One last post for night about number of NEW #COVID19 deaths that will occur in #Canada between today Jan 1 if we don't slow spread NOW.

This is back of the envelope math. Most deaths by Jan 1 will occur from cases contracted before today. What we do now will change deaths in Jan
1. In last 7 days, #COVID19 deaths grew by 21%.

2. 746 #Canadians died of C19 in the last 7 days.

3. If deaths grow by 21% next wk, by the last night of Hanukkah, there will be 746 x 1.21= 903 new deaths

cont...
4. If deaths grow 21% Dec 19-25, by Christmas Day there will be 903 x 1.21=1092 new deaths.

5. If deaths grow 21% Dec 26-Jan 1, by New Year's Day there will be 1092 x 1.21=1322 new deaths.

TOTAL NEW #Canadian #COVID19 deaths fr Dec 12-Jan 1:
903 + 1092 + 1322 = 3317

#StayHome
BTW as of today 4,218 #Canadians have died of #COVID19 in Wave 2 (starting Aug 18).

If we have 3317 new deaths from Dec 12-Jan 1, it will nearly double the total deaths in Wave 2. In just 3 weeks.

If deaths grow faster than 21%/wk, we'll hit that number sooner.

#StayHome

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More from @MoriartyLab

12 Dec
Dec 11

Tonight's thread on #Canadian #COVID19 deaths, & long-term/personal care/retirement homes

We will have 1000s of deaths before New Year's. Vaccines will take months to protect most at-risk.

Please protect your fellow #Canadians.

If you can, #StayHome
Dec 11

1 of every 34 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 71 in BC
1 in 112 in AB
1 in 153 in SK
1 in 44 in MB
1 in 36 in ON
1 in 22 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns with C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 3,107 new LTC cases in last 7d
Dec 11

#Canadians

#COVID19 is in top 5 largest mortality events in Canadian history.

The only larger death tolls: World Wars I & II, 1918-1920 flu & AIDS

This week 746 Cdns died of C19. 1000s more will die before New Year's.

Please prevent more deaths by staying home.
Read 35 tweets
10 Dec
Starting thread about how many #Canadians will likely die of #COVID19 in next 3 wks

1. last day Hanukkah (Dec 18)
2. Christmas eve (Dec 24)
3. New Year's eve (Dec 31)

This is so those travelling, socializing indoors in next 3 wks remember the dying during celebrations of hope.
As of Tues Dec 8, #COVID19 deaths across #Canada were increasing 17%/wk.

BUT death rates are accelerating 11%/wk in last month, so this wk they'll increase 19%, next wk 21%, wk after 23%.

Let's do the math to translate into how many people will likely die on Dec 18, 24, 31.
Gah! I forgot to add image. Look at the red line on the graph on the right (Canada).

That shows how fast death rate is changing over time.

A flat line is steady increase by the same number of deaths/day. Upward slope is acceleration (speeding up).

Read 10 tweets
9 Dec
Dec 8

1 of every 34 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 71 in BC
1 in 113 in AB
1 in 161 in SK
1 in 53 in MB
1 in 35 in ON
1 in 21 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ COVID-19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 3,225 new LTC cases in last 7d Image
Image
Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Case fatality rates since start of epidemic Image
Read 32 tweets
8 Dec
#Canadians

In the last 7 days, there were 3,225 new #COVID19 cases in long-term/personal care & retirement homes.

995: ON
913: QC
567: AB
390: BC
334: MB
26: SK
0: Atlantic

1 of 4 Cdns w/ C19 in LTC/RH has died to date. We can expect 806 LTC deaths from this wk's cases alone.
Here's what the per capita case numbers look like for all provinces. Atlantic is all Atlantic provinces. North is YK, NWT, Nunavut. Wave 2 is since Aug 17.

AB now has more per cap LTC/RH cases than ON, which takes some doing. QC & MB....horrific. Image
Read 8 tweets
1 Dec
Nov 30 update

Since March, 1 of every 31 #Canadians diagnosed with #COVID19 has died.

1 in 75 in BC
1 in 108 in AB
1 in 182 in SK
1 in 54 in MB
1 in 33 in ON
1 in 20 in QC

1 of every 4 Canadians with COVID-19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died.
Nov 30

#COVID19 cases, deaths, case fatality rates

#Canada, provinces w/ >200 cases/100K people
•Country peers (high income, pop >20M)
•Long-term & personal care, retirement homes
•Weekly changes, rates of change

Data: @covid_canada @NoLore @RyersonNIA @OurWorldInData
Nov 30

#Canada #COVID19 Case Fatality Rates

From start of epidemic
Read 17 tweets
23 Nov
Nov 22

Since March, 1 of every 29 #Canadians diagnosed with #COVID19 has died

This video from medical educator @arslaanjavaeed & colleagues shows how deeply important it is for every single one of us to protect each other right now.

Please, we beg you, if you can, STAY HOME
@IrfanDhalla @picardonhealth @Aaron_Derfel @SharkawyMD @ninan_abraham1 @RyersonNIA @AlexUsherHESA @katecallen @drandrewb @dementiarehab @LeylaDAsadi @MargaretAtwood

Would you consider amplifying this video trying to help Canadians understand the seriousness of #COVID19 ?
Read 8 tweets

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