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20 Dec, 12 tweets, 5 min read
Right now there is confusion in Europe about whether this new variant in the UK cited by Johnson as the reason for cancelling Christmas is actually a significant danger, or being used as political cover to reverse course on the UK's planned Christmas lockdown easing.
But given the urgency with which Johnson described the mutant strain yesterday, European governments aren't taking any chances.

Several countries including Belgium and the Netherlands have banned trains and flights coming from the UK, with immediate effect.
But before fears about this new strain run out of control and EU countries start shutting internal borders again, people need to listen to the experts about whether this new strain actually poses a threat.

Because there's no doubt that it's already in continental Europe.
Update: @EUCOpresident's cabinet is convening an emergency video call with EU national governments today "to share information at capitals level on the latest development on the virus variant and the measures related to it," according to an EU official.
If it turns out that the British prime minister exaggerated the seriousness of this new #COVID19 strain yesterday in order to give himself political cover to reverse his #Christmas lockdown easing policy, EU national governments are going to be furious.
The emergency video call of EU national governments on the new #COVID19 strain reported in England has ended.

They exchanged information on measures they intend to take in the coming hours. Council's Political Crisis Response Mechanism has been triggered and will meet tomorrow.
It looks like many EU countries are going to cancel flights and trains coming from the UK.

After the call Germany and Ireland announced thy will follow 🇧🇪🇳🇱🇮🇹, ban all flights/trains from UK starting tonight. More expected.
EU source tells me they just don't know how serious this new strain is, but for the moment they have to take the British prime minister at his word that it is dangerous enough to ban all travel from the UK.
Given its geography, Ireland's ban is a bit more complicated.

Flights from *Great Britain* are banned, but travel still allowed from Northern Ireland. Ferries will continue to cross the Irish Sea.

Emergency repatriation for Irish residents suddenly trapped in GB.
It will be easy for people to fly to Belfast from Great Britain and then go to Republic of Ireland, to avoid the travel ban.

Some may have been already planning this, given its the closest large airport for many in RoI.

A little preview of customs border problems after 1 Jan...
EU national government announcements of UK travel bans are pouring in now.

EU #IPCR committee will meet at 11am tomorrow to determine how dangerous this strain really is, coordinated by Germany.

On the same day the EU is set to approve the #Pfizer #COVID19 vaccine.
The UK government has known about this new #MutantStrain of #CoronaVirus since September.

It is unclear what may have changed in the course of the last week to make the UK government suddenly reverse course on lockdown and take the strain more seriously.
heraldscotland.com/news/18957873.…

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More from @DaveKeating

Dave Keating Profile picture
22 Dec
Breaking: EU Commission recommends countries drop all UK travel bans, including on freight.

It looks like they have concluded that Johnson may have been exaggerating the threat posed by the English mutation. ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Commission: “Until the end of December, free movement rules still apply to the UK. This means that Member States should not in principle refuse the entry of persons travelling from the UK.”

In other words, EU countries legally cannot ban entry to Brits until 1 January.
I would expect an announcement from Paris shortly that they are ending the UK freight ban.
Read 6 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
21 Dec
If a deal is agreed in the next days, the UK Parliament will be given only 1 day to approve it.

At 1,000 pages, there's no way MPs will be able to read it before voting on it.

But in any event, under UK law Johnson doesn't even need to ask MPs. He can ratify an FTA on his own.
Though parliamentary approval of a free trade deal isn't required by UK law, it is required by EU law.

The European Parliament has said it's now too late for them to approve before 1 Jan. To do so would be a "dereliction of democratic duty" MEPs say.
However, it appears that EU parliament can be bypassed for a *provisional* approval, which would only need assent of the 27 EU national governments in the Council.

But that only buys some time. Deal would eventually need approval by EP and probably also 27 national parliaments.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
12 Dec
#Brexit update: Anything could happen tomorrow, but my guess is nothing will happen.

Talks are continuing as we speak, but there's no phone call or announcement scheduled for tomorrow's "deadline".

It's possible we end tomorrow with no news.
Like all the past deadlines (June, Oct), they've simply said that on Sunday they'll assess 'whether enough progress has been made to continue talks'.

When each deadline came they've said 'we've made some small progress so let's continue'. That may happen again tomorrow.
But if they decide to continue, surely at this point those talks will be only a charade.

Neither side wants to be seen as the one walking away from the table. Johnson flirted with it in October, then chickened out.

Talks will technically continue but #NoDeal will be assured.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
12 Dec
UK government now saying that if the EU doesn't give Britain a deal in the next 2 days, they will send gunboats to protect their fish from French fishermen.

Expect the threats to get even wilder in the coming days. This is what panic looks like.
More on exactly what the UK government said here.

They knew exactly what headlines this wording would generate.
Among #NoDealBrexit contingency measures triggered by the EU Commission Thursday is a request to UK for continued reciprocal access by EU & UK vessels to each other's waters.

Without it there is a risk of sea violence in the English Channel in January.
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Read 4 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
11 Dec
Exactly how long of a reprieve does this "explanatory declaration" grant Hungary & Poland from being subject to #RuleOfLaw mechanism?

Nobody knows. Some lawyers saying 2 years. EU Justice Commissioner saying only a few months.
The (rather predictable) response to #EUBudget compromise from 🇭🇺: "Hungary and Poland claimed a historic victory in the #RuleOfLaw negotiations".

In reality, the mechanism has remained intact. Application may or may not be delayed up to 2 years, depending on legal developments. Image
Belgian PM @alexanderdecroo says an urgent procedure could be used to avoid delays in the ECJ ruling.

The courts are "impartial" he says. “I do not think that it is a victory of one over the other, this is just a good way going forward.”
Read 4 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
11 Dec
After all-night negotiations on the EU’s raised 2030 climate target (finally just adopted), a *very* short update on #Brexit is now happening.

Squeezed in at the last moment at 8am. These leaders are not changing their red lines.
An EU official says the #EUCO #Brexit update was indeed brief and that "the probability of a no deal is higher than of a deal".

Negotiations will resume today.
President @vonderleyen on #Brexit: "On level playing field we have repeatedly made clear to our UK partners that the principal of fair competition is a precondition to privileged access to the EU market. It is the largest single market in the world and it’s only fair." Image
Read 6 tweets

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