1/6 Since the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) & BPT Bands aren't available on a web-app (yet), I've gotten requests to periodically share updated charts.

As such, this is the first weekly BPT (Bands) update! 🌡️

All (5) charts & interpretations in this thread 👇 ImageImageImageImage
2/6 Based on yesterday's daily closing price, the current #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) is 4.58, which is comparable to the temperatures reached during 2013-Q1 & 2017-Q2 during the previous halving cycles.

Will the BPT run straight towards (at least) 6 again this cycle? 🤷‍♂️ Image
3/6 The current (3rd) post-halving BPT trajectory is more similar to the 2nd (r=0.83) than to the 1st (r=-0.16) halving cycle.

However, current 🌡️'s are more heated than at the same point in cycle 2. Are we in for a correction, or up for a more steep incline like in cycle 1? 👀 Image
4/6 Current #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) Bands:
- BPT0: $7,428
- BPT2: $15,727
- BPT6: $32,325
- BPT8: $40,624

The BPT Bands are starting to slope up though; BPT8 increased by $228.94 (+0.57%) yesterday. These bands will slope up faster if volatility keeps increasing! 🔥 ImageImage
5/6 When we visualize the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) Bands based on the post-halving time, we see that #Bitcoin's overall price levels jumped up an order of magnitude during each halving cycle so far. Will history repeat itself once again? 👀 Image
6/6 More information on the used metrics can be found here:

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More from @dilutionproof

30 Dec
1/8 Are you also excited about #Bitcoin's future? 🔥

Seven bullish #Bitcoin narratives for 2021:
1) Supply shortage ⚖️
2) Stimulus checks 💰
3) Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model 📈
4) Chasing gold 🥇
5) Bitcoin ETF 🕴️
6) Taproot 🌱
7) Lightning ⚡️

Thread 👇
2/8 Due to institutional FOMO, an unprecedented # of #Bitcoin were withdrawn from exchanges in 2020, exacerbating the halving-induced supply shortage

Due to #Bitcoin's inelastic supply, a supply shortage means a greater chance at 🚀 with new demand 🍾

3/8 Any USA citizen that saved their April 15h $1200 stimulus check in #Bitcoin would now have >$5000 (+318%)

With new stimulus checks coming in & more awareness of inflation, it is possible we'll see some buying pressure for hard assets come in soon 👀

Read 8 tweets
21 Dec
1/10 A rough prediction using the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) Bands:

If the current #Bitcoin post-halving bull run has a similar growth & volatility as the last one, this cycle could top at around $300k in October 2021 👀

Q&A with interpretation & nuances in this thread 👇
2/10 Q: What Is the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT)?

A: The BPT reflects the relative distance between the #Bitcoin price & its 4-year moving average. High BPT values represent potentially (over)heated price levels. 🌡️

More in this thread & article:
3/10 Q: What are the BPT Bands based on?

A: Technical Analysis:
- BPT0 (blue): the 4-year moving average
- BPT2 (green): both support & resistance levels at key market swings
- BPT6 (orange): resistance level during bull runs
- BPT8 (red): market cycles topped shortly afterwards
Read 10 tweets
20 Dec
1/16 Interesting analysis by @btconometrics 🔥

TL;DR: The #Bitcoin market appears to be moving in 4-year halving-related cycles. Based on a power regression using cycle bottoms & tops, this current cycle's top is estimated at $149,053.85.

Thread with summary & some thoughts 👇
2/16 #Bitcoin's largest and most well-known cycle is the halving cycle, which is the result of the block rewards (the newly minted coins that miners receive when they win the rights to create a new block) being cut in half every 210.000 blocks (~4 years).
3/16 If you divide the maximum price of each cycle by its minimum, you get the 'max to min price ratio'.

If you do a power regression on this (n=3) data, you get the attached figure.

Assuming $8,591 is this cycle's bottom, the model suggests that $149,053.85 will be its top.
Read 16 tweets
15 Dec
1/12 Just published "Bitcoin Price Temperature (Bands) - An indicator for the price bandwidth of #Bitcoin's 4-year cycle"

The BPT (Bands) is an improved version of the #Bitcoin Price Z-Scores that I shared before

dilutionproof.medium.com/bitcoin-price-…

I'll summarize in this thread 👇
2/12 The article first describes why the #Bitcoin price appears to move in 4-year cycles:
- Halvings occur every ~4 years
- Halvings create a supply shock that may drive up the price as described here:
- N=2.25, but price action so far supports the thesis
3/12 The #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) is a metric for the relative distance between the daily price and its 4-year moving average.

More simply put: high BPT values reflect potentially (over)heated prices, whereas low BPT values are a sign of potentially (under)cooled prices.
Read 12 tweets
13 May
1/n Alright, so what happened at this track yesterday that was so interesting? I'll try and summarize in this thread.
2/n Just for reference, if you have no idea what this is about and want to read up, this thread might help. If you speak Dutch, the @BitcoinMagNL article in my pinned tweet does the trick as well.

3/n After @moneymanolis gave an explanation of the fundamentals behind the #Bitcoin S2F model, @Kripfganz took the @ValueOfBitcoin stage.

One of the first things he did was give an example of a spurious regression: Bitcoin is correlated (r=.89) with UK non-EU net migration! 😄
Read 14 tweets
30 Apr
1/n Since @100trillionUSD posted his article, a lot of critical new developments in the #Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) modeling unfolded. The discussion is a bit complex & scattered, so I'll attempt to summarize recent events in a (hopefully) easy-to-understand) way.

A thread. 👇
2/n If you'd like a brief history of the evolution of the #Bitcoin S2F model before we dive into the matter at hand, this thread will get you up to speed:

3/n The discussion at hand was spurred by @100trillionUSD's latest article that introduced the 'Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model' (S2FX), but the discussion we're about to highlight itself is actually not about that model, but about its predecessors.
Read 34 tweets

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