Neither the first case on West Coast or Germany in mid-January snowballed. It was chain of transmission from China to Italy to NYC in early Feb that sparked transatlantic explosion.

Francis Collins on latest research integrating phylogenetics & travel directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/09/22/how…
1st mea culpa of WHO's line that precautionary travel restrictions are ineffective @adam_tooze. Tellingly, comes about in "wealth before health" lawsuit in Austrian ski resort.
nytimes.com/2020/09/30/wor…
E Asian govts did restrictions/screening passngrs/hotel quarantine in realtime Image
WHO anti-travel restrictions line was classic science & politics contest. This is @HelenBranswell Jan 26th report after vote to declare intl emergency went 50-50.
"Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus" statnews.com/2020/01/26/con… Image
Read 13 tweets
24 Sep 20
"Get rid of the ballots & you'll have a very peaceful - There won't be a transfer, frankly. There'll be a continuation"
Trump refuses a peaceful transfer of power if he loses in November
news.yahoo.com/trump-campaign…

Getting clear that Military will be required defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/…
At the moment of constitutional crisis on Jan 20th, 2021, will US military escort the former president from the White House or do nothing & watch Black Lives Matter plaza become Tahrir Square?

Open letter to Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Milley defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/… Image
3/ US will need a pacted transition to incentivize Trump leaving, w minimum violence. Republican & Dem elites will have to remove his fear of prosecution for manifest crimes. People protesting on streets cannot credibly commit to amnesty. ht @TomPepinsky
tompepinsky.com/2020/07/27/the…
Read 4 tweets

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