Tweet

Tara Moriarty

9 Dec, 32 tweets, 29 min read

Dec 8

1 of every 34 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 71 in BC
1 in 113 in AB
1 in 161 in SK
1 in 53 in MB
1 in 35 in ON
1 in 21 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ COVID-19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 3,225 new LTC cases in last 7d

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Case fatality rates since start of epidemic

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Case fatality rates since start of epidemic

Dec 8

1 of every 80 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died in Wave 2

1 in 99 in BC
1 in 144 in AB
1 in 273 in SK
1 in 45 in MB
1 in 90 in ON
1 in 59 in QC

1 of every 10 Cdns w/ COVID-19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

Last 7 days: 3,225 new LTC/RH cases

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Case fatality rates since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Case fatality rates since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

Dec 8

Since Feb

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian who DIED of #COVID19
this many ppl died of #COVID19 in other regions:

28: QC
8: ON
10: MB
2: SK
5: AB
3: BC
<1: North (YK, NWT, NU)

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn who died of COVID-19 in LTC/RH, 11 died of C19 in LTC in rest of #Canada

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

DEATHS since beginning of epidemic

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

DEATHS since beginning of epidemic

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

% total deaths since beginning of epidemic in LTC/RHs

Dec 8

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian who DIED of #COVID19
this many ppl died of #COVID19 in other regions:

65: QC
25: ON
104: MB
13: SK
33: AB
24: BC
3: North

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn who died of C19 in LTC/RH,
*93* died of C19 in LTC in rest of #Canada

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

DEATHS

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

DEATHS

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

% TOTAL DEATHS in LTC/RHs

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

📢TODAY we passed highest single day number of hospitalized cases in W1

In W1 this stabilized for 5d then declined.

📢TODAY in W2, hospitalizations are increasing 17%/wk & accelerating

We're still running as few tests/positive case as lowest pt in W1

Dec 8

Since Feb

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian diagnosed w/ #COVID19,
this many ppl were diagnosed in other regions:

19: QC
10: ON
15: MB
9: SK
17: AB
8: BC
2: North

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn diagnosed w/ C19 in LTC/RH
6 were diagnosed in LTC in rest of #Canada

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Since start of epidemic

CASES

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Since start of epidemic

CASES

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Since start of epidemic

% TOTAL CASES in LTC/RHs

Dec 8

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian diagnosed w/ #COVID19, this many ppl were diagnosed in other regions:

34: QC
20: ON
42: MB
24: SK
42: AB
21: BC
7: North

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn diagnosed w/ C19 in LTC/RH,
9 were diagnosed in LTC in rest of #Canada

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

CASES

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

CASES

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Long-term/personal care & retirement homes

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

% TOTAL CASES in LTC/RHs

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

🛑664 #Canadians died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑3,093 are hospitalized
🖤~19,920 are mourning
🖤~92,790 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

🛑229 Québecois(es) died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑835 are hospitalized
🖤~6,870 are mourning
🖤~25,050 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#covid19Qc #qcpoli

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

🛑153 Ontarians died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑794 are hospitalized
🖤~4,590 are mourning
🖤~23,820 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#COVID19Ontario #onpoli

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

🛑92 Manitobans died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑311 are hospitalized
🖤~2,760 are mourning
🖤~9,330 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#covid19mb #mbpoli

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

🛑15 Saskatchewan residents died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑144 are hospitalized
🖤~450 are mourning
🖤~4,320 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#COVID19SK #skpoli

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

🛑89 Albertans died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑654 are hospitalized
🖤~2,670 are mourning
🖤~19,260 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#COVID19AB #abpoli

Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

🛑86 British Columbians died of C19 in last 7 days
🛑352 are hospitalized
🖤~2,580 are mourning
🖤~10,560 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

For them, and to prevent further death #StayHome

#covid19bc #bcpoli

@arslaanjavaeed

Videos in multiple languages summarizing recent statistics prepared by @arslaanjavaeed are ready, but I have to download & re-upload & my internet is incredibly slow tonight.

Data for everything I've shown: @covid_canada @OurWorldInData @NoLore @RyersonNIA

#StayHome

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

12 Dec

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1337563186418098177

One last post for night about number of NEW #COVID19 deaths that will occur in #Canada between today Jan 1 if we don't slow spread NOW.

This is back of the envelope math. Most deaths by Jan 1 will occur from cases contracted before today. What we do now will change deaths in Jan

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1337563186418098177

1. In last 7 days, #COVID19 deaths grew by 21%.

2. 746 #Canadians died of C19 in the last 7 days.

3. If deaths grow by 21% next wk, by the last night of Hanukkah, there will be 746 x 1.21= 903 new deaths

cont...

4. If deaths grow 21% Dec 19-25, by Christmas Day there will be 903 x 1.21=1092 new deaths.

5. If deaths grow 21% Dec 26-Jan 1, by New Year's Day there will be 1092 x 1.21=1322 new deaths.

TOTAL NEW #Canadian #COVID19 deaths fr Dec 12-Jan 1:
903 + 1092 + 1322 = 3317

#StayHome

Read 4 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

12 Dec

Dec 11

Tonight's thread on #Canadian #COVID19 deaths, & long-term/personal care/retirement homes

We will have 1000s of deaths before New Year's. Vaccines will take months to protect most at-risk.

Please protect your fellow #Canadians.

If you can, #StayHome

Dec 11

1 of every 34 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 71 in BC
1 in 112 in AB
1 in 153 in SK
1 in 44 in MB
1 in 36 in ON
1 in 22 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns with C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 3,107 new LTC cases in last 7d

Dec 11

#Canadians

#COVID19 is in top 5 largest mortality events in Canadian history.

The only larger death tolls: World Wars I & II, 1918-1920 flu & AIDS

This week 746 Cdns died of C19. 1000s more will die before New Year's.

Please prevent more deaths by staying home.

Read 35 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

10 Dec

Starting thread about how many #Canadians will likely die of #COVID19 in next 3 wks

1. last day Hanukkah (Dec 18)
2. Christmas eve (Dec 24)
3. New Year's eve (Dec 31)

This is so those travelling, socializing indoors in next 3 wks remember the dying during celebrations of hope.

As of Tues Dec 8, #COVID19 deaths across #Canada were increasing 17%/wk.

BUT death rates are accelerating 11%/wk in last month, so this wk they'll increase 19%, next wk 21%, wk after 23%.

Let's do the math to translate into how many people will likely die on Dec 18, 24, 31.

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1336491369712521217?s=20

Gah! I forgot to add image. Look at the red line on the graph on the right (Canada).

That shows how fast death rate is changing over time.

A flat line is steady increase by the same number of deaths/day. Upward slope is acceleration (speeding up).

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1336491369712521217?s=20

Read 10 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

8 Dec

#Canadians

In the last 7 days, there were 3,225 new #COVID19 cases in long-term/personal care & retirement homes.

995: ON
913: QC
567: AB
390: BC
334: MB
26: SK
0: Atlantic

1 of 4 Cdns w/ C19 in LTC/RH has died to date. We can expect 806 LTC deaths from this wk's cases alone.

@picardonhealth

cc @picardonhealth @RyersonNIA @NoLore @NathanStall @DrSamirSinha

Here's what the per capita case numbers look like for all provinces. Atlantic is all Atlantic provinces. North is YK, NWT, Nunavut. Wave 2 is since Aug 17.

AB now has more per cap LTC/RH cases than ON, which takes some doing. QC & MB....horrific.

Read 8 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

1 Dec

Nov 30 update

Since March, 1 of every 31 #Canadians diagnosed with #COVID19 has died.

1 in 75 in BC
1 in 108 in AB
1 in 182 in SK
1 in 54 in MB
1 in 33 in ON
1 in 20 in QC

1 of every 4 Canadians with COVID-19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died.

@covid_canada

Nov 30

#COVID19 cases, deaths, case fatality rates

•#Canada, provinces w/ >200 cases/100K people
•Country peers (high income, pop >20M)
•Long-term & personal care, retirement homes
•Weekly changes, rates of change

Data: @covid_canada @NoLore @RyersonNIA @OurWorldInData

Nov 30

#Canada #COVID19 Case Fatality Rates

From start of epidemic

Read 17 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

23 Nov

@arslaanjavaeed

Nov 22

Since March, 1 of every 29 #Canadians diagnosed with #COVID19 has died

This video from medical educator @arslaanjavaeed & colleagues shows how deeply important it is for every single one of us to protect each other right now.

Please, we beg you, if you can, STAY HOME