Dec 11

Tonight's thread on #Canadian #COVID19 deaths, & long-term/personal care/retirement homes

We will have 1000s of deaths before New Year's. Vaccines will take months to protect most at-risk.

Please protect your fellow #Canadians.

If you can, #StayHome
Dec 11

1 of every 34 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 71 in BC
1 in 112 in AB
1 in 153 in SK
1 in 44 in MB
1 in 36 in ON
1 in 22 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns with C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 3,107 new LTC cases in last 7d
Dec 11

#Canadians

#COVID19 is in top 5 largest mortality events in Canadian history.

The only larger death tolls: World Wars I & II, 1918-1920 flu & AIDS

This week 746 Cdns died of C19. 1000s more will die before New Year's.

Please prevent more deaths by staying home.
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 CASE FATALITY RATES since start of epidemic
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 CASE FATALITY RATES since start of epidemic

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes
Dec 11

1 of every 78 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died in Wave 2

1 in 95 in BC
1 in 140 in AB
1 in 187 in SK
1 in 43 in MB
1 in 87 in ON
1 in 56 in QC

1 of every 9 Cdns with C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

Last 7 days: 3,107 new LTC/RH cases
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 CASE FATALITY RATES

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 CASE FATALITY RATES

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)
Atlantic #Canada has done well so far in controlling #COVID19 cases & deaths.

The following tweets show other provinces how much worse we're doing.

Over the next few months we must aim for what Atlantic Canada has achieved, or many more of us will die.

It can be done.
Dec 11

Since Feb

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian who DIED of #COVID19
this many ppl died of #COVID19 in other regions:

28: QC
9: ON
11: MB
2: SK
5: AB
4: BC
<1: North (YK, NWT, NU)

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn who died of C19 in LTC/RHs, 11 died of C19 in LTC/RH in rest of #Canada
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 DEATHS since beginning of epidemic

Per capita deaths in MB are now higher than in ON, even though MB experienced very few deaths in Wave 1.

MB is second only to QC now, and deaths are accelerating very fast.

Manitobans #StayHome
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 DEATHS since beginning of epidemic

--Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

LTC/RH deaths are accelerating in ALL affected regions

Protect the lives of our elders. If you can, you MUST #StayHome
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19

% TOTAL DEATHS in long-term/personal care & retirement homes since beginning of epidemic

This is our national shame.

77% of C19 deaths in our country have occurred in LTC/RHs. This is twice the percentage in other high income OECD countries in Wave 1.
Dec 11

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian who DIED of #COVID19
this many ppl died of C19 in other regions:

61: QC
24: ON
101: MB
14: SK
32: AB
24: BC
2: North

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn who died of C19 in LTC/RH,
*101* died of C19 in LTC in rest of #Canada
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 DEATHS

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

Deaths everywhere except Atlantic Canada & the North are accelerating (speeding up).

Thousands more deaths will come between now & New Year's.

What we do NOW can reduce deaths in 2021.

We MUST #StayHome
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 DEATHS

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

These are accelerating everywhere except Atlantic Canada & the North. They're increasing faster & faster over time.

#Canadians this is tragic. We must slow this down. #StayHome
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 % TOTAL DEATHS in LTC/RHs

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

#Canadians, we were horrified by deaths in LTC in Wave 1. But in Wave 2 this % has only dropped from 78% to 75%. Nothing has changed.

This time we have no excuse. We let this happen. All of us.

#StayHome
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19

DAILY REMINDER of seriousness of our situation.

You'll understand even better when we get to cases.

1. We have now more hospitalized & critical care cases than at worst of Wave 1

2. We're running as few tests/positive case as at worst of Wave 1
Dec 11

Since Feb

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian diagnosed w/ #COVID19,
this many ppl were diagnosed in other regions:

19: QC
10: ON
15: MB
10: SK
18: AB
8: BC
3: North

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn diagnosed w/ C19 in LTC/RH
6 were diagnosed in LTC in rest of #Canada
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19

Since start of epidemic

CASES
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19

CASES in long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Since start of epidemic

Look at Atlantic Canada. This is where we could have been in other provinces if we had controlled case numbers.
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 % TOTAL CASES in LTC/RHs

Since start of epidemic
Dec 11

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian diagnosed w/ #COVID19, this many ppl were diagnosed in other regions:

34: QC
20: ON
42: MB
25: SK
43: AB
21: BC
7: North

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn diagnosed w/ C19 in LTC/RH,
9 were diagnosed in LTC in rest of #Canada
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 CASES

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

Case numbers are accelerating in ON, QC, SK & especially in AB. Accelerating means they're increasing faster & faster (speeding up).

We must #StayHome. Deaths lag cases by 2-3 wks. New cases now are deaths in Jan.
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 CASES in long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

LTC/RH cases are increasing fast everywhere except Atlantic Canada & the North. This happens as cases in the general population increase.

We MUST reduce new cases by staying home
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19 % TOTAL CASES in LTC/RHs

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)
Finally, the following tweets try to show #Canadians that the tragedy of this epidemic is not only the deaths.

It's also the tragedy of MANY thousands of Canadians who tonight are mourning or keeping vigil for the sick.

We must #StayHome to respect their fear & loss.
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19

🛑746 #Canadians died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑3,230 are hospitalized
🖤~22,380 are mourning
🖤~96,900 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19

🛑252 Québecois(es) died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑871 are hospitalized
🖤~7,560 are mourning
🖤~26,130 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#covid19Qc #qcpoli
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19

🛑170 Ontarians died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑808 are hospitalized
🖤~5,100 are mourning
🖤~24,240 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#covid19Ontario #onpoli
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19

🛑103 Manitobans died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑388 are hospitalized
🖤~3,090 are mourning
🖤~11,640 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#Covid19MB #mbpoli
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19

🛑20 Saskatchewan residents died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑133 are hospitalized
🖤~600 are mourning
🖤~3,990 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#COVID19SK #skpoli
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19

🛑94 Albertans died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑684 are hospitalized
🖤~2,820 are mourning
🖤~20,520 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#covid19AB #abpoli
Dec 11

#Canada #COVID19

🛑106 British Columbians died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑342 are hospitalized
🖤~3,180 are mourning
🖤~10,260 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#COVID19BC #bcpoli
Data: @covid_canada @OurWorldInData @NoLore @RyersonNIA.

During the holidays, travel only for essential reasons, don't shop in crowded malls & stores, don't socialize indoors w/ anyone except those under your roof.

Lives literally depend on your choices.

If you can, #StayHome

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More from @MoriartyLab

12 Dec
One last post for night about number of NEW #COVID19 deaths that will occur in #Canada between today Jan 1 if we don't slow spread NOW.

This is back of the envelope math. Most deaths by Jan 1 will occur from cases contracted before today. What we do now will change deaths in Jan
1. In last 7 days, #COVID19 deaths grew by 21%.

2. 746 #Canadians died of C19 in the last 7 days.

3. If deaths grow by 21% next wk, by the last night of Hanukkah, there will be 746 x 1.21= 903 new deaths

cont...
4. If deaths grow 21% Dec 19-25, by Christmas Day there will be 903 x 1.21=1092 new deaths.

5. If deaths grow 21% Dec 26-Jan 1, by New Year's Day there will be 1092 x 1.21=1322 new deaths.

TOTAL NEW #Canadian #COVID19 deaths fr Dec 12-Jan 1:
903 + 1092 + 1322 = 3317

#StayHome
Read 4 tweets
10 Dec
Starting thread about how many #Canadians will likely die of #COVID19 in next 3 wks

1. last day Hanukkah (Dec 18)
2. Christmas eve (Dec 24)
3. New Year's eve (Dec 31)

This is so those travelling, socializing indoors in next 3 wks remember the dying during celebrations of hope.
As of Tues Dec 8, #COVID19 deaths across #Canada were increasing 17%/wk.

BUT death rates are accelerating 11%/wk in last month, so this wk they'll increase 19%, next wk 21%, wk after 23%.

Let's do the math to translate into how many people will likely die on Dec 18, 24, 31.
Gah! I forgot to add image. Look at the red line on the graph on the right (Canada).

That shows how fast death rate is changing over time.

A flat line is steady increase by the same number of deaths/day. Upward slope is acceleration (speeding up).

Read 10 tweets
9 Dec
Dec 8

1 of every 34 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 71 in BC
1 in 113 in AB
1 in 161 in SK
1 in 53 in MB
1 in 35 in ON
1 in 21 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ COVID-19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 3,225 new LTC cases in last 7d Image
Image
Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Case fatality rates since start of epidemic Image
Read 32 tweets
8 Dec
#Canadians

In the last 7 days, there were 3,225 new #COVID19 cases in long-term/personal care & retirement homes.

995: ON
913: QC
567: AB
390: BC
334: MB
26: SK
0: Atlantic

1 of 4 Cdns w/ C19 in LTC/RH has died to date. We can expect 806 LTC deaths from this wk's cases alone.
Here's what the per capita case numbers look like for all provinces. Atlantic is all Atlantic provinces. North is YK, NWT, Nunavut. Wave 2 is since Aug 17.

AB now has more per cap LTC/RH cases than ON, which takes some doing. QC & MB....horrific. Image
Read 8 tweets
1 Dec
Nov 30 update

Since March, 1 of every 31 #Canadians diagnosed with #COVID19 has died.

1 in 75 in BC
1 in 108 in AB
1 in 182 in SK
1 in 54 in MB
1 in 33 in ON
1 in 20 in QC

1 of every 4 Canadians with COVID-19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died.
Nov 30

#COVID19 cases, deaths, case fatality rates

#Canada, provinces w/ >200 cases/100K people
•Country peers (high income, pop >20M)
•Long-term & personal care, retirement homes
•Weekly changes, rates of change

Data: @covid_canada @NoLore @RyersonNIA @OurWorldInData
Nov 30

#Canada #COVID19 Case Fatality Rates

From start of epidemic
Read 17 tweets
23 Nov
Nov 22

Since March, 1 of every 29 #Canadians diagnosed with #COVID19 has died

This video from medical educator @arslaanjavaeed & colleagues shows how deeply important it is for every single one of us to protect each other right now.

Please, we beg you, if you can, STAY HOME
@IrfanDhalla @picardonhealth @Aaron_Derfel @SharkawyMD @ninan_abraham1 @RyersonNIA @AlexUsherHESA @katecallen @drandrewb @dementiarehab @LeylaDAsadi @MargaretAtwood

Would you consider amplifying this video trying to help Canadians understand the seriousness of #COVID19 ?
Read 8 tweets

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