One last post for night about number of NEW #COVID19 deaths that will occur in #Canada between today Jan 1 if we don't slow spread NOW.
This is back of the envelope math. Most deaths by Jan 1 will occur from cases contracted before today. What we do now will change deaths in Jan
This is back of the envelope math. Most deaths by Jan 1 will occur from cases contracted before today. What we do now will change deaths in Jan
https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1337563186418098177
1. In last 7 days, #COVID19 deaths grew by 21%.
2. 746 #Canadians died of C19 in the last 7 days.
3. If deaths grow by 21% next wk, by the last night of Hanukkah, there will be 746 x 1.21= 903 new deaths
cont...
2. 746 #Canadians died of C19 in the last 7 days.
3. If deaths grow by 21% next wk, by the last night of Hanukkah, there will be 746 x 1.21= 903 new deaths
cont...
4. If deaths grow 21% Dec 19-25, by Christmas Day there will be 903 x 1.21=1092 new deaths.
5. If deaths grow 21% Dec 26-Jan 1, by New Year's Day there will be 1092 x 1.21=1322 new deaths.
TOTAL NEW #Canadian #COVID19 deaths fr Dec 12-Jan 1:
903 + 1092 + 1322 = 3317
#StayHome
5. If deaths grow 21% Dec 26-Jan 1, by New Year's Day there will be 1092 x 1.21=1322 new deaths.
TOTAL NEW #Canadian #COVID19 deaths fr Dec 12-Jan 1:
903 + 1092 + 1322 = 3317
#StayHome
BTW as of today 4,218 #Canadians have died of #COVID19 in Wave 2 (starting Aug 18).
If we have 3317 new deaths from Dec 12-Jan 1, it will nearly double the total deaths in Wave 2. In just 3 weeks.
If deaths grow faster than 21%/wk, we'll hit that number sooner.
#StayHome
If we have 3317 new deaths from Dec 12-Jan 1, it will nearly double the total deaths in Wave 2. In just 3 weeks.
If deaths grow faster than 21%/wk, we'll hit that number sooner.
#StayHome
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