6/8 So far, every #Bitcoin ETF application has been dismissed by the SEC, but with a new & supposedly 'pro-crypto' chairman coming in, this could change
An ETF would increase the demand for #Bitcoin and thus its price π
1/6 Since the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) & BPT Bands aren't available on a web-app (yet), I've gotten requests to periodically share updated charts.
As such, this is the first weekly BPT (Bands) update! π‘οΈ
All (5) charts & interpretations in this thread π
2/6 Based on yesterday's daily closing price, the current #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) is 4.58, which is comparable to the temperatures reached during 2013-Q1 & 2017-Q2 during the previous halving cycles.
Will the BPT run straight towards (at least) 6 again this cycle? π€·ββοΈ
3/6 The current (3rd) post-halving BPT trajectory is more similar to the 2nd (r=0.83) than to the 1st (r=-0.16) halving cycle.
However, current π‘οΈ's are more heated than at the same point in cycle 2. Are we in for a correction, or up for a more steep incline like in cycle 1? π
1/10 A rough prediction using the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) Bands:
If the current #Bitcoin post-halving bull run has a similar growth & volatility as the last one, this cycle could top at around $300k in October 2021 π
Q&A with interpretation & nuances in this thread π
2/10 Q: What Is the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT)?
A: The BPT reflects the relative distance between the #Bitcoin price & its 4-year moving average. High BPT values represent potentially (over)heated price levels. π‘οΈ
TL;DR: The #Bitcoin market appears to be moving in 4-year halving-related cycles. Based on a power regression using cycle bottoms & tops, this current cycle's top is estimated at $149,053.85.
2/16 #Bitcoin's largest and most well-known cycle is the halving cycle, which is the result of the block rewards (the newly minted coins that miners receive when they win the rights to create a new block) being cut in half every 210.000 blocks (~4 years).
3/16 If you divide the maximum price of each cycle by its minimum, you get the 'max to min price ratio'.
If you do a power regression on this (n=3) data, you get the attached figure.
Assuming $8,591 is this cycle's bottom, the model suggests that $149,053.85 will be its top.
2/12 The article first describes why the #Bitcoin price appears to move in 4-year cycles:
- Halvings occur every ~4 years
- Halvings create a supply shock that may drive up the price as described here:
2/n Just for reference, if you have no idea what this is about and want to read up, this thread might help. If you speak Dutch, the @BitcoinMagNL article in my pinned tweet does the trick as well.
1/n Since @100trillionUSD posted his article, a lot of critical new developments in the #Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) modeling unfolded. The discussion is a bit complex & scattered, so I'll attempt to summarize recent events in a (hopefully) easy-to-understand) way.
A thread. π
2/n If you'd like a brief history of the evolution of the #Bitcoin S2F model before we dive into the matter at hand, this thread will get you up to speed:
3/n The discussion at hand was spurred by @100trillionUSD's latest article that introduced the 'Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model' (S2FX), but the discussion we're about to highlight itself is actually not about that model, but about its predecessors.