Thread by @MoriartyLab

Starting thread about how many #Canadians will likely die of #COVID19 in next 3 wks

1. last day Hanukkah (Dec 18)
2. Christmas eve (Dec 24)
3. New Year's eve (Dec 31)

This is so those travelling, socializing indoors in next 3 wks remember the dying during celebrations of hope.

As of Tues Dec 8, #COVID19 deaths across #Canada were increasing 17%/wk.

BUT death rates are accelerating 11%/wk in last month, so this wk they'll increase 19%, next wk 21%, wk after 23%.

Let's do the math to translate into how many people will likely die on Dec 18, 24, 31.

Gah! I forgot to add image. Look at the red line on the graph on the right (Canada).

That shows how fast death rate is changing over time.

A flat line is steady increase by the same number of deaths/day. Upward slope is acceleration (speeding up).

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1336491369712521217?s=20

Something that's important to note about that red line. It is incredibly regular, with almost no fluctuation. This is an inexorable rise, and anything we do from now till Dec 31 will only change the rate in January. We're locked in.

OK, so, by tmw Dec 11 we'll likely be at 138 #COVID19 deaths/day nationally.

On last day of Hanukkah (Dec 18), 167 ppl will likely die (21% increase).

On Christmas day (Dec 25), 205 people will likely die (+23%).

On New Year's day (Jan 1), 258 people will likely die (+26%).

Now let's do the wkly numbers.

During Hanukkah wk (end Dec 18), ~1,169 #Canadians will likely die of #COVID19.

In wk ending on Christmas, ~1,435 Cdns will likely die of C19.

In wk ending on New Year's Day, ~1,806 Cdns will likely die of C19.

Big picture take home

Based on current numbers & rates of increase, from now till New Year's Day:

📢nearly 4,700 #Canadians will die of #COVID19
📢our C19 death total since Feb will be nearly 18,000

See top 10 mortality events in Canadian history:

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1336486660050194434?s=20

Now let's do deaths in long-term/personal care & retirement homes.

They've inexorably remained at 78% of all deaths pretty much since the beginning of the #COVID19 epidemic in #Canada.

See @NoLore & dashboard from her & @socialvizcanada here:

public.tableau.com/profile/andrew…

From now till New Year's day, more than 3,500 #Canadians in LTC/RHs will likely die of #COVID19.

By New Year's Day, nearly 14,000 Cdns in LTC/RHs will have died of COVID-19 since the start of the epidemic.

I hope, with every fibre of my being, that on January 1st someone will remind me of this thread and tell me that I was wrong.

I am praying I will be wrong (in my non-praying kind of way).

I am praying that my mom in a care home won't be one of those 14,000 dead.

/fin