Thread by @antoniobrasse

1/12 Regardless of how the SEC's claim against @Ripple plays out, note that the worst case scenario right now is that #XRP trading will only stop in the US.

#xrpcommmunity #xrparmy #xrpthestandard #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Litecoin #BTC #ETH #LTC

2/12 Most trading of #XRP already happens outside the US. The rest of the planet sees XRP as a currency. Trading overseas will go on. Even if on the off chance the SEC is able to get a ruling that says XRP is still a security, a BD/ATS can offer XRP for trading to everyone.

3/12 Also at some point, ownership of #XRP will be decentralized enough that there will be no question that it is not a security. It appears node ownership is already decentralized enough around the globe.

4/12 Once that happens, anyone can list it again in the US. This is based on the SEC's own guidance around decentralized ownership & how they used that logic to rule that #ETH #Ethereum is currently not a #security despite Ethereum having run its own #illegal #ICO.

5/12 For Ripple's part, they really should be working extra hard to liquidate enough XRP (overseas of course) to have their ownership fall below 50%. They can also further make moves to run less #nodes. This would speed up removing all uncertainties around XRP.

6/12 Also keep in mind that a new SEC commissioner is coming in that is very crypto friendly. This will certainly impact the case. Other former & existing US regulators have also weighed in previously that they think XRP is a currency.

7/12 By the SEC waiting this long to act, they are now stepping on the toes of other US regulators. We can never be sure how that will play out. But you will likely see multiple US regulators throw their weight around in this case. A court will take all of this into consideration

8/12 While overseas regulators see XRP as a currency, that will play no role in this case as this is a United States matter. However applying the #HoweyTest to a #cryptocurrency that has never had an #ICO is unusual. Courts will need to rule how far the SEC can reach.

9/12 The SEC has lost cases before in this space & those rulings could come into play here. Also @Ripple has another case against it calling #XRP a security in which Ripple seems to currently be winning. That case will also come into play.

10/12 My personal opinion is that some settlement will be reached where a sum of money is paid to the SEC and XRP will not be ruled a security currently. That doesn't mean they say it isn't, but they won't say it is.

11/12 Just so its clear, these are all my own thoughts, not legal advice despite my regulatory background. I also have no interest in whether XRP goes up or down.

12/12 Since we are launching an exchange, our only interest is that there is trading activity for anything on our platform. We are not tied to any one particular #digitalasset.

@CryptoFinally thoughts?

@CryptoWendyO thoughts?

13/14 Currently the charges essentially only call for a fine, so worst case if the SEC gets everything they want, we see #XRP trading halted in the US temporarily. Eventually it will no longer be a security & can be traded widely again in the US. We'll see little impact overseas.

14/14 These are the logistics in the worst case. Reputational damage impact is unknown. People are often forgiving from what we have seen in this space, still using exchanges & cryptos that have continuously screwed them over, so there is the case that #XRP/#Ripple will be fine.