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27 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Now that JHU has censored its own scientists, I'm attaching here the cached report it published earlier. Shame on the political class that censors the scientists. The leftists and the #MSM are the #EnemyOfThePeople
Contd. Here's the end of the article. We need to fight against this mad censorship.
Here is the info on the author of this study at JHU. She is a PhD and on the faculty of the Univ. and holds the position of the Assistant Director and Senior Lecturer.
For more clear graphics, I zoomed in on the pics. Attached here. Unfortunately, the graphics are no longer interactive as only the cached version is available now.

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au ng Profile picture
26 Oct
#FL #EarlyVoting This poll was conducted 10/20 to 10/23. Conservatively I will use 10/23 data and assume that 5.2m votes have been cast and 4.8m still to go. Let’s be generous and give Biden 52-48 for NPAs. Let’s assume equal crossovers. ---
2/ That gives ~470k Biden lead with those already voted. Out of 4.8m remaining, using this poll’s data, Trump will lead by 912k votes. Adding these together, Trump will win by about 442k votes, or about 4.5 percentage points. ----
3/ Again, this is based on very conservative assumptions. Trump should win FL comfortably. Winner of FL has won each of the last six elections. #MAGA2020
Read 4 tweets
au ng Profile picture
20 Oct
1/ #FL #EarlyVoting Explanation on why Dems Need such a Large Lead going into Election Day:

So many people were wondering why Dems need 653k to 900k lead going into 11/3/20. The main reason: 800k+ more Dems than Rs have asked for VBM ballots this year versus ----
2/ about equal numbers (D = R) in 2016. Other reasons: Voter registration numbers have shifted from about 330k D+ in 2016 to half that much lead in 2020. There, 100k+ more votes shifting from D to R. ---
3/ In 2016, D lead on election eve was 88k translating to 113k Trump win. People assume that the differential was about 200k (88k+113k). They wrongly assume that if on 11/2/20, Ds are leading by 200k, it would be a toss up and if Ds lead by more than 200k, Biden wins. ---
Read 5 tweets
au ng Profile picture
20 Oct
#FL #EarlyVoting update: Dem lead increase after the first day of in person EV is 8.5k (combined VBM + in person). Dem lead is now projected to be well below the red line threshold of 653k. I suspect it might take a downward trend by this weekend. Rs will crush on ED. #MAGA
Here is the updated graph:
Here's the explanation for the purple line.

Read 4 tweets
au ng Profile picture
19 Oct
#NC #EarlyVoting by "Freeper" bort: Posted on 10/18/2020, 6:09:44 AM by bort

Here are the takeaways from this morning's early voting report from the NC State Board of Elections:

1) Republicans cut about 1.5 points from the Democrats lead in VBM/early in-person voting.
2/ 2) Votes cast: 665K/355K/408K (D/R/U registered voters)

3) Democrats have cast 310,000 more votes than Rs, but..

4) In 2016, Democrats cast--get this--exactly 310,000 more votes than Republicans in the entire early voting period, i.e., the exact same spread as today.
3/ In 2016, at the close of EV, Dems led Rs 1.3 million to 1 million VBM/EV cast.

5) Republicans have won 3 straight days of early voting so far, and are the odds-on favorite to win most (if not all) of the remaining in-person EV days, as Dem-heavy mail-in ballots ---
Read 6 tweets
au ng Profile picture
11 Oct
#FL #VoteByMail In-Depth Case Study: Sumter County

Earlier today, @Redistrict suggested Sumter County (The Villages) would be a good place to monitor on the election night. I agree and I looked into the county level data to assess the VBM situaion. ----
2/ Doing so eliminates the artifact due to discrepancy of different counties mailing out ballots at different times.

I then looked up the VBM data from the primary election this year. What I found was fascinating. Only 24% of Rs have returned VBM ballots ----
3/ while 40% of Dems have done so. Compare that to 75% of Rs retuned VBM ballots during the primary vs 62% for Dems. This tells us that Rs are not just receiving the VBM ballots late (like in some counties). ----
Read 5 tweets
au ng Profile picture
10 Oct
1/ Another great insight by "bort" from freerepublic.com on the #VoteByMail and #EarlyVoting

Early voting surges...but not among black voters.
October 10, 2020 | Vanity
Posted on 10/10/2020, 6:59:05 AM by bort

Below is a list of states that have accumulated ----
2/ substantial mail-in/early votes followed by the percentage share of votes cast by blacks in each state. In other words, of all the early votes that have been returned by mail or cast in person up until yesterday, ----
3/ these are percentages that were cast by black voters in each state:

Florida: 11% (Obama 2012: 14% of electorate)

Indiana: 5% (state AA population: 11%)

Maryland: 22% (state AA population: 33%)

Michigan: 8% (state AA population: 15%)

Neb(CD-2):4% (CD AA population: 10%)

-
Read 13 tweets

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