#stockmarket WE update. Last wk I mentioned to be careful adding new money to the mkt, which was the correct call as we did see weakness. I mentioned watching the $DXY for signals as it did move off the lows. But 20day save on Fri above key lvls for #SPX is bullish for now....
#stockmarket As I've mentioned in previous updates, $ spikes are equity bearish & last wk we did see #DXY move off the lows. Whether this a minor bounce or bigger countertrend move is yet TBD. $DXY bounce from OS RSI now above 14day SMA & day 3 of price flip; needs to be watched.
#stockmarket I also discussed in last WE update that key global mkts were also flashing Demark exhaustion signals & something that could hurt US stock performance - see 5 day performance of major indices....
#stockmarket But last weeks weakness did work off some of the overbought nature of the indices in the ST. $SPY $QQQ now back to mid BB. McClellan Osc also back to neutral posture vs extreme overbought....
#stockmarket Despite what felt like a rough week was only an inside week for the #SPX and very close to one for the $QQQ....
#stockmarket Smart Money Index, which has been a cause for concern, is now off the lows, broke the DTL & at an important juncture. Breaking up here would be equity bullish...
#stockmarket and lets not forget the most important chart in all the land. The FED BS keeps making new highs. Tough to be too bearish when this keeps moving up....
#stockmarket Valueline Index is back to pre-covid hi resistance but still has room to ATH's. @ first blush I'd say thats bearish b/c its non-confirming, but given the impact Covid has had on SMB's & certain sectors, the closer we get to normalization the more these recover....
#stockmarket While I think the mkt has some room to the upside, #SPX demark 13 sells are looming (current 10 counts) & were postponed last wk. They could print 2H of the wk again which would require index strength. something to watch for sure...
#stockmarket volatility is also something I've discussed recently , as certain demark signals in various measures of volatility have posted. Vol did come back into the mkt last wk, $VVIX is pot'l signaling more to come. Last Demark 9, here saw the index rise 50% vs up 20% now...
#stockmarket $VIX also post the Demark 13 buy on the weekly now with recent flip up as indicated by the green 1 above the price bar. I keep saying, vol is cheap, not a bad place to buy some protection....
#stockmarket #SPX MACD has now crossed down & the #Nasdaq is approaching. Something to monitor as well as the recent rally is losing momentum....
#stockmarket Lastly, stocks +200 day - something I've talked about previously remains quite elevated, & @ lvls where reversals occur. Now w/ new daily Demark combo 13 sell, and Seq 13 to print this wk, to go along w/ weekly 13 sells. turning down could cause equity dislocation..
#stockmarket concl: still advise some caution as per last WE update, as not much has changed. The mkt is less OB now vs last wk, which is +, defending the 20day & key lvls are bullish, but possible #SPX 13 sells this wk keep me on guard. Until then, cautiously optimistic.

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More from @coiledspringcap

6 Dec
#stockmarket WE update. crazy bullish euphoria is all that comes to mind. But that doesn't mean it has to end. I think we are stretched which can be resolved by time or price. >3645 tough to be overly bearish, but putting new money to work up here seems foolish....
#stockmarket #SPX correlation to USD has been strong & previous spikes this yr have seen equity dislocation. This is the most important thing to watch IMO given how lopsided this trade has become. Demark has a 13 Seq/Combo & 9 buy in place/ w/ prop down tgt of 90.15 for $DXY...
#stockmarket the $DXY has closed below the lower bound 4x since the GFC ('08 it happened many times, Jan '18, this yr in July/Aug, Nov/Dec). As illustrated this usu is short lived. why would it be different this time? ...
Read 23 tweets
22 Nov
#stockmarket Last WE update I discussed dialing back on equities & despite + vaccine news the #SPX was down .77% for the wk. Risk still remains to the downside IMO, although can't be too bearish until we break the ranges. $SPY flag or lower high? ...
#stockmarket marked white circles (above) are showing heavy volume distribution days since Sept is not bullish. But for now the supply is getting absorbed. The Demark chart shows Day 2 of a price flip down following the completed 9-13-9 sell, and closed <5day EMA....
#stockmarket On the flip side, if $SPY can take out this flag to the upside, Demark propulsion up is active w/ a $390 tgt. If that happens, I would first measure any move w/ trend factor projections (367.44, 376.40, 385,37 - see red boxes)...
Read 16 tweets
15 Nov
#StockMarket WE update. crazy wk. Caught many offsides who were overloaded in tech. I suspect mkt leadership has shifted although it won't be linear. I am growing cautious & increasing hedges. As posted re #SPX last wk, Demark rare 9-13-9 sell printed w/ slo sto neg divergence...
#StockMarket #SPX here is another rarity & one for the bears, Demark 9-13-9 sell is also printing on the yearly chart, which has taken 40+ years to form. Not sure how to trade this but interesting nonetheless...
#stockmarket equally fascinating is that the #nasdaq is doing the same w/ a Demark 9-13-9 sell on the yearly. This in combination w/ the Demark combo & seq 13 sell on the weekly (combo printed last wk). Last time combo 13 sell printed here was the wk of Feb 20th. yikes!..
Read 21 tweets
9 Nov
#stockmarket WE update. My call last WE to buy in the 2H of the wk missed by 2 days. +7% wk & futures up again seems to be getting overheated. Clearly we have a break up of this DTL on #SPX futures, & now on Day 5 of 9 Demark sell set up. Trendfactor up lvls: 1x=3583, 1.5x=3673..
#stockmarket #SPX $SPY also will post Day 5 of 9 sell set up, which would come on Friday if the count is satisfied. Demark Trrendfactor up lvls to be mindful of: 1x up = 354.90, 1.5x=358.47
#stockmarket I posted this chart of the Smart Money Index last wk, as a reason to be concerned as it signaled the Oct peak. Still hovering near the lows but cluster of Demark 13 buys w/ 9 buy set up as well. Hopefully this turns up soon....
Read 14 tweets
6 Nov
$YALA getting tight. Image
$YALA whoa!
Image
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
#stockmarket WE Update. Wild week as expected & I expect more fireworks, but are we close to a bottom? #SPX futures bouncing around the 1.5x Demark trendfactor lvl of 3249 (was 3250 when I started this work). day 6 of Demark buy set up....
#stockmarket $SPY also bouncing around the 1.5x TF level of 324 & closed above. I said on Friday that I thought we were at a level where the mkt might bounce & it did. Day 5 of Demark buy set up. We are also into the green zone where there is price memory.....
#stockmarket $QQQ also on count 5 of Demark buy set up & bounced near the 2x TF level around $265. QQQ also approaching the red box where price memory exists....
Read 17 tweets

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