Rob Pyers Profile picture
8 Dec, 13 tweets, 17 min read
Now that Kern and Ventura Counties have posted their full results, some quick takeaways from California's House races.
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%

Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%

CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%

CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
Interestingly, the conservative Ventura County portion of #CA25, which houses the Reagan Library, voted 49.4% /44.44% for Trump over Clinton in 2016, but narrowly went 48.93%/48.86% to Biden by 51 votes this year, while Mike Garcia carried it 54.23%/45.77%.
Clinton 55.24%
Trump 39.67%

Biden 54.37%
Trump 43.5%

CNG '18
Cox 50.38%
Valadao 49.62%

CNG '20
Valadao 50.45%
Cox 49.55%
CA Trump Districts:
#CA23 57.10% (McCarthy)
#CA01 56.38% (LaMalfa)
#CA08 54.02% (Obernolte)
#CA04 53.72% (McClintock)
#CA42 52.72% (Calvert)
#CA50 52.69% (Issa)
#CA22 51.64% (Nunes)
Best CA Biden Districts by %:
#CA13 88.91% (Lee)
#CA12 86.07% (Pelosi)
#CA36 84.33% (Bass)
#CA34 80.80% (Gomez)
#CA44 78.42% (Barragan)
#CA14 77.65% (Speier)
#CA40 77.09% (Roybal-Allard)
#CA43 76.93% (Waters)
#CA18 76.35% (Eshoo)
Best CA House R vs Trump
#CA43 Collins +7.39%
#CA21 Valadao +6.95%
#CA39 Kim +6.65%
#CA40 Delgado +6.65
#CA25 Garcia +6.2%
#CA23 McCarthy +5.04%
#CA24 Caldwell +4.56%
#CA42 Calvert +4.41%
#CA49 Maryott +4.37%
#CA52 DeBello +4.23%
Worst CA House R vs Trump
#CA36 Cruz -2.65%
#CA10 Howze -2.59%
#CA46 Waters -2.25%
#CA35 Cargile -1.97%
#CA20 Gorman -1.81%
#CA05 Giblin -1.35%
#CA27 Nalbandian -0.62%
Best CA House D vs Biden
#CA10 Harder +4.86%
#CA46 Correa +4.45%
#CA36 Ruiz +4.44%
#CA35 Torres +4.2%
#CA20 Panetta +4.08%
#CA05 Thompson +3.66%
#CA06 Matsui +3.1%
Worst CA House D vs Biden
#CA43 Waters -5.25%
#CA21 Cox -4.82%
#CA39 Cisneros -4.69%
#CA40 Roybal-Allard -4.35%
#CA25 Smith -4%
#CA23 Mangone -2.62%
#CA49 Levin -2.09%
#CA24 Carbajal -1.87%
#CA52 Peters -1.79%
#CA33 Lieu -1.44%
Biggest Net CA Swings -> Trump ('16 vs '20)
#CA51 Vargas D+49.06 / D+36.03
#CA40 Roybal-Allard D+69.45 / D+56.48
#CA44 Barragan D+70.77 / D+59.24
#CA29 Cardenas D+60.94 / D+50.43
#CA19 Lofgren D+51.43 / D+42.08
#CA34 Gomez D+72.84 / D+63.9
#CA35 Torres D+40.79 / D+32.49
Biggest Net CA Swings -> Biden ('16 vs '20)
#CA50 (Issa) R+15.01 / R+7.71
#CA52 (Peters) D+22.56 / D+29.18
#CA45 (Porter) D+5.45 / D+11.3
#CA23 (McCarthy) R+22.06 / R+16.62
#CA49 (Levin) D+7.48 / D+12.72
#CA04 (McClintock) R+14.76 / R+9.85
#CA36 (Ruiz) D+8.74 / D+13.62
(And some proposition results from the four seats the GOP clawed back in the 2020 cycle)

Prop 15 NO (Split Roll Tax Increase)
#CA21 57.38%
#CA25 60.11%
#CA39 60.88%
#CA48 63.89%

Prop 22 YES (Gig Worker Classification)
#CA21 62.34%
#CA25 64.05%
#CA39 64.83%
#CA48 67.99%

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More from @rpyers

4 Dec
Four Republicans running in safe blue districts persuaded GOP donors to part with a combined $41.9 million in the 2020 cycle

District/Cand/Vote Share/$ Raised

#CA43 Collins 28.3% ($10.33M)
#MD07 Klacik 28.4% ($8.29M)
#NY14 Cummings 27.4% ($11.15M)
#MN05 Johnson 25.9% ($12.16M)
Collins' campaign racked up $68,000 in Delta Flights, $30,000 in Uber & Lyft rides, spent tens of thousands at an assortment of luxury hotels and restaurants across the country, and funneled hundreds of thousands in consulting fees to LLCs of questionable provenance.
Cummings' campaign against AOC in #NY14 seems to have existed primarily to ensure direct mail vendors maintained a steady supply of boats and vacation homes...
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec
😂Lincoln Project got Democrat donors to part with $15,226,496 in the pre-election period ($81.9M to date!), with the ostensibly Republican group getting $550,000 from Chuck Schumer's Senate Majority PAC and $650,000 from dark money Democratic group Majority Forward.
After siphoning off $81.9M from Democratic donors this cycle with little to show for it, Lincoln Project's founder signals plan to continue to milk their audience for all they're worth for as long as humanly possible and files FEC paperwork for 'Lincoln24'
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
The Lincoln Project convinced Democratic donors to part with $39,384,397 in Q3. It burned a staggering $13 million on operating expenditures, made $23.9M of IEs (mostly routed into its founders firms), and ended with $13.2M on hand.
Among @ProjectLincoln's Q3 donors, $300,000 from liberal dark money group Sixteen Thirty Fund
Catering to #Resist donors has been a lucrative reversal of fortune for the Lincoln Project's founders. Reed Galen's Summit Strategic was paid $18.8M in Q3, Ron Steslow's TUSK Digital got $8.7M, Kurt Bardella's Endeavor Strategy got $153K
Read 8 tweets
14 Oct
Mitch McConnell's @Senate_Fund dropping over $22.5M in eight races tonight:
138,632->#KSSen… ImageImageImageImage
Independent expenditures in the North Carolina Senate race are about to hit $150 million Image
Rough approximation of the total Senate IE spending over the entire 2020 cycle so far:

$146M - North Carolina
$107M - Iowa
$76M - Georgia (Both races)
$74M - Montana
$70M - Maine
$58M - Arizona
$54M - Michigan
$31M - Colorado
$30M - Kansas
$19M - South Carolina
$15M - Alaska
Read 6 tweets
15 Jul
#NeverTrump @ProjectLincoln raised $16.8M in Q2, drawing several six and seven figure checks from a handful of Democratic megadonors, spent $4.6M on independent expenditures, $2.28M on operating expenditures, and ended the quarter with $10.8M on hand.
Improving from Q1 when Lincoln Project faced accusations of being a ScamPAC on account of 90% of their expenditures being paid out to Lincoln Project members and their firms, only ~86% of its operating expenditures/IEs went through Lincoln Project members and their firms in Q2.
That's not to say they pocketed it all...the FCC's political file database indicates at least $3M in ad buys were made and $1.36M in Facebook ads were purchased as of June 30th.
Read 4 tweets
15 May
Friday's dump of 25,980 more #CA25 ballots from L.A. County is the first update to net votes for Christy Smith, splittng 51.5%/48.5% for Smith and bringing Mike Garcia's margin down by 790 votes to 16,860.
Another 350 #CA25 votes were also added from Ventura County, splitting 50.9%/49.1% for Smith, cutting Garcia's margin down another six votes to 16,854.
Wild. Turnout in the #CA25 special election runoff is now at 40.78% with 173,322 votes in, surpassing the total from the #CA25 primary (which coincided with a competitive Democratic presidential primary).
Read 5 tweets

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