Anglo Pacific #APF is a commodity royalty company, dividend is about 7% but it doesn't look too sustainable or real.

Ultimately royalty companies are easy: receive dividends, buy more royalties and pay cash to shareholders. All works out until 2014-15 and since then, not so much Image
The way the whole thing has been sustained since, has been by debt and printing shares. This isn't to say this won't work without a turn in commodities - it will, although there's debt here that wasn't before - otherwise the divi gets cut or shareholders will print it themselves. Image
In number form in case the my-first-crayon palette is just too much to take. Image

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More from @hareng_rouge

15 Jan
Some notes on TFF Pharmaceuticals $TFFP from the HC Wainwright call

20 mins long, link to call below

sessions.ct.events/tplayer.aspx?s…
This previous thread about TFF was conjecture and I think the Wainwright call gave some grounds to think it may not totally off the mark.

This is again the idea: Pfizer wants to get a powder version of the Covid vaccine in order to avoid the cold-chain issues and expenses associated with the first-gen vaccine Image
Read 8 tweets
13 Jan
Summer 20: investment co with a one holding - a REIT - gets rid of its directors after the REIT collapsed into a zombie.

Sep 20: new management, new investment: a software company with 23% pre-tax margins

Nov 20: 60% growth, big client wins

Implied valuation today <5x sales Image
There are no other numbers, this is everything there is.

The holdco is called Drumz #DRUM a £2.4M cap
The zombie is a listed REIT called KCR
The software company is called Acuity Risk Management

I have it at an implied trailing sales of ~4.9x ex £500K holdco cash and ex zombie Image
Acuity's product is called STREAM, here's how they describe it:

STREAM is a cyber security and risk management software used by organizations globally for ISO 27001, GDPR, NIST and many other standards

In short, its not a nice-to-have for big companies

dataprotectionmagazine.com/?p=136
Read 18 tweets
11 Jan
TLDR: headlines like the below may be masking something interesting at ReNeuron - a medical platform business

As #MXCT and $CLPT show, these sell high

Direct NASDAQ comp valued 5x higher

#RENE platform has an imminent catalyst, which may be derisked.

proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news…
Disclaimers as follows:

- I am far, far out of my lane looking at this
- The comp lives in a bubble market
- This is 100% based on crude pattern recognition
- Market appears to value #RENE for other aspects, so
- This may not work even if the idea proves correct
So, #RENE may have what may be one of the Next Big Things: a platform for the cutting edge of genetic medicine - the comp lives off that alone.

In English, they use "exosomes" to try to get mRNA and CRISPR molecules past the blood-brain barrier into the brain. See below Image
Read 21 tweets
7 Jan
Tiny, UK AIM co in specialty chemicals: specifically "sustainable polymers"

At best this usually means 1 client and a test batch; at worst, magic beans

But Itaconix #ITX is neither and it's rather mispriced: it sells at margins that rival the best in the world - and in size
It may actually be very mispriced; estimates are clearly too low. All in part because it's off the radar.

It's another find by @dopamine_uptake who pointed it out to me after reading on IP Group - some holdings of theirs caught his eye and of them, this one really caught mine.
I'll get straight to it. HY20 end October.

We see revenues up +80% on the previous year's half and they're not far off equaling the whole of 2019's revenues.

Gross margin: 37% - this rings a loud bell

Loss making. Image
Read 26 tweets
5 Jan
Now a £35M cap, a fortnight on

It's one of those small UK if-it-were-listed-in-the-US companies. Bidstack #BIDS and it puts advertising into major online games

It's rocketing - and there are some grounds to think that in quite short order it may be about to turn into a firework
"May" and also:

- history of over promising and disappointing
- very much a AIM small cap
- burns cash
- will place and dilute
- has share price on homepage
- Glassdoor is not great
- emoji issues when discussed
*But* it may now be delivering for real. If so it may also be extremely cheap. How cheap?

20H1 was 2x sequentially and 10x YoY

It may be about to report H1-H2 sequential growth of 5x.

If so, FY20: 10x YoY.

Fwd 21 rev multiple? Perhaps half that number, perhaps even less.
Read 25 tweets
2 Jan
Iceberg might have a point here

$WW is Weight Watchers
Don't worry, not going on a bender with filings

T9M figures last 4 years. Yes it's a bit stagnant in the numbers and costs up / profit down a little etc but the COGs numbers are roughly consistent. You could imagine a jump in revenues flowing through quite well.

2018 was Oprah
Fair to guess lots of New Year gym sign-ups are postponed or never happen and more NY lose weight / get fit resolutions than usual find their way here instead?

Cashflow behaves roughly the same. More SBC, bit more capex.
Read 5 tweets

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