Profit-takers initiated weeks ago, we need to wait until they exhaust before there's full freedom to explore new highs.
It's a waiting game, likely until Jan 2021 for a full reset.
Till then beware of bull traps.
SOPR by @renato_shira is a lie-proof "survey of investors to determine their profit or loss for the coins that transacted in a day". We like to use SOPR because all investors lie about their losses and on-chain guys like smart sounding acronyms.
More details here:
Once SOPR starts declining, profit taking begets profit taking. We wait until all investors in profit who are going to sell to complete their sell off, when this happens, coins moving no longer carry profit, SOPR goes to 1.0, and we can move forward. ETA January perhaps.
Is it possible for SOPR not to reset? Yes, that's the grandma telling me to buy BTC signal.
I've used eSOPR in this analysis which is @glassnode's improvement over the original SOPR by viewing only coins moving between DIFFERENT investors (we do this by forensic clustering addresses together that smell like they belong to the same person).
I posted this map of the BTC supply distribution, but many asked "but what does this mean?".
Well, it says quite a lot, this is the whole ecosystem talking to us. Since people didn't see what I though was in plain sight, I'll break it down and add a bit more colour.
Bitcoin continues to distribute coins evenly. Publicly held and retail entities continue to gain more control of the supply while whales are reducing their control.
Remember the gold standard failed as a monetary standard due to centralisation of the supply
2) Retail drives macro cycles. When retail stack their sats at an increased rate, like they are doing right now, it's the fundamentals saying we are in the middle of a bull market.
I repeat; middle of a bull market. Traders in disbelief 2 months ago when this data was shown.
Ethereum supply shock well and truly at all time highs.
Looks like the market overpriced it in May but is probably underpricing it July / August.
Switching to an oscillator view of this, it's moving out of its no-brainer buy zone with the latest rally. But importantly, despite short term technicals being quite warm, it's far from over-bought on fundamentals.
Note: the latest supply burn from EIP-1559 is not accounted for in Glassnode data. But it should not impact these metrics just yet (~0.01% impact on this indicator for now). Glassnode will be rolling in EIP-1559 burn data soon.
Just a matter of patience and time before $42k breaks.
Strong HODLers, the Rick Astleys of this world, have been taking this opportunity to scoop large amounts of coinage while we're under the resistance ceiling.
Mid-macro view:
90 day moving average of coins moving to Mr Astley about to cross bullish.
The movement of coins to and from Mr Astley brought to you via forensic clustering of on-chain data courtesy of @glassnode.