Thread by @AuroraIntel

Thread: In the early hours of yesterday morning (22nd Jan. 2021) #Syria|n State Media confirmed that SAA Air Defense was engaging "hostile targets" over Syria. The early reports indicated multiple explosions across Damascus, Hama, Tartus and Safita region.

This appeared at the time to be a rather large, wide scale airstrike. After the event was over questions begun to be raised by a lot of observers focusing on Syria and the ME about the event. Latter that day news started to circulate confirming that Unknown Missile pieces had...

been found in #Jordan and near Al-Qadmus, #Syria, a wide area, later in the day, S-200 pieces near Damascus were found and also a Pantsir-S1 booster near Masyaf. It was weird, and I know I wasn't the only one that was thinking it was odd for all this AD to be "all over the place"

nothing was confirmed. As always I started several discussions with people I trust/sources who have some knowledge in certain things I don't have first hand, after a lot of back/forth and with the horrible news that civilians were killed in this strike (I'll come back to this)

in Kazo, Hama this would be the main AOI, at least we could confirm something had happened. Images begun to circulate regards to the remains of some munition, noted as a GBU39 SDB (Small Diameter Bomb). The #IDF has an array of munition it can use.

https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/1352541309802852352

The use of a SDB such as a GBU39 showed that the #IDF had conducted their Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) before this reported strike. Even noted by anti-Israeli's this is designed to be used for pinpoint targeting and not "large" explosive attacks like Delilahs/Spikes

The #IDF has reportedly conducted 10's of strikes across #Syria in 2020 alone. Multiple showing "pinpoint" accuracy so it is known that they have the capability of this through CDE. It was ever more important (as much as possible) to find what had...

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1332715048930856960

potentially, img. courtesy of @planetlabs shows the targeting of a large warehouse/storage facility just north of Hama Airbase, next to Kazo, Hama which appears to be the target. I spoke to the people I trust in regards to this site before publishing it, it was unknown, no ties..

to any known military activity etc, it was under the radar, this draws me to the assumption it was involved in some form of the Precision Guided Missile Program for #IRGC affiliated groups or #Hezbollah. Earlier on the 21st the IRGC affilated EP-FAB had also landed in Damascus

This program is going to be a key thing in 2021, #Hezbollah Sec-Gen Hassan Nasrallah has spoken about their increased capacity of these missiles openly in interviews/talks and about how they could accurately target any Military Site (CDE could you say?).

So, we now have the location that was targeted (it appears), the GBU39 has a range depending on model of 110km's. This distance aligns with the reports of #IDF/#IAF jet activity over Tripoli, #Lebanon during the strike, it is on that 110km~ range.

This would have allowed the GBU to get low as it entered Syria and glide to the target. Tragically civilians lives were lost in this event. The argument that always circulates in these events is "Israel shouldn't be bombing Syria" if you are on "one side of the fence" but the..

(Pin in previous tweet is for reference) "Syria shouldn't be allowing Iran to use it for transporting and harbouring weaponry to destroy Israel", this is the ever circling arguments of the Pro/Anti-Israel, Pro/Anti-Resistance, Pro/Anti-Pro and Pro/Anti-Anti, it's never ending.

Depending on what side you are on, you will make your own mind up about how the tragic event of the civilians being caught up in this happened. It would be ignorant and arrogant of me to try pretend I know the full answer as too why. There are several possibilities.

The GBU could have had a faulty GPS, could this have been picked up prior to being mounted to the BRU-61 Rack and the jet, maybe? I can't confirm this. Could there have been some EW jamming happening, causing this one to steer off course, maybe? I can't confirm this.

Could some of the multiple Air Defense Systems firing across the West of Syria actually managed to catch it mid air and cause it to divert slightly off path, maybe? I can't confirm this. This is only some of the potential ways it could have happened.

Appreciate this thread is a lot of back and forth, and yes, there are probably the usual grammar errors etc. But I think it makes sense.

First Question i’ve had; “Could Syrian Air Defense have also caused the damage to the civ house” I don’t know. Maybe? It’s possible, it’s happened in the past, it’s just another one of those “potential ways it could have happened”, but there was GBU39 remains there too.

Spice not spikes. Whoops