Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️BEAST MODE—the new 🇬🇧B117 is a beast of a #SARSCoV2 variant. The variant adds ~ 0.4-0.7 to the R (Reproductive number). What could keep in check via containment, R<1, now with +0.4 added infectiousness, means the virus will go unchecked—very bad.
HT @GosiaGasperoPhD. #COVID19

2) In other words, what would bring down daily cases in half under the old common #SARSCoV2 strain down from 1000 to 500 cases a day, will instead yield a tripling of 3000 cases a day within just 2 weeks!!!

3) And this is just making a conservative gentle assumption of the *best case* scenario of +0.4 added to the R, not the +0.7, or even +0.9 mentioned by others.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1345382707996614657

4) And the ultimate worry is if B117 is more infectious than previous strain in kids. It’s possible—not certain yet, but possible.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1345408146853031936

5) To be clear, these numbers are well accepted. UK’s premier expert @IndependentSage group put out this notice that the variant is 40-80% more infectious. And calls the B117 variant causing pandemic to be “out of control” in the UK.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346064285978521605

6) I made a typo. I meant +0.5 in R. But math is the same.

7) Now how does the new B117 variant change public health measures? What used to work for Australia and Canada will no longer work anymore. Only aggressive New Zealand and Austria 1st wave restrictions would now be able to stop the more transmissible B117 strain.

8) Now suppose we want to chase #ZeroCovid with Austria 🇦🇹’s spring 2020 aggressive strategy... what would used to take just 45 days to reach zero #COVID19 cases with old variants suppressed to R=0.54, now would require **190 days** with B117 strain burning at R=864. 4x longer!!

9) Remember the children.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1345858404263321600