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CoiledSpringCapital

20 Dec, 16 tweets, 13 min read

#stockmarket WE update. Last WE I mentioned I was cautiously optimistic but could see some weakness in 2H of the wk as Demark could post a Seq 13 sell on the #SPX. Friday was weak but somewhat contained. I also mentioned that Propulsion up was still active w/ 3907 tgt....

#stockmarket Momentum tgts signify trend continuation but also could represent exhaustion points. The Russell also w/ new Demark 13 sells on the weekly chart to go w/ a new round of daily sell signals....

#stockmarket #NASDAQ could post a new combo 13 sell this wk (pot'l weds) & a seq 13 sell next wk (pot'l Tues), but much like the #SPX, has a propulsion up tgt in play of 13240....

#stockmarket Smart Money Index dipped last wk after getting rejected @ the resistance line but now back above it w/ a new swing high = encouraging...

#stockmarket My #SPX daily BB chart found support at the 8 day ema on Friday which was positive and keeps momentum in tact....

#stockmarket #SPX weekly BB starting to work off some of the excess which also could be construed +. But monthly BB still quite elevated & likely will need to resolve itself in time or price, but maybe not until Jan? ...

#stockmarket #nasdaq weekly elevated again & closed above the upper BB, which could argue for some rotation back into value. Monthly BB chart gearing up for 2nd consecutive close above the upper bound. Last 2x significant weakness ensued, possibly setting up for a rough Jan...

#stockmarket #SPX negative MACD cross still present vs last wk. Monthly #nasdaq MACD gap the highest in 20 years - probably a bit overdone here, don't you think? ....

#stockmarket #nasdaq RSI negatively diverging on this last swing to ATH's. #SPX is similar & turning down - new swing low would be a warning sign so needs to be monitored....

#stockmarket Weekly chart of #SPX Stocks over their 200day MA is very elevated and overlaid w/ Demark signals shows 13 combo sells piling up w/ a new Seq 13 sell next week. While being elevated is quite bullish, its also at levels where corrections begin....

#stockmarket #SPX Ad/Decline certainly adds to the bullish case as strong breadth is very bullish. But now pot'l with a lower high. Negatively diverging here would be a big warning sign of underlying trend weakness...

#stockmarket $VIX short positioning is extreme again and as per this chart, has recorded a cluster of Demark 13 buys. 5 of last 5 predicted vol spikes. buying protection just makes too much sense to me...

#stockmarket #SPX Hi/Lo index also at fairly elevated levels vs the last 2.5 years....

#stockmarket But as I've repeatedly mentioned, can't be too bearish when this chart makes new high every week....

#stockmarket CONL: seasonality is against the bears, so a major mkt dislocation into the end of the yr is unlikely IMO. That said, not a bad place to add hedges for Jan. Everyone is in the pool at this point. Levels to watch for this wk - below them & a ST top could be in.

@threadreaderapp

Lots of tech issues today so sorry its in piecemeal. This took 2x as long as it was supposed to bc of it. Hope you enjoy it. GL this wk or Happy Holidays if you are tuning out. @threadreaderapp unroll

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More from @coiledspringcap

CoiledSpringCapital

@coiledspringcap

13 Dec

#stockmarket WE update. Last wk I mentioned to be careful adding new money to the mkt, which was the correct call as we did see weakness. I mentioned watching the $DXY for signals as it did move off the lows. But 20day save on Fri above key lvls for #SPX is bullish for now....

#stockmarket As I've mentioned in previous updates, $ spikes are equity bearish & last wk we did see #DXY move off the lows. Whether this a minor bounce or bigger countertrend move is yet TBD. $DXY bounce from OS RSI now above 14day SMA & day 3 of price flip; needs to be watched.

#stockmarket I also discussed in last WE update that key global mkts were also flashing Demark exhaustion signals & something that could hurt US stock performance - see 5 day performance of major indices....

Read 15 tweets

CoiledSpringCapital

@coiledspringcap

6 Dec

#stockmarket WE update. crazy bullish euphoria is all that comes to mind. But that doesn't mean it has to end. I think we are stretched which can be resolved by time or price. >3645 tough to be overly bearish, but putting new money to work up here seems foolish....

#stockmarket #SPX correlation to USD has been strong & previous spikes this yr have seen equity dislocation. This is the most important thing to watch IMO given how lopsided this trade has become. Demark has a 13 Seq/Combo & 9 buy in place/ w/ prop down tgt of 90.15 for $DXY...

#stockmarket the $DXY has closed below the lower bound 4x since the GFC ('08 it happened many times, Jan '18, this yr in July/Aug, Nov/Dec). As illustrated this usu is short lived. why would it be different this time? ...

Read 23 tweets

CoiledSpringCapital

@coiledspringcap

22 Nov

#stockmarket Last WE update I discussed dialing back on equities & despite + vaccine news the #SPX was down .77% for the wk. Risk still remains to the downside IMO, although can't be too bearish until we break the ranges. $SPY flag or lower high? ...

#stockmarket marked white circles (above) are showing heavy volume distribution days since Sept is not bullish. But for now the supply is getting absorbed. The Demark chart shows Day 2 of a price flip down following the completed 9-13-9 sell, and closed <5day EMA....

#stockmarket On the flip side, if $SPY can take out this flag to the upside, Demark propulsion up is active w/ a $390 tgt. If that happens, I would first measure any move w/ trend factor projections (367.44, 376.40, 385,37 - see red boxes)...

Read 16 tweets

CoiledSpringCapital

@coiledspringcap

15 Nov

#StockMarket WE update. crazy wk. Caught many offsides who were overloaded in tech. I suspect mkt leadership has shifted although it won't be linear. I am growing cautious & increasing hedges. As posted re #SPX last wk, Demark rare 9-13-9 sell printed w/ slo sto neg divergence...

#StockMarket #SPX here is another rarity & one for the bears, Demark 9-13-9 sell is also printing on the yearly chart, which has taken 40+ years to form. Not sure how to trade this but interesting nonetheless...

#stockmarket equally fascinating is that the #nasdaq is doing the same w/ a Demark 9-13-9 sell on the yearly. This in combination w/ the Demark combo & seq 13 sell on the weekly (combo printed last wk). Last time combo 13 sell printed here was the wk of Feb 20th. yikes!..

Read 21 tweets

CoiledSpringCapital

@coiledspringcap

9 Nov

#stockmarket WE update. My call last WE to buy in the 2H of the wk missed by 2 days. +7% wk & futures up again seems to be getting overheated. Clearly we have a break up of this DTL on #SPX futures, & now on Day 5 of 9 Demark sell set up. Trendfactor up lvls: 1x=3583, 1.5x=3673..

#stockmarket #SPX $SPY also will post Day 5 of 9 sell set up, which would come on Friday if the count is satisfied. Demark Trrendfactor up lvls to be mindful of: 1x up = 354.90, 1.5x=358.47

#stockmarket I posted this chart of the Smart Money Index last wk, as a reason to be concerned as it signaled the Oct peak. Still hovering near the lows but cluster of Demark 13 buys w/ 9 buy set up as well. Hopefully this turns up soon....

Read 14 tweets