1/8 Are you also excited about #Bitcoin's future? πŸ”₯

Seven bullish #Bitcoin narratives for 2021:
1) Supply shortage βš–οΈ
2) Stimulus checks πŸ’°
3) Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model πŸ“ˆ
4) Chasing gold πŸ₯‡
5) Bitcoin ETF πŸ•΄οΈ
6) Taproot 🌱
7) Lightning ⚑️

Thread πŸ‘‡
2/8 Due to institutional FOMO, an unprecedented # of #Bitcoin were withdrawn from exchanges in 2020, exacerbating the halving-induced supply shortage

Due to #Bitcoin's inelastic supply, a supply shortage means a greater chance at πŸš€ with new demand 🍾

3/8 Any USA citizen that saved their April 15h $1200 stimulus check in #Bitcoin would now have >$5000 (+318%)

With new stimulus checks coming in & more awareness of inflation, it is possible we'll see some buying pressure for hard assets come in soon πŸ‘€

4/8 Love it or hate it, but @100trillionUSD's Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model is holding up quite nicely due to #Bitcoin's recent steep price rise

If it stays on track, it is bound to remain a powerful πŸ‚ narrative in 2021

Chart by @hamal03

More on S2F: medium.com/swlh/modeling-…
5/8 #Bitcoin's S2F is already close to gold's & will surpass it in 2024 πŸ₯‡

As gold's up-and-coming hard money nephew, will #Bitcoin's total market value grow towards that of gold as well?

If it does, it would mean a current #Bitcoin price of ~$641k πŸ‘€

6/8 So far, every #Bitcoin ETF application has been dismissed by the SEC, but with a new & supposedly 'pro-crypto' chairman coming in, this could change

An ETF would increase the demand for #Bitcoin and thus its price πŸ“ˆ

PS: Not your πŸ”‘s, not your πŸͺ™s!

7/8 Activation of the Taproot protocol upgrade could provide a more fundamental πŸ‚ narrative

At 91.05% hashrate support (), we are close to the 95% threshold that was needed for SegWit πŸ‘€

More on Taproot & activation by @AaronvanW: bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bip-8…
8/8 Finally, a πŸ‚ market comes with increased blockspace fees that are essential for long-term protocol security via mining rewards

Unlike 2017, we now have the ⚑️network that could be adopted to relieve fee pressure for small payments

Bring on 2021! πŸ₯³

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @dilutionproof

28 Dec 20
1/6 Since the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) & BPT Bands aren't available on a web-app (yet), I've gotten requests to periodically share updated charts.

As such, this is the first weekly BPT (Bands) update! 🌑️

All (5) charts & interpretations in this thread πŸ‘‡ ImageImageImageImage
2/6 Based on yesterday's daily closing price, the current #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) is 4.58, which is comparable to the temperatures reached during 2013-Q1 & 2017-Q2 during the previous halving cycles.

Will the BPT run straight towards (at least) 6 again this cycle? πŸ€·β€β™‚οΈ Image
3/6 The current (3rd) post-halving BPT trajectory is more similar to the 2nd (r=0.83) than to the 1st (r=-0.16) halving cycle.

However, current 🌑️'s are more heated than at the same point in cycle 2. Are we in for a correction, or up for a more steep incline like in cycle 1? πŸ‘€ Image
Read 6 tweets
21 Dec 20
1/10 A rough prediction using the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) Bands:

If the current #Bitcoin post-halving bull run has a similar growth & volatility as the last one, this cycle could top at around $300k in October 2021 πŸ‘€

Q&A with interpretation & nuances in this thread πŸ‘‡
2/10 Q: What Is the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT)?

A: The BPT reflects the relative distance between the #Bitcoin price & its 4-year moving average. High BPT values represent potentially (over)heated price levels. 🌑️

More in this thread & article:
3/10 Q: What are the BPT Bands based on?

A: Technical Analysis:
- BPT0 (blue): the 4-year moving average
- BPT2 (green): both support & resistance levels at key market swings
- BPT6 (orange): resistance level during bull runs
- BPT8 (red): market cycles topped shortly afterwards
Read 10 tweets
20 Dec 20
1/16 Interesting analysis by @btconometrics πŸ”₯

TL;DR: The #Bitcoin market appears to be moving in 4-year halving-related cycles. Based on a power regression using cycle bottoms & tops, this current cycle's top is estimated at $149,053.85.

Thread with summary & some thoughts πŸ‘‡
2/16 #Bitcoin's largest and most well-known cycle is the halving cycle, which is the result of the block rewards (the newly minted coins that miners receive when they win the rights to create a new block) being cut in half every 210.000 blocks (~4 years).
3/16 If you divide the maximum price of each cycle by its minimum, you get the 'max to min price ratio'.

If you do a power regression on this (n=3) data, you get the attached figure.

Assuming $8,591 is this cycle's bottom, the model suggests that $149,053.85 will be its top.
Read 16 tweets
15 Dec 20
1/12 Just published "Bitcoin Price Temperature (Bands) - An indicator for the price bandwidth of #Bitcoin's 4-year cycle"

The BPT (Bands) is an improved version of the #Bitcoin Price Z-Scores that I shared before

dilutionproof.medium.com/bitcoin-price-…

I'll summarize in this thread πŸ‘‡
2/12 The article first describes why the #Bitcoin price appears to move in 4-year cycles:
- Halvings occur every ~4 years
- Halvings create a supply shock that may drive up the price as described here:
- N=2.25, but price action so far supports the thesis
3/12 The #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) is a metric for the relative distance between the daily price and its 4-year moving average.

More simply put: high BPT values reflect potentially (over)heated prices, whereas low BPT values are a sign of potentially (under)cooled prices.
Read 12 tweets
13 May 20
1/n Alright, so what happened at this track yesterday that was so interesting? I'll try and summarize in this thread.
2/n Just for reference, if you have no idea what this is about and want to read up, this thread might help. If you speak Dutch, the @BitcoinMagNL article in my pinned tweet does the trick as well.

3/n After @moneymanolis gave an explanation of the fundamentals behind the #Bitcoin S2F model, @Kripfganz took the @ValueOfBitcoin stage.

One of the first things he did was give an example of a spurious regression: Bitcoin is correlated (r=.89) with UK non-EU net migration! πŸ˜„
Read 14 tweets
30 Apr 20
1/n Since @100trillionUSD posted his article, a lot of critical new developments in the #Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) modeling unfolded. The discussion is a bit complex & scattered, so I'll attempt to summarize recent events in a (hopefully) easy-to-understand) way.

A thread. πŸ‘‡
2/n If you'd like a brief history of the evolution of the #Bitcoin S2F model before we dive into the matter at hand, this thread will get you up to speed:

3/n The discussion at hand was spurred by @100trillionUSD's latest article that introduced the 'Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model' (S2FX), but the discussion we're about to highlight itself is actually not about that model, but about its predecessors.
Read 34 tweets

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