#CentralAfricanRepublic (THREAD)

1) 200 to 300 rebels attacked the capital #Bangui today (PK9, PK11, PK12 & Bimbo areas).

Govt, #Russian & #Rwandan troops repelled them. But the rebels remain in the hills & areas surroundings the capital.

Read @CrisisGroup statement 👇
2) The rebels were generally equipped or light weapons (including #AK47 & grenades), several #RPG & probably mortars.

No report of the casualties yet.
3) It's unlikely that they really wanted to size the capital, if not they would have come in bigger number.

They seem to be trying to isolate the capital from the rest of the country that they already control largely & install an attrition warfare just at the capital doors.
4) Its not excluded they may also be trying to play with the psychology of the Constitutional Court which will proclaim the final results of the elections in the coming days.
5) One thing is sure, with the new offensive of the rebellion, including at the capital doors, it becomes more difficult, if not unwise, to organize the second round of the elections for National Assembly.
6) #CAR urgently needs dialogue.

The subregion #ECCAS should enhance its efforts in that direction at the heads of State level & #AfricanUnion should consider #CAR crisis among its first priorities.

Countries like #Cameroon which always play ostrich diplomacy should step up.
7) Big international players such as #Russia & #France should play a political role.

If they dialogue among themselves & combine their efforts, the two countries could have enough leverage to push the key protagonists (#Touadera vs #Bozize & armed groups) to the dialogue table.
8) The alternative to dialogue is only a protracted war with huge possible consequences from each protagonist.

- For #Touadera, a protacted war could poison his second term, force him to become the president of #Bangui & he could even be overthrown at the end.
9) For #Bozize, a protracted war will condemn him and his family to a fugitive life for years, with risks of being militarily defeated, arrested or killed.
10) Finally, there is a risk of civil war. Militia "Les Requins" close to #Touadera arrested & reportedly executed some soldiers and civilians close to #Bozize. Bozize tribesmen Gbaya promised to retaliate if that continues.

This could be a dangerous escalation of the conflict

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More from @hansdemarie

28 Dec 20
1) CAR elections : preliminary lessons learned.

Thread (first part today, second part tomorrow)
2) #Touadera could be the biggest winner of the elections. Firstly, he will likely be reelected. Secondly, the recent events have weakened the opposition coalition #COD2020. Their failure to denounce #Bozize, when it became clear he was preparing a coup, eroded their reputation
3) #Russia, #Rwanda, #Portugal & #MINUSCA are among international winners.

# In only 3 weeks #MINUSCA & #Russia, whose reputations among the citizen were not always positive, have reversed those perceptions, at least for now.

# France on the contrary has it's back to the wall
Read 6 tweets

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