Thread by @DrEricDing

STUNNING—South African’s CDC has made a sobering declaration:

“We now know that mutations (K417N & E484K) have allowed #SARSCoV2 to become resistant to antibody neutralization.”

“Blood samples from *1/2 tested showed all neutralizing activity* was lost.”
nicd.ac.za/can-i-be-re-in…

2) “This suggests that they may no longer be protected from re-infection.”

📌They point out that of people who had recovered from #COVID19 from the 1st wave, “90% showed reduced immunity” to the new variant #B1351 (aka 501Y.V2)

📌in addition to 48% w/ “complete immune escape”

3) Why are mutations arising so fast these days??

➡️“as more people have become protected pressure on the virus has increased. A so-so spreader might no longer be able to, but variants with mutations that help them spread can take off”. statnews.com/2021/01/19/cor…

4) We’ve reached a point one year on and in certain parts of the world where the density of natural immunity is sufficient so that the variants that have got a fitness advantage … are more likely to emerge and spread,” said head of infectious diseases at Imperial College London

5) 🇿🇦 data from where?

New study from blood of 44 people infected in 1st wave in S Africa🇿🇦 was tested against new #SARSCoV2 variant #B1351 (501Y.V2)—found antibodies from 21 of 44 did not recognize the new variant—Almost half!

In this video:
#COVID19

6) This new E484K study is by 🇿🇦’s CDC @nicd_sa. That said, antibody immunity is not all of immunity. T cells also offer some spike protein recognizing immunity too (not measured).

Here is more studies on E484K—it’s in both 🇿🇦 & Brazil 🇧🇷 variants.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1348606324901359619?s=21

7) Support for worry about E484K? In another recent study by @jbloom_lab, E484 mutation (inside the #SARSCoV2’s spike’s critical receptor binding domain) seemed to escape neutralizing antibodies in 9 of 11 patients, some with **10x reductions in neutralizing** ability!

#COVID19

8) Any other troublesome variants besides the South Africa #B1351 or the Brazil 🇧🇷 #P1?

Maybe some suggestion of issues with the U.K. #B117 too... a 3.8x reduction in neutralization for a #B117 pseudo virus among people who got vaccine-derived immunity...

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1351233027410718720

9) TO BE CLEAR—Still take the vaccine. It should not be affected too much. Maybe a few % drop in efficacy — but 80-95% is still better than 0% protection if you don’t take it!

10) Dr Andersen is completely right that we should still take the vaccine even I’d worried about mutations. Some immunity is much better than none. That said, he is also worried about all the new mutations cropping up, and rightfully so.

https://twitter.com/k_g_andersen/status/1351278058544668672?s=21

11) I want to recognize @adamhamdy who has consistently pushed the concern of reinfection since beginning, and Dr @bealelab who voiced his concern in March 2020, and pointed out reinfection would negate any natural infection herd strategy.

https://twitter.com/bealelab/status/1238592191775244294

13) Update: there are two conflicting studies on the UK 🇬🇧 #b117 variant a whether it might evade antibodies. New BioNTech study says no. But the @GuptaR_lab study says yes—will have to see why. #COVID19

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1351955092845580291?s=21

14) Lots of virologists are concerned now. Reinfection seems like very real.

The results “strongly, strongly suggest that several mutations that we see in the 🇿🇦 variant are going to have a significant effect on the sensitivity to neutralization”
nytimes.com/2021/01/20/hea…

15) Here is my longer discussion on this major worry...

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1352058546163249152